DCist T-Shirts
dcistshirt.jpg
About DCist

DCist is a website about Washington, D.C. More

Editor: Sommer Mathis Publisher: Gothamist

About | Advertising | Archive | Contact | Mobile | Photos | Staff | Subscribe

Categories
DCist Exposed Photography Show -- Feb 20-Mar 7
Favorites
Contribute

Latest tip:

There is a suspicious package being investigated near 12th and D St SW, in front of the new Homel [more]

 

Latest link:

 

Latest Photo:

 

Recent Comments
Subscribe
Use an RSS reader to stay up to date with the latest news and posts from DCist.
Overheard
Voting Rights
Public Calendar
Links

November 2, 2006

DCist's Election Guide 2006

Written by DCist contributor Alex Hogan and Martin Austermuhle

vote22.JPG

vote22.JPG

vote22.JPGD.C. Mayor, City Council: Ok, so the September Democratic primary kinda took the air out of the District's official mayoral election, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't go vote. Look for a crushing Democratic sweep, but give a little time and check out what the Statehood Green and Republican candidates, Chris Otten and David Kranich, respectively, have to offer. We'd like to think that someday their parties will be competitive, but this just isn't the year. Council-member David Catania (I-At Large) will easily return for another council session.

Maryland Governor: Poor Bob Ehrlich. The incumbent governor can’t get any respect in the Old Line State. Sure, most of his campaign promises, including legalizing slot machines, stronger penalties for gun crimes, and more money to public schools, crashed and burned in Annapolis. And yes, he has spent more time feuding with the Democratic-controlled Assembly (and the Baltimore Sun) than signing his name to bills. But things are going pretty well in Maryland, and most residents are satisfied with the state of the state and Ehrlich’s job performance. Even the Post thinks Bob should get another shot in the governor’s chair. Unfortunately, Ehrlich happens to be a registered Republican. And in a state that is 2-1 Democrat and where President George W. Bush’s approval ratings have dipped so low that he only really ever visits the state to go mountain biking in a private facility, it's not surprising that Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley (D) commands a 10-point lead over the incumbent, scary law and order commercials demonizing Charm City aside. Look for Baltimore County “Ehrlich Democrats” to return to the fold and secure a comfortable O’Malley victory.

Maryland Senator: It's days before the elections and Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) has finally gotten the people of Maryland to like him. What’s there not to like? A self-made man who can clearly think for himself, he came off as a charming and well-informed candidate on the campaign trail, particularly when compared with Rep. Ben Cardin (D), the genial eminence of the Maryland Democratic Party. We also hear he likes puppies (and George W. Bush, according to Cardin). Too bad most Marylanders don’t like Republicans. Despite keeping the R-word off his campaign literature and out of his cutesy TV ads, most voters, particularly African-American ones, remember that he is still the second-highest elected Republican official in the state and that he said some very nice things about Bush a couple years ago. He will do as well as a Republican could expect to do in this environment, which is nowhere near enough to win. Third party unity candidate Kevin Zeese came off well in the debates and raised important issues but never climbed above 3 percent in the polls. Look for a Cardin win and a return to one-party dominance in crab country.

Virginia Senator: If Democratic senatorial nominee Jim Webb accomplished anything this year, it was to sink all hopes of an Allen '08 presidential campaign. Sen. George Allen (R) got caught with his foot in his mouth so many times this campaign season that one has to assume he likes the taste of his cowboy boots. Thanks to his creative use of racial slurs, revelations of his repeated use of the N-word while in college, and an obsession with the Confederate flag that might embarrass Bo and Luke Duke, Sen. Macaca managed to turn a nearly 20-point lead in the summer into to a dead heat with Webb by October. It helped that the Democrats picked a nearly ideal candidate for Virginia. Webb -- a native-born Virginian, Vietnam vet, and former Reagan Republican -- predicted that the invasion of Iraq would be a disaster even before it started and campaigned as a down to earth economic populist. As a first-time candidate, though, he's a little rough around the edges and his grotesquely sexist comments regarding women in the military didn’t help build enthusiasm among traditionally Democratic-leaning women voters. But he still managed to turn a guaranteed Republican re-election into the most exciting Senate race in the country, and he effectively proved that when Allen wants to campaign on the issues, he obviously means sending aides to dig through Webb's books for anything to use against him. The race will be very tight, but Allen will probably squeak by thanks to turnout south of the Rappahannock River. And as has been the tendency in the past, an Allen victory will make Northern Virginia ask, "Wouldn't our own state be nice?"

Virginia Ballot Question One: Lucky Virginians. Because traditional marriage is being threatened left, right, and center by the gays, commonwealth residents will have the chance to amend their constitution to make sure that the holy union remains an Adam and Ever affair, not Adam and Steve. And just as with Allen's likely re-election, the southern and conservative swath of Virginia will likely carry this amendment to victory -- much to the chagrin of the more liberal and economically productive north. But when a door closes a window opens, right? New Jersey may soon become a gay mecca.

Congressional Seats: Let's face it -- we shouldn't expect any real surprises in the contests for congressional seats in the Washington area. Many of the incumbents are either moderate enough to cross party lines or are effective enough in representing their constituents to save themselves from defeat. And anyhow, we need to keep Tom Davis (R) in his seat, if anything because right now he's the only real hope that the District has to get a voting seat in the House.

