September 12, 2006
DCist's Election Picks
We've followed the candidates for the last 16 months, and today is the day everything will be decided. We opted not to endorse any candidates, but we are going to put our betting skills to work and pick the winners for the D.C. races.
Mayor: Love him or hate him, Adrian Fenty is taking this contest. Not only has he led competitor Linda Cropp in the polls since late July, his recent endorsement by the powerful Post editorial page is sure to give him a boost among voters who may have worried about his age, his concentration span, or his experience. Beyond that, Fenty simply ran a more spirited campaign, walking District streets on a nightly basis while collecting smaller contributions from more voters than the development-heavy Cropp campaign war chest.
Council Chair: Though in a statistical tie in a recent poll, Kathy Patterson will lose by the slimmest of margins to Vincent Gray. This isn't because she's less experienced — the general consensus seems to be that she'd do just as fine a job as Chair as her opponent would. It's because the council chair race was defined, if subtly, by race. Both candidates represent the District's polar opposites, with Patterson calling affluent Ward 3 home and Gray emerging from gritty Ward 7. Gray has both the African-American vote and the Post's endorsement, giving him just the boost he needs to win.
At Large: Though we'd prefer it if incumbent Phil Mendelson could squeak by, we fear that challenger A. Scott Bolden's well-executed campaigning will hand him the win. Mendelson waited for too long to act like he was running for re-election, and as such, allowed Bolden define him in negative terms, and do so at every turn in the campaign. Much like the council chair race, the contest for this At Large seat has quietly revolved around race. Mendelson has never won a race against a single African-American candidate; he's always managed to run against two or more and see them split the vote. This time he won't be so lucky.
Ward Races: More predictable than the citywide races, we're picking Jim Graham in Ward 1, Mary Cheh in Ward 3, Harry "Tommy" Thomas Jr. in Ward 5, and Tommy Wells in Ward 6.
Other Races: Elenor Holmes Norton is likely to survive the first challenge to her reign as D.C.'s delegate to Congress, while Philip Pannell and Mike Panetta will likely become the District's shadow contingent to the Senate and House of Representatives, respectively.
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I know Fenty and Gray have not won yet, but when will a special election be held for their seats?
I’m sure there are more than a few people ready to jump in the race. Anybody know who?
The DC Home Rule Act provides that the election be held the first Tuesday more than 114 days from the date the vacancy occurs -- unless there's a general election about to happen.
By my count, that's Tuesday, April 3.
So, are these DCist's actual picks or your predictions? There is a subtle difference between the two.
I know that the elections in the District are essentially decided in the Democratic primary, but I'm still mildly surprised there isn't at least some lip service paid to the fact that the voters will not make their final selections until November.
Robbie:
"We opted not to endorse any candidates, but we are going to put our betting skills to work and pick the winners for the D.C. races."
so pick = prediction.
This summation of the DC Mayor's race from Reason.com nails it for me:
Washington, DC: A competitive mayor's race is ending, with city councilman Adrian Fenty probably edging out city council chairwoman Linda Cropp for the right to make people long for the days of Tony Williams.
Geez I hope Bolden loses. That guy is the devil.
agreed on Bolden. His spampaign was as creepy as The Unnameable One's.
So I was reading the Wash Times online, and they had an editorial saying that 1 of every 5 voters in today's election are new DC registrants. Is that true???
If so, what does that say about the current ethnic breakdown in DC? I think the city has to be getting close to a 50/50 breakdown between blacks/whites and "others," and that will probably mean major shifts in voting patterns going forward. As in, with wealthy transplants from elsewhere in the country voting more often than poor black residents of SE/NE, the ability for someone like Barry to influence DC politics would plummet, right?
Does anyone with local political insight have any thoughts on this? It just seems to me that DC must be on the verge of an inflection point, and I haven't seen much written on it anywhere.
Jason, I haven't read the article, but it's not as simple as your conclusion suggests. First, DC is a very transient town. To give a comparison, NYC has a "churn" of 2.1 percent annually. Assuming DC is the same, that's 8% new people off the bat. Second, a lot of wealthy people who come into the city replace other wealthy people leaving, so there's no power shift. Third, a lot of new DC residents are hispanic immigrants, not generally a wealthy bunch, and not a population that votes, at least at first. Fourth, candidates might have done a better job of getting people to register this time. Last time Tony didn't work too hard to get new voters to sign up.
Just off the top of my head, I think DC was 65% black in 2000. I would be shocked and stunned if that number came down to 50% by 2006. Shocked and stunned.
