June 7, 2006
Alfonso Soriano: An Inconvenient Truth
The following is the first in a two part point/counterpart series by DCist Sports regarding Alfsonso Soriano and his future with the Washington Nationals. Today Matthew Bourque argues for trading him. Jeff Beam will provide the case for keeping Soriano tomorrow.
When Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals landed on the 15-day disabled list with a strained oblique muscle, baseball lost its most prolific hitter. On Monday, an inconclusive MRI had experts believing that Pujols would be out for much longer than his initial stint on the DL. How does this affect us Washington folk? Our very own Alfonso Soriano looks to step into Pujols' void as baseball's hottest hitter. Unfortunately, this is exactly why we must trade him.
Soriano's 22 home runs are second only to Pujols' 25. Alfonso is on pace for career highs in home runs, RBIs, runs scored, batting average, slugging and on-base percentage. Under the mentorship of manager Frank Robinson, Soriano has left early season controversies in his wake through his play on the field and his attitude off of it. He has fulfilled all of his expectations and refuted his doubters. His trade value has never been higher.
Photo taken by Flickr user Scott Ableman, click here for the original
We must consider the possibility that this is the best we will see from Soriano; quite possibly, this is the highest his trade value will ever be. Soriano is at least 30 years old. History has portentously shown that baseball players suffer an inevitable decline upon reaching their 30th birthday. Though it is possible that Soriano will maintain his torrid rate of production throughout this season, we cannot expect him to replicate this season's output in the years to come.
Of course, it is superfluous to speculate Soriano's future production when his days with the Nats are likely numbered. His one-year, $10 million deal will expire this October. He will become a free agent, spurring a bidding war for his services. Well-monied franchises such as the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and Dodgers will be able flex their financial muscles and outbid a team like the Nationals. This would leave us with but a lone draft pick to compensate the loss of Soriano. The other option would be to overpay for Soriano and sign him to a long-term, burdensome contract. Johnny Damon, at age 32, signed for $52 million over 4 years. Presumably, Soriano would command at least that much in salary.
Such an onerous contract would impede the Nationals' performance for years to come. Sure, they would fill some seats as Soriano is admittedly a fan favorite. This is not the way to run a successful franchise. Mediocre teams perpetuate their plight when they take this route. Doling out big contracts to fan favorites Mike Sweeney and Todd Helton has yielded inauspicious returns for the Royals and Rockies. For counter-examples, one need only look to the Indians and Marlins as teams that have successfully rebuilt in recent years.
We have to realistically assess the Nats' current chances for a championship, the ultimate goal of any team. The Nationals have enjoyed some recent success, but let's face it: as endearing as our gritty Nats are, the World Series is out of reach, let alone the playoffs. We have two guys named Marlon that exemplify one of the weakest lineups in baseball. We have a pitcher that hits better than most of the team. The pitching staff is rife with injuries, inexperience and reclamation projects. Signing high school prospects with our first five picks, we cannot expect yesterday's amateur draft to yield immediate returns. A couple of high profile free agent signings are not going to solve our problems.
Our best option lies in restocking the farm system and loading up on prospects. Contending teams like the Yankees and Mets are not averse to trading away their young talent for a piece that could put them over the top. Soriano would be the most appetizing piece of trade bait on the market for these two teams, as he would be able to fill gaping holes in the Yankees' outfield and at second base for the Mets. Playing these teams off of each other will drive up the price of Soriano, enabling us to get maximum value, perhaps even a future franchise player.
Dark days will follow during the interim period following Soriano's departure. Sure, the team will struggle through a few years, attendance will drop, and our Nats will draw the derision of casual fans. However, true fans will understand the necessity of this period and journey to RFK to see Ryan Zimmerman, Chad Cordero, and the other bright young stars we will receive in this season's inevitable fire sale. In 2008, the casual fans will return when the new ballpark opens on the Anacostia river. They will come for the sights, sounds, and fanfare. To their surprise, they will be be greeted by an exciting, competitive, world-class product on the field.





Given that he's a free agent at the end of the season, Soriano is basically gone. Perhaps the more interesting question is that of the other expensive players who are still going to be under contract - i.e. Vidro, Livo, Johnson, Guillen, Schneider, etc...pretty much everyone except Zimmerman.
Trade Soriano, but you won't find a team willing to mortgage the farm for four months of a player with a record of postseason failure.
The Mets have Lastings Milledge, and they would rather play him than trade him for Soriano.
