July 30, 2006
Opinionist: A Case for More Police
Reader Matthew Yglesias responds to a recent piece we posted on crime in the city. Want to add your own voice to this debate? Email Opinionist. 
Should the District respond to its high crime rates and current purported "crime emergency" by hiring more cops as several City Council members are proposing? Calm heads like DCist's Martin Austermuhle say no and they have the numbers to prove it. He points out that DC has traditionally had a large police department -- 742 officers per 100,000 residents in 1990, 631 per 100,000 residents in 2000, and that "if the police force were to grow to 5,000 officers, that proportion would increase to over 800 police officers per 100,000 residents, a shockingly high number."
And, indeed, that would be a lot of cops. Low-crime New York City gets by with about 37,000 officers for the Big Apple's 8 million residents -- about 462 per 100,000 residents. On the other hand, per capita figures may not be the best way to think about the situation. New York's 8 million people are packed into 321 square miles, giving it about 115 cops per square mile. The District is much less dense, giving us a much thinner police presence despite the higher cop-per-resident ratio -- even if we boosted the DCPD to 5,000 officers from the current 3,800 we'd only have 73 or so per square mile.
It's not clear, at any rate, how much light inter-city comparisons can shed. Adding cops reduces crime, but higher crime rates spur citizens to demand more police so the deterrent effect of large police departments doesn't show up. What's more, the MPD isn't comparable to most other big city forces since much of its manpower is necessarily expended on federal security rather than conventional police work.
Fortunately, some very good evidence is on hand.
Jonathan Klick and Alex Tabarrok, economists at Florida State University and George Mason University respectively, took advantage of the much-mocked color coded terrorism alert system to shed some light on this important question. They examined daily crime rates in the District of Columbia between March 12, 2002 and July 30, 2003 a period during which the terror alert system oscillated between yellow and orange, noting that during the orange days police presence was about 50 percent higher than during the yellow ones. The result -- a 6.6 decrease in citywide crime during high-police alert periods. Supporting the theory that this decline was attributable to the enhanced police presence, they found that the bulk of the reduction in crime came from Police District 1 -- a 15 percent drop locally -- where national monuments (and, therefore, terror-related manpower increases) are concentrated.
They conclude on the basis of this research that a 10 percent increase in police force size should produce an approximate 3 percent drop in the number of crimes, a result consistent with other economists' analyses. Turning the DCPD into a 5,000-strong squad should, in other words, bring about a 9.5 percent reduction in crime. Based on 2005 crime statistics that would mean over 18 fewer murders, 330 fewer robberies, 360 fewer assaults, and 700 fewer stolen cars -- that's nothing to sneer at.
Matthew Yglesias is staff writer at The American Prospect and Associate Editor of TPM Cafe.
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When I lived in NY during the Giuliani reign, more police walked the beat, which was attributed to a drop in crime in some areas. I felt safer, too. Here, though I've seen cops ride bikes or nerd mobiles in Georgetown, I've yet to see them far from their cruisers in Columbia Heights, U Street, etc. Has anyone seen them walking around without their cars nearby? While they're working, that is?
yeah, i'd like to see more cops walking the beat. maybe one of them would have noticed my front door busted in on friday and caught the creeps ripping off all of my roommates (and my) stuff. anyone have a laptop they want to donate? this going to work to check my email is gonna suck.
That's a lot of cops (and a lot of money) for 9%.
What about other crime prevention measures: police reallocation (as in beat walking, as mentioned above) is usually considered a more cost efficient way of lowering crime. How about other crime prevention programs: job training, literacy programs, half way homes? How do they compare in a per dollar?
I was a bit thrilled when I saw Matthew Yglesias had written a piece for publication on DCist. Then I was disappointed. While I appreciate some stats to back up his conclusion that more police = less crime, I can't hep but think his reasoning skills would have been better applied to a less obvious premise.
This also reminds me of the solution given by politicians for poorly performing public schools to hire more teachers. What's done to attract locals and out of town recruits? What's done to reward the most competent staff? Are rookies mentored? Is there continuing professional development away from their regular work environment as there is in just about every other profession? What's the correlation between expense of hiring more officers and the result? And have things been done in other cities that are more cost effective? Rather than look to economists, it would seem smart to look to cities like NY that have set examples. And, while DC has it's own issues-- police reallocated to motorcades, parades, and other non hazardous duties(which happens plenty in NY, too)-- dumping money into the most expensive solution seems like it would be a city's last resort.