Assuming both Fenty and Gray retain their existing seats until the new inauguration day, which I believe is 1/2/07, then 114 days after that is 4/26/07 which is a Thursday, so the election would be May Day 2007.
Jason, you might be on to something if you assume that all new registrants are wealthy (and given the housing market around here, you might not be too far off). But I don't know of the Census estimates bear that out. Their latest numbers, based on a 2005 survey, estimate about an increase in white residents of about 2 percentage points, while the African American population declines by about 3 percentage points.
The breakdown in the 2005 survey, the breakdown is 56.8 pct African American and 32.4 pct white.
If you go by economics, the median salary is rising (though it's hard to say by how much since the 2000 numbers are in 1999 dollars and the 2005 survey results are in 2005 dollars), but the number of families living below the poverty line is unchanged, while the number of individuals living below the poverty line is down only about 1 percentage point.
But the comparison is not a perfect one as I think the covered sample universe differs from the actual 2000 census and the 2005 survey. And of course, those numbers say nothing about where in DC the population shifts are taking place.
I should clarify that the declines I mention are from 2000 to 2005.
"Just off the top of my head, I think DC was 65% black in 2000. I would be shocked and stunned if that number came down to 50% by 2006. Shocked and stunned."
Actually DC was 60% black in 2000, and that number is going south fast. By 2010 be prepared to be shocked as we approach the point where no single race has the majority in this city, sort of like how the demographics already are in Adams Morgan/Columbia Heights.
Exactly my point, Otavio. Marion Barry doesn't, shall we say, have much traction with white people, recent immigrants from El Salvador, or Asian Ph.D's who grew up in suburban Minneapolis. And once that black majority goes, I think the entire political system will be shaken up in a pretty big way.
I don't have any idea how things will change, but I have to believe that things are about to get very interesting.
I believe that the proportion of blacks among Democratic primary voters is somewhat higher than among the population as a whole, because Republicans are disproportionately white. At least one poll's likely voters were 64% black.
Jason, we passed the point where Marion Barry had much citywide traction quite a while ago. There's no way he could win a citywide office unless the vote was fragmented between a lot of candidates in the primary and the general (which would be a possibility even after further demographic shifts).
But 8 of the 13 council members are elected only by voters in their wards, not by the whole city, so changes in the citywide racial composition are irrelevant for those positions.
So what's DCist's prediction for the DC Statehood Green Party's contested race in Ward 5 between Philip Blair & Carolyn Steptoe? Or does DCist only pay attention to the democratic party?
And once that black majority goes, I think the entire political system will be shaken up in a pretty big way.
Doubt it. You're just trading one bunch of vapid overpaid notary publics for a more multiculti version. Same special interests, same batch of corporate developer necrophiles, same inextricable DCPS bureaucracy. Same gullible crowds cheering the same patronizing rhetoric.
Our only hope is a queer majority city council. Only then will we be able to tax the churches, run them out of town, and turn their properties into bathhouses. And I for one welcome our velvet mafia overlords. When was the last time anyone referred to the City Coucil as "fabulous?"
When was the last time anyone referred to the City Coucil as "fabulous?"
Collectively, never. Individually, and excepting Jim Graham? I think Carol Schwartz might have gone through a phase in college.
monkeyrotica, that is the BEST.POLITICAL.SCENARIO.EVER.
I just voted in SE and I was amazed by the people lined up voting for Linda Cropp!
What impresses me about her is her tough stance
on crime. She is committed to working hard to keep our streets safe. Cropp will take strong action to crack down on crime in our neighborhoods in order to protect our seniors and children.
I urge everyone to vote for her today!
Jim Graham: definitely fabulous. David Catania: never was.
. . . same inextricable DCPS bureaucracy . . .
Is there anything that can be done about this? IMHO the bloated admin at DCPS is the putrid well spring from where so many of this city's problems flow.
Thank you for shilling, Terrell.
Now buh-bye.
Actually, Ron, I had a bit of a crush on Catania for a while....although Graham would be a more satisfying dinner date, Catania has a certain lost puppy dog thing going....
Jason.
If you are going to accuse me of being a "shrill" use the right word.
You sound ignorant to the way the world works.
Linda Cropp simply has more experience and the right ideas among the candidates to be DC's next Mayor.
Fenty is not ready to lead our City.
Many of my friends have already voted for Linda Cropp and I expect her to ride to victory tonight.
Catania's a whore, same as the rest. Went to talk to him one day about something that would (honestly) benefit the District, and before I even got back to my office, I had an email from his political operation with a fundraising pitch.
No Terrell, I think he meant shill
shill Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[shil] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation Slang.