The Yanks are set for now with Melky Cabrera and they aren't too keen on shipping out prospects.
It doesn't make sense for the OBP-minded Sox to acquire Soriano.
So maybe the Dodgers want him or the Cardinals. But I think we should face reality. It might be appealing to trade Soriano, but it takes two to tango.
Snap on analysis- I only hope that Ted Lerner's front office has as much foresight
Snap on analysis- I only hope that Ted Lerner's front office has as much foresight
Spot on analysis- I only hope that Ted Lerner's front office has as much foresight
"We didn't know it when we got him, but Soriano is the hardest worker on our team," Bowden said. "He's a young 30. He has another decade left in him. In left field, he's working hard. He'll be adequate by the end of this year."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/21/AR2006052101389.html
He is, as Bowden said, a "young 30," and he could easily command a contract in the range of five years and $65 million.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/01/AR2006060101727.html
That could be a little bit of hot air out of Bowden to repair some bridges, but look at his numbers!
Will he be traded, probably. He is pricey, a lot and the Leners and Kasten want to build a franchise for the years to come (in his 14 yrs with the Braves, they were #1 in the east every year).
However if they want some late summer excitement (if Soriano stays healthy there is no reason why he should not lead baseball in HRs) they will hold on to him. The O's weren't making the playoffs for years but everyone came to see Cal, as were the Cubs with Sosa. Soriano is no Cal or Sosa but people like big names and the long ball, Soriano could prove to be a revenue driver.
I would say offer Soriano $14 mil a yr for 4 years on or before July 10, no deal, trade immediately.
People must also remember playing in October is not like the payoffs in the NBA or NHL, for both those leagues 16 teams make it, for baseball it is only 8. Every year the Nats will have to probably beat out the Mets and Braves which is no easy task!
You know who we should trade? The Chief. Relievers are overrated. If we could get a couple of promising prospects it would be a terrific move.
b,
Cordero was getting paid the league minimum last year, he is dirt cheap and 24, a trade would be a HORRIBLE move! He lead the league in saves last year, a little rocky this year, but we know he is good. Prospects have the potential to be good, we already know Chad is good. Sending some one in who seals the deal almost every game is not over rated.
Hey Sparky,
You make some good points – especially by pointing out his salary, which isn’t something that I considered. But did you read "Moneyball" about Billy Bean, the A's G.M.? One of the more interesting things Bean discovered when he started crunching all the numbers on baseball is that saves is the most overrated stat in baseball. As a result, closers are way over valued by most GMs. So I still think that if we can get some good prospects for Chad Cordero then we should trade him. We can find another reliever and frankly he’s been pretty shaky this year.
-B
PS Are you a Tigers fan? Is that why you go by Sparky? If so, congrats on your team this year. They look terrific. And you got a nice ballpark up there too.
Hey Sparky,
You make some good points – especially by pointing out his salary, which isn’t something that I considered. But did you read "Moneyball" about Billy Bean, the A's G.M.? One of the more interesting things Bean discovered when he started crunching all the numbers on baseball is that saves is the most overrated stat in baseball. As a result, closers are way over valued by most GMs. So I still think that if we can get some good prospects for Chad Cordero then we should trade him. We can find another reliever and frankly he’s been pretty shaky this year.
-B
PS Are you a Tigers fan? Is that why you go by Sparky? If so, congrats on your team this year. They look terrific. And you got a nice ballpark up there too.
No not really a tigers fan but nice to see a team like them win.
Save number 11 tonight, 2.93 era, in late may/june he has looked great and at 525K this year he is worth it, you will pay anyone just as much and you need a good closer and it can't come cheaper than 525. The Nats have enough other players that are older and who can pull in prospects.
Sparky jr fav teams in order
1. Nats
2. Brew Crew
3. O's
All cities I have live in, yeah I know I will never watch my team win a Series but that's okay gives me more to get angry about and I can all ways blame Steinbrenner (tell your children he hates Santa and hanukkah Harry, causes it's true.)
I think the biggest indicator of our incredibly weak line-up is a) Royce Clayton starts for us, b) he bats 2nd ... any team that has Royce starting for them knows they're in trouble (his last 3 teams, in consecutive years, were the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Brewers ... ugh) ... he's the ultimate "just good enough to stick around for a while" player
i should comment on here more often, suddenly Soriano looks like a true lead-off hitter and Royce looks like Jeter ... hellofa game tonight