One thing that was not mentioned was NYPD's move to enforce "quality of life" laws. Enforcing quality of life laws like the crackdown of panhandlers, vagrants, squeegee men; the enforcement of jaywalking laws; etc. showed NYC residents that Guiliani was serious about reducing crime and that the laws will be enforced. The enforcement of quality of life laws should be a priority of District police. There is a lot that could be done to change quality of life laws...I would certaintly feel safer not having to walk past the bunch of milk crate men on the corner by my apartment every night.
NYC also reallocated precinct police based on statistical crime increases within the precinct, in other words, having more cops walking the beat in an area that is experiencing a uptick in crime. Does the District have a similar plan in place?
If NYC's policing model worked for the largest city in the country, that has similar underlying factors influencing crime, why can't it work here?
These are long-term things, but had they been done years ago we mightn't be in the very sad situation we are today. We do need to look into CFSA. We need to look ensure the availability of youth rec programs, and not expect kids under 18 to walk or ride bikes 10-15 blocks in dangerous neighborhoods to a late-night rec center. We obviously need to do better with edu. Carrot and stick, right?
My heart bleeds as much as the next(really), but I sense there's also a lot practicality to doing these things.
Short term? Unless the city (brass, unions, pols) somehow contrives to use our existing resources more efficiently (DC, efficient?), brute numbers seems the remaining inelegant solution.
Only thing about walking some beats... if there is an emergency OUTSIDE their immediate area, the response time will be SLOW-- thus there would be complaints about a slow response time.
Cops can walk in conjested areas. Bike cops on U Street (they're there)...I was surprised to see mounted DC police on a few occassions last month too. DC is more residential than NYC...we can't compare the two.
I'm like FENTY-- no answers for the problems..just restating the obvious... (whoa, did I just compare myself to FENTY? I need a drink- and a book).
Wow, I'm impressed-- a Opinionist post that is worth reading. Excellent points. Excellent inclusion DCist.
DC1974, I don't disagree that the same-- or maybe better-- results might be obtainable with other measures ("job training, literacy programs, half way homes"); however, DC has proved that its inept city council, city employees and (past) mayors have not been able to get much done. I hate that might cost more to hire more officers than get the schools running well, job programs up and running, etc.
But when it really gets down to it I'd rather see some law and order on the streets. At least until the politicians get off their fat-cat, euphemistic, pandering asses and actually make a change for the better, much less one that requires a large investment for returns to be observed in the future.
Regarding more cops: Might it be more effective to bring in a collection of big name ass kickers who have demonstrated efficacy in LAPD or NYPD in restructuring law enforcement operations rather than hire a bunch more cops?
And, if people in residential areas are saying they're getting robbed and mugged--imgoph is one and I'm sure we know others--what's wrong with foot patrols in residential areas where it's needed? It's not like walking I495. And it may actually work.
Last, particularly in regard to the GMU/Florida State code orange example cited by Matthew Yglesias: anyone with a pulse knew that a heightened alert meant more cops would be stationed in high profile areas. Might that in itself deter crime? Like Cinco de Mayo or Halloween or any partying holiday on which crime might increase, would a potential criminal head to the heavily populated and policed 18th street or rather to the residential areas that are less protected? In the same vein, why commit a crime on a day when it's known there are more cops about?
The study would have been more convincing if the economists had used examples of beefed up security days that were more under the radar, as opposed to the coded days when every tv, newspaper, and radio station broadcasted heightened alerts.
And, thank you for writing an opinionist that will continue an interesting discussion; if only it would lead to some actions and results in reducing crime in DC, particularly during the summer.
Good piece but it begs the question.
If adding 10% more police officers results in a 3% drop in crime, it's as important to ask if there is something else you can do with $128 million to achieve greater results in terms of public safety improvements? (This number is based on 1600 officers x $80,000/year -- this is a very raw estimate including wages, benefits, training, and materials support.)
I am a progressive who is an afficionado of _The Future Once Happened Here_ and writings in _City Journal_, "Broken Windows" and the like.
