Who Will Williams Endorse?
Last Thursday D.C. Mayor Anthony Williams finally ended the speculation as to his plans for 2006 -- he announced he would not run for a third term. But while his decision finally provides some clarity for the current crop of mayoral contenders -- they no longer have to live with the election-altering specter of Williams vying for the job again -- it also provides the current mayor the powerful opportunity to endorse a successor.
The power of endorsement -- especially in a city whose next mayor will only be the fifth elected mayor since home rule was established in 1975 -- will carry both benefits and liabilities for the candidate who receives it. As the Post noted both in its reporting and editorializing, Williams will leave office next year with a record of being an effective manager whose policies brought financial sanity to the city while alienating some of its poorest residents. Whoever receives his endorsement will have to skillfully exploit the goods while promising to correct the bads -- all while avoiding the appearance of being a Williams suck-up or criticizing him too harshly. And while a source in the mayor's office informed us that Williams will not announce any endorsements until early next year, speculation is in order.
We can quickly rule out Council-member Adrian Fenty (D-Ward 4), whose campaign has been constructed around exploiting lower class disillusionment with Williams' policies and who has already been a target of a mayoral broadside. Lobbyist Michael Brown is also a no-no, having been dismissed by Williams from his position on the D.C. Boxing and Wrestling Commission for using the post to lay the foundation for his candidacy. Council-member Vincent Orange (D-Ward 5) and former telecom executive Marie Johns are doubtfuls, being the longshots that they currently are.
That would leave Council Chair Linda Cropp as the only possible endorsee in the current field. Spare the brush-up over the baseball financing deal late last year, Williams may see Cropp as a responsible, effective, and, most importantly, an experienced politician worthy of his endorsement. And while Cropp has dissented from the Williams line on various occasions, she is also seen as someone willing and able to make tough decisions that, while politically unpopular, may best serve the District's bottom line.
If only things were that simple. Williams may also seek to shake things up, choosing to anoint an outsider candidate, possibly one from within the ranks of his own administration. This seems more and more likely once one considers that Williams himself rose to power this way in 1998, and, as a DCist source noted, given enough time, the candidates serving on the Council may well spend more time tearing each other down than legislating -- making them damaged goods in Williams' eyes.
Of course, an endorsement from a popular politician is hardly a guarantee of an electoral victory (see Gore, Al, endorsement of Howard Dean, 2004). The most it can do is add needed visibility and prestige to a candidate's campaign, and given the political dynamics of a given election, convince voters that the best of the past will continue unchanged. Whether Cropp or another candidate, Williams' endorsement will not definitively alter that dynamics of the mayoral race, though it could make them more interesting.