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To date, much of the talk of the District mayoral race has been guesses and assumptions. While no one has the numbers to back it, the common wisdom is that Adrian Fenty and Linda Cropp are leading the charge, with third place a toss-up between Vincent Orange and Marie Johns (even though Orange claims the race is between him and Cropp). Today that may change.
The Ward 6 Democrats are hosting a mayoral forum and straw poll today, the latter of which may finally give us a insight into where the candidates stand in terms of popular support. Both events kick off at 7 p.m. at Eastern High School (located at East Capitol Street and 18th Street, SE), though only registered Ward 6 Democrats will be allowed to participate in the poll.
DCist will likely stop in to see how far that candidates and their talking points have come since the last time we braved a mayoral forum. In the meantime, we're offering up our own completely un-scientific poll. If the election were held today, whom would you choose as mayor of D.C.?
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Martin, the straw poll will begin at 7:30 pm, not 7:00 pm as your post indicates.
My God. There are eight people in this town that would vote for Vincent Orange?
So they shut out non-registered democrats even from meaningless straw polls?
Ahh, in DC the only voting that matters is Democratic. This city will only be successfull when a viable two-party system is in place. Right now we elect the same type of people each election cycle and call it "progress."
How exactly are you a Democrat if you're not registered as a Democrat? Then again, how are you even voting if you're not registered?
I'm pretty sure that if the Ward 6 Democratic Party wants to hold a straw poll for the Democratic primary election, they have the right to limit it to registered Ward 6 Democrats...
I agree with SA on this one. Only registered Democrats matter is voting so the Democratic organization should probably only poll them. Besides how many unregistered Democrats are willing to come out for a straw poll anyhow? For that matter, how many registered will make it?
Your poll does not have the Green Party Candidate. There are three official parties in DC.
Yes it does.
Actually, upon second review, the poll does.... But the forum itself, is only open to Democrats.
Green: I think that's because it's a forum of the Democratic candidates for the Democratic primary election hosted by the Democratic party...
Right. Mayhaps the Greens should hold their own event?
When the Southern Republican Leadership Conference had their straw poll a few weeks back, they didn't include Feingold or Clinton. It's a conspiracy!
Democratic party straw poll=Democratic party members.
I personally think that if an effective straw poll is to be taken, it should include Dems registered in ALL wards. Just because I'm Ward 5 means what I think doesn't matter?
I'm probably voting for Fenty. Those 8 people who are voting for Orange are probably his staff.
People, it's the Ward 6 Democrats straw poll. It's not supposed to be a statistically valid predictor of who the next mayor will be. Party organizations do this sort of thing all the time.
JC: Why don't you plan and orchestrate a city wide straw poll then? And who in the world suggested that what you think doesn't matter? That's bit over the top...
But if one Ward Democratic Party is trying to hold a straw poll of its members, then why should non-members be allowed to vote in it? Ward 5 just had a Mayoral Forum this week! Why didn't they hold a straw poll?
"While no one has the numbers to back it, the common wisdom is that Adrian Fenty and Linda Cropp are leading the charge, with third place a toss-up between Vincent Orange and Marie Johns..."
Not exactly. There is, in fact, some scientific data out there. A number of polls have been taken -- internally by the candidates (for Mayor and others) and at least one by a local business group -- and each one confirms that Cropp and Fenty are ahead of the pack, with Fenty probably holding an edge. And you needn't be an insider to gain some knowledge about the polls: The Post and Sherwood have reported on this.
Things might have moved slightly in the last couple of months, but the conventional wisdom is on pretty solid ground here.
http://www.nbc4.com/tomsherwoodsnotebook/6426735/detail.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/01/11/AR2006011100853.html
These forums are good for one thing: They can provide some insight into the organizational capacities of the various campaigns. VERY few average voters go to these...instead, the campaigns (if they even make the effort) pack the room with as many of their known supporters as possible.
Wow, I didn't mean to start a kerfuffle there. I was just poking fun at the fact that the only way to have a voice in this town (even for meaningless votes) is to be registered as a Democrat.
The informed voters in DC usually determine the outcome. Unless you have Marion Barry running, you count on exactly 27 certain precints to help predict the winner. if you win those 27, YOU WILL win the election. Check out the voter turnout in previous elections...
BTW...when you get a chance...listen to Marie Johns. And I become more embarassed and ashamed on Fenty the more I listen to him. I've a feeling his ship has taken on too much water and is sinking...
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