I think the multi-pronged approach of the UK's Respect Action Agenda would likely have more impact. It'll take longer, but the thing isn't to reduce murder and robbery rates and the like just by better enforcement and interdiction, it's to reduce the likelihood of the problem to begin with. The Respect Action Plan has six main strands:
- Supporting families
- A new approach to the most challenging families
- Improving behaviour and attendance in schools
- Activities for children and young people
- Strengthening communities
- Effective enforcement and community justice
And I am all for putting point 6: Effective enforcement and community justice; first.
Philadelphia is undergoing a real crime emergency, but it hasn't made the national press in the same way that DC's by comparison relatively minor problems have.
Sunday's Inquirer has a two-full page piece on interviews with 7 people incarcerated for crimes, including murder, committed while they were juveniles. I'd suggest anyone reading this thread, including M. Ylegsias, read it.
It's called Snared by the Street and you might have to register for access. I have written about this issue a lot and for a long time. Anyone truly interested ought to read Elijah Anderson's _Code of the Street_ to begin to understand the deeper issues and problems.
Wow. I have no doubt that DC hasn't done the best job of running things in the past (or currently) so this is the reason to have a police state? I noticed the other day on the cover of the Afro American that funding for UDC has been lowered again and that classes will be cut. Does that make sense to you? Does it make sense that we have no viable post-secondary job training in this city that is affordable to residents? I looked recently at taking a community college class in NoVa (because nothing was offered like it at UDC) it would have cost me a $1000 for 4 credits. Do you know that would have cost in Oakland, CA? About $70. Maybe less. And not only would I have had traditional liberal arts education offerings, but I could have taken classes in an auto body shop or majored in building trades work. The fact that DC doesn't have this kind of education post secondary is an a huge inditement of our spending priorities.
Governments are not always going to be run efficiently, heck our police force isn't run efficiently, but it's a cop out (no pun intended) to flood the zone with a bunch of peace officers. Do you really feel that unsafe in the district? Really? Because I live off Georgia Avenue and regularly walk all over the city in the upper northeast and northwest and I just don't see it. I don't feel any more or less safe than I did in San Francisco, Chicago, Oakland or New York. Yeah. Violence is a problem, but I'm not sure that spending a whole lot of money to assuage the overblown fears of a bunch of upper class twits that would actually rather be living in Great Falls to be an effective use of my tax dollars.
What a load of hooie. One study shows a correlation between number of police officers and a decrease in crime and we think it's hard science. Let's treat that study for what it is, example of a correlation. Correlation does not imply causality.
I think we should take the money for the salaries of the new cops and instead spend it on youth programs to keep our city's kids active, engaged, learning, and hopeful. City-wide creative contests? Sports nights? Let's keep our children engaged and interested in stuff so that they aren't out there trying to mug people. Instead of making all of our youth potential criminals (curfew violators!) we should encourage them and assist them with activities that will benefit the whole city.
Good Point Recyclist. We do need:
"youth programs to keep our city's kids active, engaged, learning, and hopeful. City-wide creative contests? Sports nights? Let's keep our children engaged and interested in stuff so that they aren't out there trying to mug people. Instead of making all of our youth potential criminals (curfew violators!) we should encourage them and assist them with activities that will benefit the whole city."
And many of those things were in the crime legislation Adrian Fenty voted against, including:
$2.5 million for the Department of Employment Services for a 33-week, intensive job training program for at-risk citizens, including in-school youth, the homeless, and those battling substance abuse.
$380,000 for an additional 100 youth for an effective Partnership for Success program
$200,000 for targeted gang/crew mediation in targeted neighborhoods
$70,000 to expand recreation and street outreach in targeted neighborhoods
$50,000 for the Gang Intervention Partnership with the police
$200,000 for adult reintry programs including housing and job assistance
$1.2 million to fund recreation programs
How about instead of pointing to one study here and another study there, we listen to the cops and their union(s). They are mostly complaining about the fact that it is easy for complaints against them to be turned into disciplinary action. True, cops need to be held accountable, but when they are afraid of an easy to achieve reprimand to show up on their record for something trivial, they will have problems performing. DOJ also is a factor no one has looked at. DOJ and the DA's office hamstring the MPD much when it comes to 1) the elgigibility of the department to get certified by the feds and 2) the way the US Atty prosecutes local crimes. Maybe DCist (and its guests) should look into these factors too... There is a good deal to unpack here.
Check out this google map mashup I built over the weekend. The site maps and shows statistics for DC crimes (currently about 8,000 listed)
www.crimeindc.org
Suggestions for improvement are welcomed.
