March 29, 2006
Why Not Mason?
So, in case you hadn't heard, George Mason is in the Final Four. As an 11-seed and member of the Colonial Athletic Assocation, the Patriots are the natural underdogs heading into Indianapolis. But in a tournament full of upsets, with four unlikely combatants -- Mason, UCLA, LSU, and Florida -- left standing, it's absurd to heavily favor one team or heavily discount the chances of another. This Final Four is the toughest to handicap in recent history, but there are several reasons why the Patriots can win the whole shootin' match.
For one, GMU isn't going to face any team tougher than the one they just beat. Connecticut was the most talented team in the country all year, and would've earned the top seed in the tournament if not for a slipup in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament. None of the other semifinalists are nearly as imposing as UConn, or even, for that matter, North Carolina and Michigan St., two other power conference teams Mason knocked off on their way to the Final Four. Florida, LSU, and UCLA have established themselves as top defensive teams, but lack offensive firepower. Well, the Patriots are no slouch defensively, either; they've held their four opponents in this tournament to just over 40 percent shooting from the field.
Moreover, they've played better offensively than any of their counterparts. In LSU's Sweet 16 win over top-seeded Duke, the Tigers shot under 40 percent from the field. UCLA needed a miracle finish to beat Gonzaga in the third round, and in Saturday's quarterfinal against Memphis, went through two eight-minute stretches without a field goal. And Florida -- GMU's opponent in the first national semifinal on Saturday night -- never pulled away from Villanova despite being much bigger than the Wildcats and holding them to 25 percent shooting.
George Mason, however, has endured no such struggles. They've shot 47 percent for the tournament, including hitting 42 percent of their three-pointers. They've shown they can play uptempo (against Connecticut), and they've shown they can play a slower game (against North Carolina). They bounced back from a big deficit early against the Tar Heels, and they stole the momentum back from the Huskies in overtme, after a mojo-stealing, game-tying layup to end regulation. About the only thing they haven't done well is shoot free throws, and somehow, that hasn't hurt them yet.
But while the final two weeks of March are generally filled with upstarts and upsets, the more experienced squad tends to win the day the first weekend in April, when the national champion is crowned. Three-fifths of George Mason's starters -- Lamar Butler, Jai Lewis, and Tony Skinn -- are seniors. Florida doesn't start any seniors; LSU starts one; UCLA two. Talking heads like to take this opportunity to point out by this point in the season, "freshmen aren't freshmen anymore." That's true to an extent, but the pressure and media attention facing these teams is new to all four of them, and George Mason's maturity suggests that they're best-equipped to handle it.
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Um, Connecticut did have a number one seed.
Yes, but Duke was seeded as the top team in the tournament.
Um, Florida led Villanova by double-digits for a good part of Sunday's game. If that isn't "pulling away" then what is?
While it's a nice thought to think Mason has as good a chance as any of the teams left to win, let's really look at their run to this date. Their first game against Michigan State bascially saw a former national champion not show up for the tournament. State played horribly and Mason took advantage. UNC, while extremely talented, are an extremely young team - a team that last almost all its starters from last year's championship team. You can't tell me this Mason team would have any chance against last year's UNC team. The game against Wichita State was the one game where their opponent played well and they still beat them. Well, Mason was the higer seed. They were supposed to win that game. The UCONN game saw GMU dominate the paint. They shot 50% from the field (a great percentage). UCONN has been the team criticized all year for having the most talent but with the least heart. This game defintely showed their lack of heart. As well as Mason played and as dominant a performance they had on Sunday, they still were inches away from LOSING! Had the last shot gone in, we would be talking about how Mason lost a golden opportunity to be in the Final Four.
If Mason were playing any other team than Florida, I would say they have a decent shot. But Florida is the team that is playing best. You say they didn't pull away from Villanova. Hello! They won by 13. Villanova's a number one seed. When you dominate a team in a game, great teams win by double figures, lucky teams escape at the last second.
I want to see GMU win this just as every other American that loves to root for the underdog. I'm sure Mason will have about 90% of public behind them. This run was fabulous, but sadly, it's going to end against the Gators.
C'mon DCist, it's almost been two days and still no mention of Maryland's womens team making the Final Four?
I was at the game on Sunday.
George Mason was amazing to watch.
I'm rooting for them all the way, but I think Flordia is going to be a tough game for them. Real tough.
That being said, the intensity of the crowd on Sunday surely buoyed GM's energy, and with a huge national backing, they might could just pull it off.
Um...since when was Mason "supposed" to beat Wichita State? Were they not a 7 seed?
Wichita had the better seed, but Mason was a one-or one-and-a-half-point favorites.
In response to folks suggesting that I haven't given Florida enough credit, note that their lead on Villanova was just seven points with under four minutes to go (UF was up five at halftime). With their size advantage and with Villanova as cold as they were, the Gators should have pulled away by that point.
Reality has already set in! You don't win 4 games in the tourney due to a fluke or other teams bad play. That kind of thing will get you to the Sweet 16 MAYBE, not the final four. Is FL playing well? Sure every final four team is playing well, that's why they are the 4 left of 300+ that at the beginning of the season could possibly make it there. Mason will not see anything that they have not already faced.
Mason proved that they can come back and hold on in OT(UConn). They proved they can shut down good teams (M St and UNC) Question: Did UNC win some game late last year, oh what was it called? I can't remember? Everyone was calling them "National Somethings" in April. And Mason slammed the Shockers the entire game like a top team should. If Mason plays like they did the past two weekends there is no reason why they shouldn't win it all. You sure your real name isn't Billy Packer "Reality sets in"?
I graduated from GMU, and I am behind them all the way. I think they have a fine chance of winning the next game or two. However, I am concerned that they are tired without a deep bench (look at the minutes their starters put in the second half against UConn).
AND - if they have the attitude they already beat the best so the rest should be easier, then they are done. I think the psychology is a big deal now.
Mason has what I have dubbed "The Greek Charm." For any soccer fans, remember the Euro 2004 Championship? Remember who won it? That's right, Greece did. Who were the favorites? Probably Germany or England or something.
Greece wasn't expected to win even one match, and then they won one, then two, then three, etc etc etc. Sound familiar Mason fans? It should.
How did Greece win all those matches? Stifling defense. How is Mason going to win the national title? Same way. The point here is that just like Greece had the underdogs charm, badass defense and extremely high confidence after making a run through the tournament, so does Mason and I think at this point, their major obstacles are out of the way.
Woohoo! Go GATORS!
Has anyone noticed that on ESPN's sportsnation thing, there is no option for DC? Arrrr that burns me. How am I suppose to know what other citizens of DC think about George Mason's chances or Bonds' HR chase?