House Races to Watch
Election Night will be a frenzy of returns, predictions and analysis. While all eyes will be on the Race for the White House, don't forget that there will be many tight races that will determine the make-up of Congress and control of the House and the Senate. So when you're watching news coverage on Election Night, we'd like to point you to a few interesting races that will be worth watching. For the time being we'll start with the House of Representatives.
House Democrats publicly say that they can close their 12-seat deficit and some optimists say the potential is there to retake the House. House Republicans say that is foolish, but if all of the Democrats' planets are aligned, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat of San Francisco, could become the first woman Speaker of the House. So while the Democrats may pick up seats, it is probably unlikely they will clinch the majority.
The 'Texas 5': Texas Republicans, led by House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, successfully had the Lone State State's Congressional district lines redrawn to help elect more GOP members to the state's House delegation in Washington. While Democrats tried to thwart the plan (by fleeing across state lines to Oklahoma and New Mexico to deny a quorum in Austin), the plan made it through endangering five Democratic incumbents: Charlie Stemholm, Max Sandlin, Chet Edwards, Martin Frost and Nick Lampson. (Edwards is seen as having the best shot at fighting off a GOP challengers, but the rest could be doomed.) The race member-vs.-member race between Frost and Pete Sessions is worth watching for two reasons: (1) It will be one of the most expensive House races in history, and (2) Frost's defeat would be viewed as a personal victory for Majority Leader DeLay, as they are enemies. If Frost wins, DeLay, who was recently admonished twice by the House ethics committee, will have egg on his face.
Surprising Race in Virginia: Democrats are high on their chances of taking the 2nd district seat away from the GOP. Rep. Ed Schrock (right) suddenly resigned after Blogactive.com outed the Congressman. (Schrock never confirmed the blog's allegations.) Democrat David Ashe, an Iraq war vet, has a real chance at defeating the GOP candidate Thelma Drake.
Connecticut Democrats Rising?: Democrats could retake two GOP-held seats in the Nutmeg State. With anti-Bush sentiment rising in Connecticut, Democrat Diane Farrell has been seen as having a good shot at unseating Rep. Christopher Shays (R); additionally Rep. Rob Simmons could be upset when the returns come in.
Illinois' Crane in Trouble: One of the most closely watched House races will be in Chicago's suburbs where Rep. Phil Crane, the longest-serving Republican in the House (he took over for Donald Rumsfeld when the current Defense secretary left the House). Democrats are high on the chances of Melissa Bean (left) in taking Crane's seat.
Retirements in Upstate New York Create New Chances: At the beginning of the 2004 election cycle, Democrats and Republicans had did not expect that two seats in Upstate New York to open up. But Republican Reps. Amo Houghton and Jack Quinn announced their retirements and the seats went into play. Quinn's Buffalo-area 27th district seat is a very heavily Democratic district, but the labor-friendly Republican had been able to maintain control over the seat for many terms. Quinn's heir apparent Nancy Naples has been trying to cast herself in Quinn's mold, but Democrats think Brian Higgins can take the seat out of the Republican column. It is very close. Over in New York's Southern Tier, Republicans were high on the chances of Randy Kuhl to keep Houghton's seat in the GOP category. But when ugly divorce records were leaked to the media, the hopes of 27 year-old Democratic challenger Samara Barend were lifted, but now it appears that Barend's campaign may have been involved in the release of the documents and her chances may be in trouble.
Keeping an Eye on Two Races in Washington State: When Republican George Nethercutt announced his retirement from the House to run against Democratic Senator Patty Murray, his eastern Washington became open. Businessman Don Barbieri has a shot of bringing this seat back into the Democratic column (it is the seat of former Democratic Speaker Tom Foley), but Cathy McMorris probably has the upper hand in the GOP-leaning 5th disrict. Then over in the Seattle suburbs, the retirement of Republican Jennifer Dunn from the House has brought a local radio host, Democrat Dave Ross, to face off with Republican Dave Reichert, the King County sheriff. This race is in the 8th district will be one to watch as the 8th is a major swing district.
A Little Bit of Hollywood in Kentucky: The retirement of Democrat Ken Lucas in the Northern Kentucky 4th district brought this increasingly Republican district into play. The Republicans have Geoff Davis facing off against Democrat Nick Clooney, the father of actor George Clooney. The elder Clooney, who is the brother of the late Rosemary Clooney, is a local Cincinnati television newsman. The race has been hard to read, and is a tossup.
Pennsylvania Pick-ups?: The Keystone State is a major presidential battleground state, but also has a few races that should be worth watching, especially in suburban Philadelphia.
Other Races to Watch: New Mexico 1: Rep. Heather Wilson (R) is facing a tough challenge from Senate President Pro Tem Richard Romero (D), but Wilson looks like she could pull through ... Utah 2: Rep. Jim Matheson's vast Utah district is one of the most GOP-friendly districts in the country, but the Democrat has successfully fought off GOP efforts to unseat him in the past. Can Matheson do it again? 
... Missouri 5: Former Kansas City Mayor Emanuel Cleaver (right) should be coasting to an easy victory because of the friendly territory he is running in, but revelations about his car wash business and false birth records are giving him trouble against Republican Jeanne Patterson ... Ohio 14: While it looks like 26 year-old shopping mall heiress Capri Cafaro, a Democrat, will lose to Rep. Steven LaTourette, her personal cash and the fact that this race is near Traficant country means that this should be a race to keep tabs on ... Georgia 12: Democrats think that Rep. Max Burns, a Republican, should not be holding office in a district that was drawn to benefit Democrats. But Democrat John Barrow may have trouble unseating the incumbent.