June 8, 2006
Alfonso Soriano: The Last Stand
The following is the second in a two part point/counterpart series by DCist Sports regarding Alfsonso Soriano and his future with the Washington Nationals. Today Jeff Beam provides the case for keeping Soriano. Yesterday, Matt Bourque made the case for trading him.
First off, lets not deny the obvious: sometime between now and the July trade deadline, the Nats are going to have a serious fire sale. Every player not named Zimmerman, Patterson, and Cordero will be on the block, and one would guess that trigger-happy Jim Bowden would even listen to offers for those guys. The Lerner/Kasten team is intent on building this team the right way, and from the ground up. Veteran talent will make way for prospects at every level. And as noted yesterday, this week's draft did not generate a lot of big league-ready talent. Since the new owners have been very public with this strategy and the Nats don't figure to contend this year, radio shows and MLB chat rooms are already abuzz with who they might pry away, and the red-hot Soriano is first among them.
With Albert Pujols out indefinitely, Alfonso is now on the MVP short list. He's a true five-tool player, can play multiple positions, and is well-regarded by his teammates. With a high market value and a contract set to expire at the end of this year, conventional baseball wisdom tells the Nats to get while the gettin' is good with a contender's prospects. However, a baseball man with Kasten's success might see that keeping Soriano might be the smart move after all.
AP photo by Lawrence Jackson
The 2nd baseman-turned-outfielder has gone from a rocky start to clubhouse model. He's acknowledged as one of the hardest working Nats, and is liked by his teammates. He has a combination of speed and power that scouts drool over, and has game-changing ability that alters the opposing pitcher's approach to half the lineup around him. He turns singles into triples with steals, and turns fastballs into souvenirs for the cheap seats. In short, the Nats may scout, draft, coach, and pray that one of their prospects turns out something like Soriano. Even while pressing to trade him, the Post's Tom Boswell wonders, "how many years will it take us to get another one like him?"
And I don't buy the "declining production after 30" reasoning. Today's players are so much better conditioned and protected from injury that they render those statistical trends meaningless - especially athletic specimens like Soriano. Bowden describes his age as a "young 30", and sees no reason that he won't produce for another 10 years.
Alfonso's name is so prevalent in the rumor mill only partially because of his value. Even more, it is because of the desperate outfield situation on a certain free-spending annual contender, and because of his perceived availability. The Yankees, however, lack the prospects that Kasten and co. will demand for Soriano.
The rest of the contenders may not be interested in selling the farm for Soriano, either. When the market heats up, it will focus most intensely on quality pitching, as it does every year. A playoff caliber team cannot possibly get enough pitching depth as the season turns to the dog days of August. In this unbalanced market, a battle-tested veteran like Livan Hernandez, or a hot arm like Tony Armas might generate the same amount of interest as a great bat. Teams with solid clubhouse chemistry might not look to shake up the lineup with Soriano, and may instead bolster their bench with proven veterans who would embrace a reserve role, like Marlon Anderson and Daryle Ward (who both made clutch hits in last night's series-clincher in Atlanta).
Almost everyone else - minus the aforementioned three cornerstones - is expendable, despite the fond feelings the club and the fans have for them. Jose Vidro could supply a .320 hitter and veteran leadership for Omar Minyana's Mets. Jose Guillen could be a monster hitter again in a fly-ball hitter's park like Philly or Cincinnati. Gary Majewski or Jon Rauch could be lifesavers for a contender's overworked bullpen.
The Nats should explore every possible deal that will build a winner in the long-term, and they absolutely cannot let the trade deadline pass without having traded or re-signed Soriano. But unless he expresses a desire to play elsewhere or someone offers the moon, the Nats should seriously consider a future built around their present star.

Soriano is a five-tool player? Are you high? He is the worst defensive outfielder in the game. He has range, but he can't judge a flyball. And his infield defense was atorcious too. His arm strngth is merely so-so.
And hitting for average? That's so over. It's all about on-base percentage, my friend. And Soriano can't take pitches to save his life. Statistical analysis shows that players who don't decline after the age of 32 are those who can take walks. Garret Anderson of the Angles is a prime example of this. Soriano, who may be older than 30 anyways, is looking at a steep decline in the near future.
Trade him. After treating him like cattle in the offseason he aint gonna re-sign anyways. Get something in return. Too bad 'cos we all know American League pitchers are much better than National League pitchers and the guy has shown that he can hit in the AL and the NL.
As for his fielding, meh, any team can live with that if he keeps on hitting 40+ HR and 100+ RBIs per season.
I think calling him the worst defensive outfielder in baseball is unfair. He's had to adjust to a brand new position on the fly (no pun intended). Sure he's missed a few fly balls (Baseball Tonight showed a few of them last night) but he's also made some good plays out there.
He's winning more games with his bat than he is losing them with his fielding.
