DCist joins all of New York in celebrating the 100th anniversary of the New York subway system. Check out Gothamist for full centennial coverage. Though Boston may have the nation's oldest subway line, New York's subway truly defined what transit is. It has had more influence on American culture and notions of urbanity than any other transportation system, including D.C.'s very own metrorail, despite the slogan as being "America's Subway."

As New York and its subway looks back and looks ahead, DCist thought it'd be a good time to take a look at the current status of WMATA's metrorail system. As it approaches 30 years of service, metrorail seems to be going through what would be best compared to as a mid-life crisis, where it is considering whether it made the best choices in its life thus far, additionally worrying about severe credit card debt, a receding hairline, clogging arteries and a decline in bladder control.

What do we mean? Check out the jump.

Ominous Signs. Yesterday morning, a friend of DCist found that the lights at the Rosslyn station on the Orange and Blue lines weren't working. While emergency lighting was operational, navigating the platform was a bit difficult. Then when DCist arrived at Union Station yesterday morning, we discovered that an escalator we normally use was out of service, with a sign saying it won't reopen until February. Then at the Tenleytown station this afternoon, we found another escalator being rebuilt (but without a crew working and a box of something called black nitrate sitting half open within reach of the general public). This all follows last week's surprise failure of a section of track near Judiciary Square, which paralyzed the Red Line during the morning rush hour as work crews quickly acted to fix it.

Metrorail is aging. Any rider knows that. It isn't in a tailspin, but boy, it's getting bad. WMATA is underfunded and lacks a dedicated funding source like most other transit systems have. We'll get to funding later, but let's look at metrorail's scary future.

Bad Scenarios. Last year, a motor beneath a rail car on the London Underground's Central Line somehow got loose, causing a derailment as a train pulled into the Chancery Lane station. Since the cause of the failure was unknown, the entire rail line was shut down for weeks, replaced with a shuttle bus, causing massive frustration across the British capital to the 600,000 people who used the busy line daily. While WMATA's metrorail carries about the same number of people as the Central Line does, you could envision a similar effect if there would be a major derailment. Imagine if serious defects were found in the new train cars operating on D.C.'s subways. It would be chaos.

What if the yet-to-be-completed metallurgical analysis of the cracked Red Line rail from last week shows that there are similar threats or additional rail flaws in different parts of the system, causing sections of track to shut as repairs are made? That seems to be unlikely, but what if that were true? We don't want to think about it. When the destruction of the World Trade Center put a number of New York City subway lines running beneath or adjacent to the site out of commission, the Metropolitan Transit Authority quickly rerouted train service down other lines. The New York subway has numerous connections with great flexibility. Metrorail doesn't. And this is the system's operational Achilles heel.

Unlike other transit systems, metrorail has very few connections between lines. If there is a massive failure of track, let's say in the tunnel between Rosslyn and Foggy Bottom, inbound Orange Line trains couldn't be rerouted to downtown via the Potomac River bridge the Yellow Line normally uses. (Virginia-bound Orange and Blue Line trains can access the Shady Grove-bound Red Line though a tunnel between McPherson Square and Farragut North. Similarly, Red Line trains headed toward Glenmont can head to Greenbelt on the Green Line via a connection near Fort Totten.)

Additionally, the lack of express or maintenance tracks in the system bogs down the system. As we've seen time after time, when this happens, trains going in opposite directions must take turns sharing the same track.

While metrorail has five lines, it has in reality just three tunnels crossing downtown, as the Orange and Blue lines share trackage, as does the Green and Yellow. The downtown subway tunnels, especially the one shared by Orange and Blue Line trains, will have difficulty squeezing more trains through. And while many people are pushing the proposed Orange Line spur to Dulles Airport, they don't consider the consequences downtown. The Rosslyn-Foggy Bottom tunnel beneath the Potomac will face a considerable squeeze in the coming years. (There has been talk of shifting some Blue Line trains in Virginia to the Yellow Line bridge over the Potomac as a solution.) Trains to Dulles will only add to the problem.

It's like having an obese cardiac patient eat a diet of Twinkies without widening the arteries leading to the aorta. And metrorail has many blood clots and more are sure to pop up unexpectedly. This wasn't anticipated 30 years ago. Perhaps it should have. Many of the problems WMATA faces today are not its fault, but were inherited. But DCist thinks that many of the system's design flaws should have been anticipated years ago. This all shows a lack of foresight by WMATA when the system was initially planned. We feel sorry for riders as the current WMATA administration tries to find a way out of the mess. The riding public is angry. WMATA admits that its service is declining considerably. We feel bad for the situation WMATA is in but have little sympathy when it flubs its response to various problems. We doubt we could run a transit agency much better, but as the transit system in the nation's capital, we expect better.