–noun
1. a person who poses as a customer in order to decoy others into participating, as at a gambling house, auction, confidence game, etc.
2. a person who publicizes or praises something or someone for reasons of self-interest, personal profit, or friendship or loyalty.
Terrell, "shill" is the right word. I'm resisting the urge to turn the ignorant thing back on you, but you're asking for it. Now go stump somewhere else.
I kind of like the trolls around election time. It's sort of like football on Turkey Day--I don't really care about the sport, but the presence lets me know that the machinery of America is still running, flaws or no.
You guys are being to hard on Terrell.
He probably went to DC Public Schools. Linda Cropp, by the way, has great education credentials.
For Washingtonians like me who are concerned about the quality of education their children are getting in the DC school system, Cropp is the person who can reform our school system and ensure EVERY child is prepared today to compete tomorrow.
Ms. Cropp is a former educator. She served as President of the DC School Board and is credited with creating Banneker High School, one of the top 50 high schools in the country according to Newsweek.
Ms. Cropp’s education plan is focused on making sure our schools are safe and foster learning. Linda Cropp is clearly the best candidate for mayor of the District.
Jeremy, if Terrell went to a DC public school - as you suggest - in the past 26 years, Linda Cropp has only herself to blame for shills who can't shill properly.
Since DCist is to pussy to do endorsements, I give you my
THE CORRECT WAY TO VOTE
Mayor: Linda Cropp
Fenty opposed baseball 100%. Cropp negotiated tough, forced some concessions from baseball but made it happen.
Delegate: Eleanor Holmes Norton
I don't know who that other hippy is but Eleanor does a good job, except for that Colbert interview.
Council Chairman: Kathy Patterson
A 12 year record of tough oversight of the city's corrupt, mismanaged departments.
At Large: Phil Mendelson
Bolden is a K street business lobbyist creep.
Ward 3: Mary Cheh
She seems smart. Though Robert Gordon seems good too. If you vote for Jonathan Rees I'll personally find you and kick your ass.
"For Washingtonians like me who are concerned about the quality of education their children are getting in the DC school system, Cropp is the person who can reform our school system and ensure EVERY child is prepared today to compete tomorrow."
Not to be harsh, but anyone that would post this is either a Cropp campaign worker or a moron, or both.
This language is clearly taken from some idiot campaign brochure.
There will never be a day where EVERY kid in DC schools succeeds. Ever. Period.
Come on, shills. At least try to mix it up and pretend that you are voicing original thoughts from average voters. Your scripted postings are just silly, albeit slightly entertaining.
So, monkeyrotica's comment from earlier today got me thinking.....
How gay IS DC?
What percentage of DC residents would you say are homo? I'm thinking it might be somewhere in the range of 25-30%. Anyone else have any hard stats on this?
I've never been a big bathhouse fan, but I'd be absolutely beside myself to see a couple of DC churches become bathhouses.
At least DC would get some actual tax revenue out of the deal.
"Beside myself" with anger, or with glee, Hillman?
This is one of those phrases that can mean its oppositem, which I've never understood and always found fairly maddening.
I could go for a big, gay version of Tryst myself.
I think DC is very gay. It'd be hard to put a percentage on it, but it's a very gay town. Just look at the sheer number of gay sports and activities we have here. Gay bar patronage in DC has never been a good measure, since a lot of people are closeted here and most gay bars in DC suck (and not in a good way). And of course the internet is killing the gay bar industry nationwide, and especially in DC.
Jason. Good point. I meant beside myself with glee. Of course, the obvious name for a bathhouse in a former church would be The Baptismal.
I used to try to be more respectful of churches here in DC, but by and large so many of them have shown nothing but complete disrespect for me and the rest of the city, so I say let the jokes commence...
Yeah, Hillman, I almost get the same gay vibe from DC that I do from NY, although in DC there's also the whole straight Adams Morgan frat thing going on. It's not as gay as Canada (60% gay/40% convinceable), but for the US it's about as close as we get.
Every once in a while, the gayness in DC completely throws me, though, because it surfaces in the most low-key ways. I'm convinced I missed a chance to sleep with a drunk, jet-lagged straight guy a couple of weeks ago. *Sigh.*
The 'convinceables' never interested me much. Probably because I'm really vain and I like to hear the guy tell me how much he wants it, and 'straight' boys are loathe to actually verbalize what's going on.
DC has an unusual vibe on sexuality all around. I think for a couple of reasons. First, a lot of DC is highly educated. And with that comes a more nuanced and open view of sex issues generally. Second, we get a ton of people that may feel like DC is the proverbial 'big city' and they will cut loose here in ways they wouldn't back home in Bugtussle. And we, like NY, get a lot of these small-towners with years of pent-up desires and frustrations (there's nothing more rowdy than a conservative Republican staffer who finally owns up to what really yanks his chain).