D.C. School Board President: Revelations by the Examiner of D.C. Board of Education (BOE) Vice-President Carolyn Graham’s covering up of sleazy dealings by the BOE’s Charter School office hasn’t helped her campaign to become BOE President. City Administrator Robert Bobb has the big bucks and the backing of the cities political establishment, but look for strong grassroots challenges by public school activist (and father of a DCPS student — the only one!) Laurent Ross and former University of the District of Columbia President Timothy Jenkins. “Advocate and letter writer” Sunday Abraham’s name will also be on the ballot.

D.C. School Board: Voters in Wards 5 and 6 have their choice of former Eastern High teacher and Fix Our Schools founder Marc Borbely, former Cesar Chavez Public Charter School administrator Lisa Raymond, educational researcher Stephane Baldi, and Advisory Neighborhood Commissioners Mary Baird-Currie and Robert Vinson Brannum. Voters east of the river in Wards 7 and 8 can return incumbent William Lockridge or go with Ward 8 ANCer Jacque D. Patterson. Community activists Jackie Pinckney-Hackett and Cardell Shelton have also thrown their hat into the ring. All DCist can say is do your homework and pick wisely. If our likely next Mayor Adrian Fenty (D) has his way, this might be the last time you get to vote for a school board.


Email This Entry







Advertisement: DCist Continues Below!

Comments (14)

In future elections, having a guide that covers the ANC candidates would be helpful as well. This level of DC government rarely gets the coverage it needs. It is at this level where the success of individual communities in DC is determined as certain commissioners/chairs fail to listen to their constituents and ride on the coattails of being the incumbent.

 

What about the shadow delegation?

Please update this entry with your picks for Shadow Senator and Shadow Representative.

 

Anyone have any thoughts on the Arlington School Board race? I took a look through the candidates' website and they both seem like decent folk. Anything else I should know?

 

The Common Denominator newspaper used to post information of every ANC candidate on their webite. But they just went out of business so we need a new source.

 

"much to the chagrin of the more liberal and economically productive north."

What is the relevance of the "economically productive" comment? I can only assume what you're getting at is that since NoVa gives a lot more than it takes from Richmond's coffers that the rest of the state should not be telling it how to run its business. Now I am no fan of the proposed amendment and hope it loses, but I still believe in one person, one vote. Whether NoVa is the economic engine that keeps SoVa alive is irrelevant. There are enough reasons to oppose the amendment without resorting to economic condescention. (And for the record, I would not be terribly surprised if the amendment carries in Loudoun County, which is the richest county in the country)

 

I think that this entire post misses the point of what an "Election Guide" is supposed to be. I was under the impression that they should provide voters with a succinct summary of who is running in each race, and what their major positions are. All you've offered here is a half-assed summary of SOME races laced with conventional wisdom predictions about who will win.

Telling the voters that certain races are already decided could even have a negative (if tiny) effect on voter turnout, and does your readers and the political system a disservice. The Maryland Senate race, as just one example, is far from such a sure thing for Cardin, especially given a spate of recent endorsements by prominent PG County Democrats.

I know this is a blog, and that everyone is volunteering their time and effort, but the way this feature is presented its only marginally informative and more or less useless as a source of information for voters who are actually still trying to make their decisions.

 

For a lot more details on candidates please check out their websites or your state's League of Women Voters website. Here is DC's

www.lwvdc.org/GenElection.html

 

Your info on the MD governor race is outdated. (Baltimore Sun and Rasmussen have the race at +1 O'Malley.) The WashPost poll has already been roundly criticized for oversampling black voters.

Steele's a tough one to call because of the black turnout issues. The race is pegged at +5 Cardin right now, but I see it being a nailbiter due to lower than expected black turnout (and a higher percentage of blacks voting for Steele than current polls are estimating).

 

The Post based their O'Malley poll on an African American turnout of around 25%. The Sun based their's on a turnout of around 19% which I think is a little too low. That was around the turnout in 2002 which was unique for various reasons. So I don't think its as close as the Sun made it sound.

Today the O'Malley campaign released the results of their poll taken over the same period of time as the Sun poll(Oct 28-30) except that theirs used a larger sample. You can read it here:

http://www.martinomalley.com/page/-/PollingMemo110106.pdf


They had O'Malley up 6 points, so I think the Post poll was closer to the mark. O'Malley will have to work hard over the next few days but I think he will pull through.

Ok time to go back to work.

 

... Allen will probably squeak by thanks to turnout south of the Rappahannock River.

You sure about that? Webb's pretty strong in Hampton Roads and Richmond City. Allen's base is the Richmond suburbs, the far-flung DC exurbs, and rural south / southwest. And the latest polls have Webb in front.

 

Webb takes VA, and the nation will be better off for it.

~

Chris_S, that's a tough one, in Arlington. The upside is that they're both excellent candidates.

 

I'm hopeful about a Webb win, but I think it will be very close, and if Allen pulls it off I won't be surprised.

Whatever happens, I think that the results will show that Northern Virginia would definately be a blue state if it were a state. The stupid marriage amendment will pass, but I don't think the margins will be as wide as many people were thinking.

 

Steele's biggest problem from a NoVA resident's perspective is that he is running strong in a year that the Dems have an outside shot at taking the Senate. I can't imagine moderate Dems that may not like Cardin crossing the aisle when it could cost the party control of the Senate. I know usually elections will be more local but when Dems are so fired up about defeating the president's party, I am not sure that Steele (and for that case the R in NJ) have a real shot.

 

It's not so clear that all the area congressional race outcomes are assured. The Virginia 10th district has become competitive with Rep. Frank Wolf (R) defending against Judy Feder (D).

 
Post a comment (Comment Policy)

2003-2009 Gothamist LLC. All rights reserved. Terms of Use & Privacy Policy. We use MovableType.

Site Meter