Check out this google map mashup I built over the weekend. The site maps and shows statistics for DC crimes (currently about 8,000 listed)
www.crimeindc.org
Suggestions for improvement are welcomed.
Dupont:
You're promoting a package of poo, just 'cause it’s tied with a pretty ribbon. You can see that, can't you? And, guess what, most of those (modest and insufficient) afterthoughts you cite were tacked on to this reactionary and lacking-in-vision crime bill by other council members, such as Graham.
Tom: How comprehensive a listing have you found Crimereports.com to carry? I'm looking, for example, for the May 31st 2006 slaying at Bruce Monroe elementary...
Mark:
crimereports.com data is ok...and also it's really the only source of info out there that's emailed to you. I'd love to see MPD or the Post set up XML/RSS feeds with comprehensive crime data.
Simply:
Repeal the tyrannical anti-gun laws of DC. Not only are they unconstitutional, but they simply HAVE NOT WORKED. Criminals are still armed, victims are not.
Guns are the devil, I know. I know. But just be *open-minded* or *tolerant* for a moment a consider: A) Most DC residents would not rush out and buy a gun. But, B) There would be national news, lefty outrage, and all sorts of huffy-puffy PR. People would know the Gun Law changed. Therefore, C) The average criminal in DC would know it, too, and would be more likely to second-guess that residential break-in, BECAUSE, "Damn, what if I get shot?!"
Why the panic-default to more cops? This reader is suprised at the card-carrying ACLU members calling for a stronger police presence. Why should we keep the "government out of bedrooms" but not in the sense that you should be able to defend said bedroom from invaders? How about some logical consistency, DCist/Yglesias?
Whatever, Audax. I'm unquestionably left, pro-gun control, ACLU-card carrying (well, in my desk drawer, anyway), and absolutely think that DC's unconstitutional effective-ban on private handgun ownership should be repealed.
Tom: The data can't be okay if it's missing a double shooting on May 31 2006 at an elementary school playground. Really. I imagine 3D's daily crime reports (.doc files) are harder to fit into the program. Not that those are always spot-on, either.
I kinda doubt that the average criminal cares much about getting shot. After all, many if not most of the murders in DC are between feuding drug crews, who are all armed. What you're advocating is akin to encouraging the bystanders at the OK Corral to join in the fun.
That's pretty poor logic. The causes behind shooting deaths of drug dealers and gang members are not related to the disincentives to entering private citizen's living spaces. I think the crimes that would be discouraged by such an action would be those that bear 'unknown' outcomes on the parts of would-be criminals. Of course I would add that juveniles found with guns, especially those who use them to commit crimes, should be tried as adults and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. If we allow juvenile delinquents to continue their free reign over the city even following a repeal of gun control laws, we would be potentially worse off than before.
CDTrave:
You need to look at the crime stats. The overwhelming majority of DC's reported violent crime doesn't occur in the home or, as you put it, "citizen's living spaces". The glaring exception to this, of course, is family violence. And handguns obviously worsen family violence matters.
If we allow juvenile delinquents to continue their free reign over the city even following a repeal of gun control laws, we would be potentially worse off than before.
Let's think this through...If, or rather when, we find a 14-year-old with a gun driving a stolen car, we're going to try him as an adult and send him to adult jail, where instead of whatever small prayer for rehabilitation remains, he'll get to rot in his cell and become unquestionably more criminal, at which point we will release him with no job skills, no education, and no motivation.....help me understand how this isn't the craziest thing that's been said all day.
Also, only 9% of those arrested in DC are juveniles. Don't let the curfew fool you. The kids are not the major problem.
Also, we need to understand why a midnight basketball league sounds great, but is the tip of the iceberg. Read The Corner by Edward Burns and David Simon. Pay no attentoin to HBO. Read the book.
we don't need more cops. we need more robot dogs patrolling the streets taking matters into their own hands. sure those washington fatcats will argue that robot dogs don't possess the congnitive reasoning skills to decipher between a hardened criminal and a mother with her 2 infant children, but isn't that what those fatcats always say? besides, the technology has improved over the years. the problem is that they don't want to shell out the cash for the deluxe model. so we'll probably end up with the clearance model robot dogs with absolutely no sense of right or wrong and then we're in a far worse position than we were before any of this.