November 28, 2006
Snow Patrol
Ah, late autumn, when we all gather around the Thanksgiving turkey in our flip-flops and cutoffs, raise our frozen drinks to friends and family, and jump in the pool. But while it may be true that this year we can swim any day in November, January's not making any promises, at least according to several teams of local weather forecasters, who've compiled their tea leaves and groundhog shadows into predictions for the coming winter. Enjoy the warmth while you can readers; the weather outside is about to turn frightful. Maybe.
A number of factors, including El Niño and something called the North Atlantic Oscillation, have led forecasters to predict below average temperatures for January through March (and particularly January) along with above average precipitation. Capital Weather is anticipating January temps between two and four degrees colder than normal along with precipitation some 20 to 30 percent higher than normal. CW goes on to predict between 19 and 25 inches of snow for D.C. and the Virginia suburbs and between 23 and 29 inches for Montgomery County (Prince George's is only supposed to get 17 to 23 inches; sorry kids). Accuweather and ABC7's Doug Hill are also predicting a colder than normal winter, with snowfall about 150 percent of normal for the metropolitan area.
We know we ought to take all this with a six foot drift of salt, but we can't help it; we're convinced and we're excited. How about you guys? We'll test out the wisdom of (DCist reading) crowds with our snow poll. How much snow do you think the area can expect this winter?
Post art by Martin Austermuhle. Thanks to Catherine Andrews for assistance with this post.
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Bring it on.
Love watching all these southerners go berserk at the mention of the "s" word.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
4 more months until march . . . 4 more months until march . . . 4 more months until march . . . 4 more months until march . . . 4 more months until march . . . 4 more months until march . . . 4 more months until march . . .
Woot!
I love that I get a day off when the federal government closes. Nothing like a snow day as a grownup.
Welcome back Ryan!
Considering the tone and tenor of TV weather reports last winter, I move that we rename snow something like "white flakes of death". That way, the term will have the right amount of gravitas for the doom-and-gloom weather forecasts that inevitably roll in every time the wind picks up this January.
Is it true that the counties around DC have a certain amount of snow days built into the calendar, thus they are inclined to use them at the mere threat of snow?
Up north each snow day meant another school day in June. The Superintendent had to think things over a little more before pulling the trigger each time Dr. Mel Goldstein yelled snow.
I think the infrastructure in the DC metropolitan area is set up to have a lot of (pointless) snow days. All decisions are countywide (unlike the town-by-town decisions up north), so if it's too dangerous anywhere, everywhere gets the day off.
Nothing, however, was weaker than when they delayed school last year because of cold. And it wasn't even freezing! What coddling!
Ditto, Bill. I love watching newscasts of people in lines 10 deep stocking up on milk and water in anticipation of an inch of snow. Get a grip, people. Stock up on some gin instead and learn how to drive in it already.
OK, both Bill and Carrie have chimed in. Would any other self-satisfied northerners like to add their own pompous words of condescenscion to this discussion? I, for one, would love to hear much more about my inferiority as a DC resident and motorist for my having been raised in a warmer climate. Why, afterall, should total inexperience with snowfall be any excuse for the inclination to treat it cautiously? We southerners are simpleton boobs and we need to be reminded of it often.
Is it true that the counties around DC have a certain amount of snow days built into the calendar, thus they are inclined to use them at the mere threat of snow?
I went to high school in Prince William County and they did build five snow days into the calendar each school year; if the days went unused they lopped off the end of the year.
Scott-
News flash:
The south is dumb.
We had the same arrangment in NJ. As I recall, the tendency to call an unnecessary snow day increased greatly after a bus accident on a day that was borderline.. sometime in the mid-90s.
The main weather hazard in San Fran is not snow, but fog. In the afternoons, the fog rolls in obscuring verything in a thick cloak and making driving very perilous...this happens pretty much year around, so people adapt accordingly. in the afternoons, you just take your dog to the brewpub, since you can't drive anywhere.
and Scott.. A bit touchy today, are we?
"Stock up on some gin instead and learn how to drive in it already."
And in the north, they know how to drive in gin!
For the record, I am the Bill in post #1, not #10.
I forgot to add:
-everyone needs to clear off their darn sidewalks after a snowfall
-4WD does not make an SUV stop faster
-those big bling bling tires and wheels are not made for snow and ice
I grew up in the South and upon moving to Pennsylvania for school quickly learned how to drive in more inclement weather than I was used to. It's really not that hard if you just make a good-faith effort, and no, trying to pass off unwillingness to adapt as mere inexperience doesn't count.
The hysteria down here over snow has less to do with drivers' inexperience and more to do with local news neilsen ratings. This seeps into the world of Things You Talk About at Work When You Have Nothing Else to Talk About, and then the hysteria becomes self-perpetuating.
I don't think DC drivers are really that much worse with the snow (although the local governments are pitiful in snow clearance) I just think it doesn't snow here enough to make news about snow unprofitable, thus local news continues to see green in all that white.
Reid--the decisions on closing schools are made on a county basis because that is how schools are run down here, unlike in New England, where towns run schools, not counties. They can't close part of a school system and not the others, because buses, school calendars, salaries, etc., are all county-wide.
