Alfonso Soriano: An Inconvenient Truth
The following is the first in a two part point/counterpart series by DCist Sports regarding Alfsonso Soriano and his future with the Washington Nationals. Today Matthew Bourque argues for trading him. Jeff Beam will provide the case for keeping Soriano tomorrow.
When Albert Pujols of the St. Louis Cardinals landed on the 15-day disabled list with a strained oblique muscle, baseball lost its most prolific hitter. On Monday, an inconclusive MRI had experts believing that Pujols would be out for much longer than his initial stint on the DL. How does this affect us Washington folk? Our very own Alfonso Soriano looks to step into Pujols' void as baseball's hottest hitter. Unfortunately, this is exactly why we must trade him.
Soriano's 22 home runs are second only to Pujols' 25. Alfonso is on pace for career highs in home runs, RBIs, runs scored, batting average, slugging and on-base percentage. Under the mentorship of manager Frank Robinson, Soriano has left early season controversies in his wake through his play on the field and his attitude off of it. He has fulfilled all of his expectations and refuted his doubters. His trade value has never been higher.
Photo taken by Flickr user Scott Ableman, click here for the original
We must consider the possibility that this is the best we will see from Soriano; quite possibly, this is the highest his trade value will ever be. Soriano is at least 30 years old. History has portentously shown that baseball players suffer an inevitable decline upon reaching their 30th birthday. Though it is possible that Soriano will maintain his torrid rate of production throughout this season, we cannot expect him to replicate this season's output in the years to come.
Of course, it is superfluous to speculate Soriano's future production when his days with the Nats are likely numbered. His one-year, $10 million deal will expire this October. He will become a free agent, spurring a bidding war for his services. Well-monied franchises such as the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and Dodgers will be able flex their financial muscles and outbid a team like the Nationals. This would leave us with but a lone draft pick to compensate the loss of Soriano. The other option would be to overpay for Soriano and sign him to a long-term, burdensome contract. Johnny Damon, at age 32, signed for $52 million over 4 years. Presumably, Soriano would command at least that much in salary.
Such an onerous contract would impede the Nationals' performance for years to come. Sure, they would fill some seats as Soriano is admittedly a fan favorite. This is not the way to run a successful franchise. Mediocre teams perpetuate their plight when they take this route. Doling out big contracts to fan favorites Mike Sweeney and Todd Helton has yielded inauspicious returns for the Royals and Rockies. For counter-examples, one need only look to the Indians and Marlins as teams that have successfully rebuilt in recent years.
We have to realistically assess the Nats' current chances for a championship, the ultimate goal of any team. The Nationals have enjoyed some recent success, but let's face it: as endearing as our gritty Nats are, the World Series is out of reach, let alone the playoffs. We have two guys named Marlon that exemplify one of the weakest lineups in baseball. We have a pitcher that hits better than most of the team. The pitching staff is rife with injuries, inexperience and reclamation projects. Signing high school prospects with our first five picks, we cannot expect yesterday's amateur draft to yield immediate returns. A couple of high profile free agent signings are not going to solve our problems.
Our best option lies in restocking the farm system and loading up on prospects. Contending teams like the Yankees and Mets are not averse to trading away their young talent for a piece that could put them over the top. Soriano would be the most appetizing piece of trade bait on the market for these two teams, as he would be able to fill gaping holes in the Yankees' outfield and at second base for the Mets. Playing these teams off of each other will drive up the price of Soriano, enabling us to get maximum value, perhaps even a future franchise player.
Dark days will follow during the interim period following Soriano's departure. Sure, the team will struggle through a few years, attendance will drop, and our Nats will draw the derision of casual fans. However, true fans will understand the necessity of this period and journey to RFK to see Ryan Zimmerman, Chad Cordero, and the other bright young stars we will receive in this season's inevitable fire sale. In 2008, the casual fans will return when the new ballpark opens on the Anacostia river. They will come for the sights, sounds, and fanfare. To their surprise, they will be be greeted by an exciting, competitive, world-class product on the field.