Back in January, we thought 2006 might be an ugly year for criminal activity in the District. By February, some of the worst trends had moderated, but homicides in the city were still disturbingly high. Three months into the year, it now seems that crime in 2006 will continue its ten year downward trend, and it also appears that the type of criminal activity seen in D.C. is fundamentally shifting.

March was an extraordinarily good month for homicide statistics. The District recorded only 10 last month and is currently 16 percent below last year's homicide rate. Homicides are still up significantly for the year in Police Districts 3 and 6, but most of those crimes took place early in the year.

This year's geographic trends have continued; crime is down on the periphery (in Districts 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7), but up in the two central Districts (1 and 3). Those areas, which stretch from Mount Pleasant southeast through Capitol Hill to the Anacostia River, have seen increases in criminal activity this year of 22 and 13 percent, respectively. In March, a stunningly safe month for most of the city, Third District crime was up 8 percent over last year, and First District crime increased 41 percent over March of 2005.

But across the city, the pattern of crimes experienced is changing. The most serious violent crimes -- homicide, sexual assault, and assault with a deadly weapon -- have decreased almost everywhere in the city. Citywide, homicides are down 7 percent this year, deadly weapon assaults are down 8 percent, and sexual assaults are down 17 percent. Property crimes, however, are increasing slightly across the city and are shooting up in the First and Third Districts -- transitional neighborhoods where new development is most intense. Robbery, burglary, theft, and auto theft were all up appreciably in those neighborhoods, and robbery has increased citywide by 6 percent this year.

But it does seem that Washington, as a whole, is becoming more safe. Hopefully this trend will continue through the summer months, when criminal activity tends to tick upward.