Hillman,
Have we just hijacked the DCist election thread and turned it into a gay.com chat room?
Just askin'.
;-)
For a state-by-state (including the District) breakdown of the percentage of gay/lesbians overall and by Census tract (based on the 2000 Census), see Gates and Ost's The Gay and Lesbian Atlas. It's a great coffee table book, too.
The D.C. Statehood Green Party is the only major political party in Washington, DC that has same-sex marriage written into our platform.
In November you'll have the opportunity to vote for candidates who support this human right.
So the name "Nikolas" is now a registered trademark?
Isn't that taking things just a bit too far?
Are there a lot of gay people in Bugtussle? I have to believe that there are, because that is one gay town name.
Delegate: Eleanor Holmes Norton
I don't know who that other hippy is
I voted for Norton myself, but I'm tickled that you call Andy Miscuk, who was a sergeant in the Green Berets, a "hippy."
Hillman,
Have we just hijacked the DCist election thread and turned it into a gay.com chat room?
Yes, you have. But I'll chime in here as the token straight boy.
DC is pretty gay, but I think you could say that about a lot large metropolitan areas. I don't know if it's just that times have changed or what, but I definitely know more gay people in DC than I ever did before.
I believe my question was directed at HillMAN, token straight boy.
;-)
DC feels way gayer to me than Chicago (which is where I'm from.) But it's sort of hard to quantify that feeling, which is why I thought to ask the question yesterday. And the whole "straight" guy at the bar with his knee touching mine, intense eye contact, etc. the other day got me thinking as well.....
I believe my question was directed at HillMAN, token straight boy.
;-)
DC feels way gayer to me than Chicago (which is where I'm from.) But it's sort of hard to quantify that feeling, which is why I thought to ask the question yesterday. And the whole "straight" guy at the bar with his knee touching mine, intense eye contact, etc. the other day got me thinking as well.....
DC feels way gayer to me than Chicago (which is where I'm from.)
I think there's something in the water here, 'cause there is definitely some sort of ambiguiously gay vibe in this city. I even got caught up in it myself once, making out with one of my teammates on a $50 bet. I don't know how you guys get used to kissing someone with a moustache and goatee.
>>I even got caught up in it myself once, making out with one of my teammates on a $50 bet.
Details, man, details... this sounds like the beginning of a very good porn video. (And who got the $50?)
>>I don't know how you guys get used to kissing someone with a moustache and goatee.
The same way women do. Actually, while some goatees can be wiry as a Brillo pad, some are actually very soft - just depends on the genetics, I guess. Although, moustaches kind of went out 15 years or so ago, didn't they?
Details, man, details... this sounds like the beginning of a very good porn video. (And who got the $50?)
About five years ago, I was sitting around at the now defunct Sullivan's Emerald Isle watching football. At the time they had a $20 all you can drink special on Sunday's and I had been there for several hours drinking heavily. My then girlfriend (now my wife) had borrowed my car to go to Target earlier in the day and had returned to pick me up.
There were maybe a half dozen of us total in the bar when the talk turned to lesbianism. My wife, being a prototypical feminist, started on some snooze-inducing diatribe about the double standard for women and men when it came to the relative acceptibility of them making out with each other while drunk. Our response was that it wasn't a big deal and somehow that turned into her betting me and the bartender $50 that we wouldn't tongue kiss each other. We told her to put the money on the bar and we would do it, she slapped 2 20's and a 10 on the bar; so we kissed for about 20 seconds and collected our money. We split the money 50/50, it really wasn't a big deal.
I really need to start going to some of these bars more often. Instead, I end up at gay bars where the cute bartenders spend all their time flirting with the women who are there. It's just not right.
Was the bartender at least attractive?
>>There were maybe a half dozen of us total in the bar when the talk turned to lesbianism.
Ah, yes, the longstanding tradition of Irish sports bar lesbian tertulias.
I really need to start going to some of these bars more often. Instead, I end up at gay bars where the cute bartenders spend all their time flirting with the women who are there. It's just not right.
What's the deal with gay guys flirting with women all the time, is it just to cockblock the straight guys that are around? Haters!
Was the bartender at least attractive?
Only if you like big, ugly rugby players.
Actually, HR, often the bartenders at gay bars are straight (at least that's the case in NYC.) Since gay guys tend to gravitate toward straight dick, I think the bartenders work there because the tips are better.