Purple America
The Census Bureau today released a report on domestic migration in the United States, or movement within and between the states, but not internationally (the District of Columbia is included). In the AP story on the report, the opening sentence reads, "Americans are leaving the nation’s big cities in search of cheaper homes and open spaces farther out." It seems to us that the AP had this headline in mind before they ever saw the Census report.
It is true that many central cities, particularly in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic, are losing domestic migrants, but -- looking at the graphics Census provides -- it becomes overwhelmingly clear that movement is generally toward cities, even if the outlying suburbs gain most in these shifts. Rural America is, for the most part, emptying out.
The study compares two periods, 1990 to 1999 and 2000 to 2004, and the Washington area's experience is about what you'd expect. The District lost domestic migrants over the past five years but at a slower rate than in the '90s (ditto for Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George's, and Arlington counties and Alexandria), while all the suburban counties surrounding that central area have gained domestic migrants steadily since 1990. Virginia has gained domestic population in both periods, while Maryland shifted from a loser of migrants in the first period to a gainer in the second. The region in which Census places our area, the Southern Atlantic, is gaining domestic population faster than anywhere else in the U.S. other than the Mountain West. Predictably, Loudoun, Stafford, and Spotsylvania Counties are among the 25 largest gainers of domestic population over the past five years.
Most analysis of such suburban growth emphasizes the cost and availability of housing as a driving force behind migration, although the AP does go to George Mason's urban guru Richard Florida for a statement on the changing demographics of central cities, where he says families are getting smaller and richer. Unmentioned in the AP article is the obvious fact that most of the growing exurbs are tied economically to large metropolitan areas, which are the driving forces behind regional job creation. Similarly ignored are growing urban issues relating to traffic and gas prices.
DCist has addressed this issue before, and we continue to believe any analysis of changing cityscapes is incomplete without mentioning the rising cost of exurb living. As many in the Washington area can tell you, it does not take long for urban difficulties to arrive in exurban locales, and if gas prices continue to stay aloft, it seems likely that the pain of commuting will change the pressures affecting domestic migrants.