The Mayoral Betting Pool, Take 2

Fenty: Alone at the Top
There seem to be obvious pros and cons to being a declared candidate for a contest not set to occur for over a year. Fenty, at right, can very well claim he was there first -- he explored first, polled first, and announced first. In a race that may soon be crowded by other mayoral contenders, Fenty may have gotten a leg up in throwing his hat into the ring this early. He has more time to raise money, scope out issues, establish links to the community, and most importantly, milk the press that may come from not only being a member of the City Council, but a member of the City Council running for mayor.

Conversely, Fenty is going to have to deal with the fact that everything he does from now on -- be it introducing legislation, shaking hands with local residents, or giving speeches -- will be painted with the "Oh, he's running for mayor" brush. Fenty is no longer a member of the City Council whose actions are aimed at improving the lives of District residents -- instead, he is a mayoral candidate constantly trying to burnish his credentials and convince voters that he's the man they should choose. His early announcement has also made him an easy target for other mayoral hopefuls that may enter the race in his wake -- they can both target him (D.C. Mayor Anthony Williams already has) and learn from his mistakes.

Fenty's go-getter attitude has both costs and benefits, both of which he will start experiencing once the initial sheen of candidacy wears off.

Who's Next?
Vincent Orange (D-Ward 5) has been dropping the most obvious hints that he's next to utter the m-bomb and declare his candidacy. The way his exploratory process has gone, though -- with poorly produced and executed polling and an awkward reception from the local media -- Orange may very well do best with waiting the summer out before entering the race. His campaign has already stumbled once or twice, not exactly the things you want voters and reporters inquiring about as you go for the top.

Jack Evans (D-Ward 2) recently completed his own polling, querying 1,000 District residents on how they would vote given different mayoral lineups and what issues are of most importance to them. He relied on pollster Diane Feldman, who polled a larger-than-usual sample of District residents, indicating that Evans wants the best possible picture of the race before him prior to any formal announcement. Evans has refused so far to form an exploratory committee or openly hint at when he might be announcing his intentions, indicating any announcement might be long in coming. A DCist source (a Deep Throat of our own!) with knowledge of D.C. politics noted that Evans was looking to wrap up his Council business before summer recess begins in mid-July -- including the budget and the stadium-financing plan -- and was approaching the decision to running more quietly and introspectively than some of his potential competitors. This might serve Evans well, and may best allow him to organize a campaign that responds both to voters needs and his competition.

A. Scott Bolden may be the least known of the potential candidates, but based on a May 11 Letter to the Editor published in the Post in response to an editorial written by longtime columnist Colbert King, this is hardly phasing him:

Mr. King suggested that my loss in September 2004 for reelection to chair of the D.C. Democratic Party somehow disqualifies me as a viable mayoral candidate. But in that race, I received more than 16,000 votes. That is more votes than any mayoral contender has received in a primary running citywide in the past two elections -- other than the mayor and chairman of the D.C. Council.

Bolden recently finished a poll of his own, conducted by Lester & Associates, a D.C.-based polling firm. The poll feautured 11 substantive questions, some cluing in on possible campaign issues, some on voter preferences given two different slates of candidates for mayor, and one looking to identify support for a possible run for an At-Large Council seat against Councilman Phil Mendelson (D-At Large). Bolden also tested voter opinion on his personal bio, which according to a DCist source identified his status as an African-American before listing any professional qualifications or experiences -- indication enough that race may play a factor in the 2006 race.

Mayor Anthony Williams is still playing the "maybe, maybe not" game. While his wife's wishes and his private-sector ambition may ultimately decide whether or not he runs for a third term, Williams has plenty left to deal with before launching a new campaign. He hasn't muzzled himself as to his opinions on those lining up to take his job, though, and he surely wouldn't want to leave office without a positive legacy in the making.

Little news has come from lobbyist Michael Brown or Council Chair Linda Cropp, but recent news that Cropp wasn't going to hightail it out of the District next year set off a round of speculatory talk -- mayor or Council Chair? Her decision to jump up the ladder or stay put may very well affect the dynamics of the race and open up a whole other bidding process for her seat, should she choose to run for mayor.

And what about Marion Barry? Since having been elected to the City Council to represent Ward 8 last November, Barry, pictured at left, has been surprisingly quiet. While any guess as to his future ambitions would be premature, it's always a safe bet that Barry will do exactly what few would expect. His silence may quite possibly serve to propel an under-the-radar, grassroots mayoral candidacy, picking up on the widespread support he enjoys east of the Anacostia and exploiting the perception of Williams as a mayor more concerned with catering to business than to the city's majority African-American population. If the District has learned anything from when Barry was first elected mayor in 1978, it's to never underestimate the perennial politician.

DCist will continue reporting on and analyzing the 2006 mayoral race as it heats up. We will be looking into the issues that might shape candidate's platforms, the city's racial and social dynamics and how those might play into the election, and what past elections may teach current candidates as to what it takes to win the election.

>>DCist's first take on the mayoral race.