And having spent considerable time up north but having grown up down here, I am glad people freak out in the snow. I HATED driving to work in crappy weather and having all the SUV-equipped New Englanders fly by me at ridiculous speeds. Snow and ice are dangerous and make for treacherous driving conditions and should be treated as such.
I was born and raised in Bethesda and here's the deal on the snow day policy, at least in Montgomery County:
5 snow days are built into the school calendar. There are regulations regarding how many days kids have to be in school, and they add the 5 onto those so that, should a snow day occur, they won't have to add on at the end of the year. If there are more than 5 snow days, the days are either made up at the end of the year or during spring break. No days are taken off the end of the year if fewer snow days are used.
As for those of you who think it's ridiculous that they cancel at the mention of snow: yes, sometimes it's just idiotic. But one day in 2003/2004 they cancelled school due to the threat of snow, and it didn't snow, so the next time they mentioned snow they didn't cancel school. But it was icy, and 6 kids who were driving to school (including myself) ended up in car accidents because of ice.
Yeah, Fairfax County in VA had the same schedule when I was in school. When we missed too much in the winter of 94 or 96 (I forget which one), the solution was to add seven minutes to the school day for the last couple months of school to meet the "time in school" required by law. Those seven minutes were often spend constructively staring at the clock from 2:20 to 2:27.
Scott ...
I have plenty of patience with people who genuinely have NEVER experienced snow. But come on, it snows here every year, and every year you'd think it was the very first time any "southerners" had ever encountered the stuff. If you just moved here this summer from Hawaii, fine, I'll cut you a lot of slack. Otherwise, my northern self-satisfaction will manifest itself as I watch your car fishtail into the ditch.
I don't care if the media overhypes the snow - I like seeing people cross-country ski around Dupont Circle. People must be watching all of these local news reports or they wouldn't keep doing it. Now if it would actually just snow a good foot or two...
Hey Ryan - Where are you writing from that you can swim any day in November?
dear logan, it's a line from the postal service. it's all about the scenester points, baby, all about the points.
wow, what a childish fight. so let me add my childish .02:
if you think quoting the postal service is going to get you "scenester points", you're about 3 years too late. that album needs to never be played again.
Reid, thanks for the walk down memory lane...here's another 'shout out' to Dr. Mel Goldstein! For the record, until SUVs became the "it" car, New Englanders got through the snow just fine in their wood-paneled station wagons. LET IT SNOW! :)
Another Bill: Having grown up in Dallas, I can legitimately say I have "experienced snow" in the driving sense only once, and that was because I went to school 70 miles north of Dallas... DFW completely shuts down in event of snow, largely because it is so infrequent that the cities don't maintain any clearance equipment. Why purchase and maintain/warehouse equipment that you only have even marginal use for every two or three years? Most cities have removable spreaders that can be put on dumptrucks, but even then they throw sand, not salt.
So yes, someone moving here from the south is unlikely to have ever driven in it. And there's a degree of practice as well. Any average 16 year old in new england has far more experience than I do. I'm not afraid of it, but I understand why people are, especially those that don't drive all that much anyway. Delivering pizza for 2 years in college got me over any fear of driving in any condition- you just adjust your approach accordingly.
Brody, you make a very good point. DC does not get as much snow as, say, Chicago or New England, two places I spent a lot of time driving before moving here in '84. And you're right, it makes sense for cities like Dallas to simply close for a day or two instead of investing in a lot of snow gear.
The point I was making was that most Washingtonians seem to treat every snowfall as though it's the first they've ever seen. It is not just a "southerners vs northerners" thing.
TTwo thoughts. First when July rolls around I don't want to hear a single New England transplant complain about heat/humidity. You have your comfortable climate, we have ours.
Second, I don't think that people fear snow; it's that they dislike it intensely. A lot of people drive with no sense in the, snow is begging for disaster. Also, county governments take their time clearing snow. It might be because snowstorms are short, so they wait until they're over to start, it might be because they're lazy. The truth relies on how cynical you feel that day. Additionally, as this is a warmer climate, snow goes to black ice in a heartbeat and as this area is pretty car reliant, things shut down. This combination of ludicrously unsafe roads is what has people buying bread and milk. In many areas if you can't drive, you can't leave your house.
I'm sure the Somalians delivering pizzas around Adams Morgan on scooters at 2 a.m. just love snow. I guess it's better than having someone fire an RPG at you, but still...
"TTwo thoughts. First when July rolls around I don't want to hear a single New England transplant complain about heat/humidity. You have your comfortable climate, we have ours."
Washingtonians don't complain about the heat? That's news to me.
And for the record, New Englanders complain about the snow in New England plenty. You see, no matter what your background, if you don't love the first couple of snowfalls, you're dead inside. But a couple of snowfalls is about all we get here in DC. In New England, they get giddy about the first couple just the same as Washingtonians. By January, however, it loses its charm and they bitch about it, just like Washingtonians bitch about 100 degree days with humidity.
Having grown up in the deep south, Louisiana, I can say that I have absolutely no experience driving in snow. Thank goodness I don't drive in DC because I am still getting accustomed to walking the stuff. However, if I come accross a smug self indulgent man with a shirt proclaiming himself "Bill- the supercool northerner who can drive in snow and thinks the south is dumb", I will make sure to swerve my bike right into you. Anyway, I love snow and am looking forward to my 2nd winter living in a city that gets it.
WHERE IS THIS SNOW?!?!?