In the past DCist has speculated on who might run for mayor. Now that the mayoral lineup has shaped up, we've got greener pastures to move on to. And given that the new biggest story in District politics is the emerging scandal of the $425 million in unauthorized payments and no-bid contracts (we're going to jump the gun here and designate it "Contract-gate"), we figure it's high time to start guessing who might face firing, who might up and resign, and who, if anyone, might face criminal charges.

Last night at a mayoral forum council chair Linda Cropp announced that she had requested a full investigation by D.C. Auditor Deborah K. Nichols, while Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) similarly announced he would ask the Government Accounting Office to look into the allegations. Council-member Vincent Orange (D-Ward 5), chairman of the council's Committee on Government Operations, has announced that he will hold hearings on the matter, during which he will surely make a point to go after officials of every level. It's only a matter of time until the pink slips, letters of resignation, or indictments start coming down.

Even if the hearings and investigations reveal no explicit wrong-doing more than grotesque incompetence, someone will have to go. Since so much in politics is perception, D.C. Mayor Anthony Williams may have to stem his administration's bleeding by dismissing certain employees linked to the scandal. The question is, who?

Below, our best guesses.

Fired
Natwar Gandhi: Gandhi, the city's Chief Financial Officer, is the top of the pecking order on this one. His is the office charged with overseeing the city's finances. Essentially, the buck stops with him, and given that he's already walking wounded from having under-estimated how much the city would need to spend to acquire the land for the stadium, he's our best pick for the first to be fired. His comments to the Post, which ranged from quasi-apology to shameless defense, haven't helped his case much. When quoted as saying, "I will be damned if a child is without textbooks or an AIDS patient is without medicine just because some bureaucrat did not file the paperwork right," Gandhi expresses a profound misunderstanding of what exactly is being charged. His office's creative contracting may well have gotten that child their textbook and that AIDS patient their medication, but considering that the no-bid contracts in question cost the city at least $50 million more than it should have paid for the services rendered (and let's be clear -- not all those contracts went to provide much-needed social services), there aren't going to be a lot of sympathetic ears out there.

Robert Bobb: Technically, Bobb, the city administrator, is above Gandhi, but he may be shielded by the fact that his daily work does not involve the minutiae of contracts and procurement. Nonetheless, D.C. Auditor Deborah K. Nichols has already gone after Bobb for playing fast and loose with contracting regulations, so a good guess is that he either endorsed the practices as reported by the Post or did nothing to stop them. Bobb may very well be the high-level fire Williams needs to take pressure off of himself.

Suzanne Peck: The District's Chief Technology Officer seemed particular un-repentant about her role in the contracting scandal, which included 146 no-bid contracts worth $13 million to a consulting firm run by a former employee of Peck's office. The Post noted that Peck "bristles at the constraints of government purchasing," and has encouraged employees to "exploit the hell out of the gray area" when it comes to procurement and contracts. Her disdain for those constraints led the D.C. Inspector General to find that Peck's no-bid contracts had led her agency to overpay contractors by 24 percent on average, a practice Peck has defended as allowing for efficiency and quality in the product required. This woman has all but written out a confession. She'll be fired.

Resign
Anthony F. Pompa: Pompa, head of accounting for Gandhi, made a grave mistake in not noticing the pattern of illegal spending that the Post reported on. The only thing that might save Pompa from outright dismissal is that he was the first official to admit wrong-doing (he was quoted as saying, "We screwed up. We shouldn't do those things. We're going to clean it up."), something that might gain him some sympathy points from District government watchdogs. Regardless, simply admitting error isn't enough to save one's job, especially when this much money is at stake. Pompa is damaged goods, and he would do best in stepping aside quickly.

Herbert R. Tillery: The only thing that might save Tillery, a deputy mayor in charge of contracts and procurement, is that he hasn't been on the job that long and he is by far the most blissfully ignorant of all the officials involved. In the Post's original article, Tillery scoffed at the idea that that much money had been spent illegally, childishly assuming that if that were the case, someone would already be in jail for it. When shown the documents by the Post's reporter, the only thing Tillery could do was turn to his staff and ask how such a failure of oversight was possible. An official this unaware should consider a change of career.

Criminal Charges
Honestly, we're not lawyers, so we'll stay quiet on this front for now. We're guessing that if any one official knowingly violated the rules, they could face criminal indictment. That being said, there are still plenty of details to sort out, and we'll leave that to the prosecutors. That being said, we'd love to see MLB Commissioner Bud Selig thrown in jail for a bit. Not that he's done anything wrong, but he's a pretty huge jackass. But that's a topic for another day...

Our betting pool is at best a rough estimate -- no one knows how far the investigations will go, how long they will take, and who they will ensnare. All told, the most obvious political damage will be to Williams. His administration has prided itself on efficiency and responsibility, two traits that the Post's articles have directly challenged. Williams has not helped himself by remaining quiet on the allegations to date.