Why Not Mason?
So, in case you hadn't heard, George Mason is in the Final Four. As an 11-seed and member of the Colonial Athletic Assocation, the Patriots are the natural underdogs heading into Indianapolis. But in a tournament full of upsets, with four unlikely combatants -- Mason, UCLA, LSU, and Florida -- left standing, it's absurd to heavily favor one team or heavily discount the chances of another. This Final Four is the toughest to handicap in recent history, but there are several reasons why the Patriots can win the whole shootin' match.
For one, GMU isn't going to face any team tougher than the one they just beat. Connecticut was the most talented team in the country all year, and would've earned the top seed in the tournament if not for a slipup in the quarterfinals of the Big East tournament. None of the other semifinalists are nearly as imposing as UConn, or even, for that matter, North Carolina and Michigan St., two other power conference teams Mason knocked off on their way to the Final Four. Florida, LSU, and UCLA have established themselves as top defensive teams, but lack offensive firepower. Well, the Patriots are no slouch defensively, either; they've held their four opponents in this tournament to just over 40 percent shooting from the field.
Moreover, they've played better offensively than any of their counterparts. In LSU's Sweet 16 win over top-seeded Duke, the Tigers shot under 40 percent from the field. UCLA needed a miracle finish to beat Gonzaga in the third round, and in Saturday's quarterfinal against Memphis, went through two eight-minute stretches without a field goal. And Florida -- GMU's opponent in the first national semifinal on Saturday night -- never pulled away from Villanova despite being much bigger than the Wildcats and holding them to 25 percent shooting.
George Mason, however, has endured no such struggles. They've shot 47 percent for the tournament, including hitting 42 percent of their three-pointers. They've shown they can play uptempo (against Connecticut), and they've shown they can play a slower game (against North Carolina). They bounced back from a big deficit early against the Tar Heels, and they stole the momentum back from the Huskies in overtme, after a mojo-stealing, game-tying layup to end regulation. About the only thing they haven't done well is shoot free throws, and somehow, that hasn't hurt them yet.
But while the final two weeks of March are generally filled with upstarts and upsets, the more experienced squad tends to win the day the first weekend in April, when the national champion is crowned. Three-fifths of George Mason's starters -- Lamar Butler, Jai Lewis, and Tony Skinn -- are seniors. Florida doesn't start any seniors; LSU starts one; UCLA two. Talking heads like to take this opportunity to point out by this point in the season, "freshmen aren't freshmen anymore." That's true to an extent, but the pressure and media attention facing these teams is new to all four of them, and George Mason's maturity suggests that they're best-equipped to handle it.