Calling him the worst defensive outfielder in baseball is unfair? That's not unfair. It's truth!
Yes, Soriano is winning more games with his bat than losing games in the field. But I'm not the noe who called him a five tool player. Soriano has two tools, speed and power.
Rusty,
The guy leads the MLB in outfield assists (with 10, closest players have 6). He has an above average arm, and superior range. He's learning a new position that he started in the last week of spring training for the first time in his life. Sure, he was a below-average second baseman, but to call him the worst defensive outfielder in the game?
Yeah, I'm the one who's high...
Regardless of whether he's had to adjust, he's poor out there. Sure, give him some credit for trotting out there, but it doesn't change the fact that he's hurt the team with his defense. The only thing saving him is that his bumbling has led the opposing team to run into some stupid outs when trying to take an extra base on his misplays.
There's zero chance that Soriano's going to resign before the deadline. He wants money. So the choice is to trade him for prospects (and there should be a bunch of teams interested, really), or let him walk at the end of the season, when the team would get two first-round draft picks for letting him leave.
He's a fun player to have, and resigning him in the offseason certainly isn't going to be blocking any elite prospects from playing, but he's likely to be paid more than he's really worth.... as are most free agents.
You can't seriously be giving him credit for the assists? Sure, he's made the plays, but it's not because he has a strong, accurate arm! His arm is pretty weak, and his throwing motion makes his throws tail away. Almost all of his assists (maybe even higher) have been helped by the cutoff man. It's not like he's Jose Guillen from last year, throwing a laser to nail a runner at the plate.
I ain't sayin he's the best. I'm just saying he's certainly not the worst, and has the athleticism to get a lot better if he's willing to stay out there.
Rusty,
Sure his OBP rank is low at about 45th in the NL but he is 5th in slugging. His fielding skills at the beginning of the season were weak but they have been getting better. Plus he will have 30 HR by the end of June, a lot of MLB clubs might not even have one guy with 30 HR come the end of September! He is going to have to work on his fielding skills or he can forget about most other NL clubs. He is changing and not messing around anymore. Frank tossed him mid game earlier this year for not running out a fly ball. I haven't seen him pull any stunts since. He is no TO. If he wants big money, which he does, he will keep his head in the game.
I would love to see him stay but at the same time unless they can lock down a good deal (under $15 mil and no longer than 5 years) I would vote to trade him.
Soriano's SLG% is abnormally high. This is why you can't use three months of baseball to judge him as a hitter. Three months is a small sample size for a 30+ yr old player. He has a career SLG% of .509. He is way overdue for a slump.
Signing this guy to a long-term contract would be disasterous. Either trade him or let him go and pocket the draft picks.
As for fielding, Manny Rameriez led the AL last year in OF assists. But NO ONE is saying Manny is anything better than a D- in the field.
but like Manny, this guy can hit and its not like the Nats are chock-full of offensive fire power. hell, if not for Soriano's bat, the Nats would probably be like 20-40 and not 27-33.
and the guy has been hitting with the Yankees, the Rangers and now the "unhittable" RFK. trade him now and get something in return from contending teams - especially pitchers.
oh yeah, one more thing, at least he's been a good sport so far and got over the fact that they forced him to move to OF. guy could've been a real diva and turned into a royal pain in the as* the entire season, but instead he's having a way more productive year than any of us could've thought during spring training.
anyone who knows anything about baseball knows that traditional fielding stats like fielding percentage and assists are just horrible ways to gauge a player's fielding abilities ... that said, soriano is far from the worst defensive outfielder in the game, his natural speed and ball-hawking instincts puts him ahead of a lot of players
Agreed, PD. Soriano is not even the worst fielding outfielder on the Nats. That honor has to go to Daryle Ward. At least when Soriano misplays a ball, he is giving his full effort. I have seen Ward glance up and admire catchable balls that go on to hit the base of the wall.
In terms of fielding metrics, Soriano is one of the worst starting OFers in baseball. Despite his good speed, he only has adequate range because he doesn't have any instinct for the outfield. He doesn't get to balls that much slower OFers (Trot Nixon, Hideki Matsui) get to.
Comparing Manny and Soriano is silly too. Manny can work a count. Even when he's slumping, her gets on base. Manny is known for his consistency. Soriano is playing the best ball of his life now, but it's temporary. He'll come back to Earth.
Trade him ASAP.
Trade him. And while you're at it: trade everybody.
Ok guys, take a deep breath and put down your hardback version of Moneyball. Yes, Alfonso might not take enough pitches for your statistical liking, but he's arguably the #1 offensive force in baseball right now (with Pujols on the shelf). The fact that he's a clubhouse leader and one of the harder working players on the team is gravy. He's the kind of cornerstone player that you build your franchise around.
That said, I still say trade him to the highest bidder.