A Solution, But Don't Expect DCist to Pay for It. London, realizing that the Tube is overloaded and threatening the economic health of the capital, is planning Crossrail, a very expensive new tunnel through the center of the city. On this side the pond, the feds, if they want a stable transit system to get the worker bees that turn the wheels of government to their offices on time, should realize that the capital's metrorail system needs to enter Phase Two of its development. So DCist will offer ideas for Phase Two, and we'll wait for someone else to carry the torch to get it done (and find money to pay for it).

So Phase Two: It's been a while since there's been talk of a new crosstown subway tunnel. Of course there is no money for one, but as the system gets more crowded and congested, the nation's capital will be forced to construct one. Since DCist used to work in the transit sector, here's our proposal. A new crosstown subway via M or L streets could connect Union Station to a third Potomac River crossing to Virginia.

Trains that use the current Orange or Blue lines in Virginia could avoid the crunch between Rosslyn and Metro Center by using the new crosstown subway. A deep, deep tunnel would lie beneath Georgetown (with a station), and would link Union Station (the region's transit hub) via the West End, the Farragut Square area, Thomas Circle and Mount Vernon Square. To the east, the new line could continue across Capitol Hill or H Street NE to new destinations in Maryland or link to the Orange and Blue lines across the Anacostia River.

This new crosstown mainline would have express tracks (to create greater flexibility should something go wrong, or even accommodate express service to Dulles Airport via the Orange Line in Arlington). To aid growth in Montgomery County, a spur could run up Wisconsin Avenue from Georgetown to connect to the Red Line in Tenleytown, with the possibility with a new tunnel going toward the I-270 corridor. That way, trains from the upper Red Line could bypass problems downtown as well via the new tunnel.

Expanding the system, all the while creating greater connectivity, would unclog some of the systems arteries. It's an ambitious plan, with a lot of tunnel digging, sort of like the "Second System" New York was considering in 1929. As the nation's capital, we are entitled to a great transit system. We should dream big.

Too Many People. But maybe we're getting ahead of ourselves. There are other problems to deal with. Metrorail is a victim of its own success. Planners never envisioned the numbers of people that would use the system. As the Orange Line fills to capacity, the introduction of eight-car trains will help alleviate crowding. But that solution brings problems too.

Stations downtown will not be able to accommodate additional passengers in years to come. Look at this chart from the Post. Even if eight-car trains are introduced across the system to accommodate crowds, many stations won't be able to handle more people. In 2025, Union Station's Red Line platforms are forecasted to see an average weekday ridership of 127,000 people, a 119 percent increase from 2000. Metro Center will see 82,000 people daily. Rosslyn will see a 65 percent increase in daily ridership through 2025. As crowding increasingly becomes a life safety issue, additional station exits will be needed, as well as more staircases, more escalators and more platform space.

What will this take? Sadly, a bunch of people lined up on a crowded platform accidentally pushed in front of a train may alert everyone to the growing threat. (In the meantime, don't stand too close to the edge.)

A Waterlogged Red Line. Deep below Upper Northwest, the Red Line is leaking. You can see it. In stations beneath Connecticut Avenue, you can see water marks on the concrete barrel vaulted ceilings. In the recessed lighting beside the tracks, moss and other vegetation grows. Over at Tenleytown, there's a patch mark beneath the mezzanine on the western wall where water once freely flowed out of the concrete. And these are things the normal passenger can see in the stations. Tunnels are dark.

When metrorail tunnels were dug deep under Washington, it was thought that buffering them with enough concrete would be adequate to keep water from finding its way in. Mother Nature, of course, has won that battle. This is not a problem that has been discussed in quite some time. While pumps can keep the tracks dry, what happens when they are overwhelmed? New Yorkers were reminded of the power of water last month when heavy rains shut down a number of lines, sending the transit system into shock.

No Funds. WMATA is pushing its Metro Matters program. In it, there are funding goals to meet some short-term problems (deferred maintenance, new rail cars, upgraded communications). While the funding will help, this is like throwing a life jacket to Titanic passengers who missed the lifeboats as the ship is sinking. The Brookings Institution put together a fascinating report, "Deficits by Design," in June identifying the unique financial situation WMATA is in. In short, since WMATA has to beg the federal government and the jurisdictions it serves in Maryland, Virginia and the District for funds, it is severely limited in what it can do to plot a positive path to good financial health. Other systems have a dedicated funding stream for operational costs. That seems to make good sense.

(If it makes anyone feel better, the MTA in New York has a few financial problems of its own to deal with.)

In the meantime, WMATA can only propose relatively low-cost solutions to improve its service. For instance, light-rail corridors have been identified across the city and plans are underway to launch a system by starting a demonstration line in Anacostia. While the return of streetcars to the city's thoroughfares will increase intra-District connectivity, it does little to solve the growing problem of getting people between the city and suburbs.

Looking to the Future. So what does all of this signal? Yes, problems are ahead. (They're already here.) And more are coming. Get ready for a fun ride. Perhaps it's time for a monorail.