December 5, 2006
District on Pace for Record Low Crime Totals in 2006
If you're one of those folks who tend to get your news primarily from the evening broadcasts of local television stations, or the tour diaries of Oregonian indie bands, you can be forgiven for missing the biggest crime story of the year for the District: namely, that there's a lot less of it. We fretted along with the rest of the city back in late spring and early summer that the downward trend in the city's crime had reached an endpoint, but one crime emergency and several very quiet months later, the city is on pace to close 2006 with some of the lowest numbers in key crime categories in decades.
With just a few weeks left in the year, total crime numbers are down in most of the city's seven police districts, even in the first and seventh districts, and up slightly in the third — though the increase is far smaller than what one might have expected given the crime statistics through July. While property crimes remain an issue in the first and third districts, which contain the most dense and rapidly developing neighborhoods in the city, the violence associated with those crimes has leveled off, a marked departure from the situation during the first half of the year.
For the city as a whole, sexual assaults are up slightly, but robberies are down 5 percent for the year, assaults with a deadly weapon are down 2 percent, thefts are down 3 percent, and stolen cars are down 11 percent. Homicides in 2006 have plummeted 43 percent in the fourth police district, 32 percent in the seventh, and 28 percent in the fifth. Perhaps most notably, Washington is currently on pace to record 163 homicides in 2006, down from 196 in 2005, 242 in 2000, and 479 back in 1991. The drops are more remarkable still considering the recent revelation that D.C.'s population is once again increasing.
While we should probably feel good about the city's longterm prospects for increased safety, the summer surge in crime should remind us that policies still matter. Let's hope incoming police chief Cathy Lanier is able to continue improving public safety in the District in a responsible fashion.
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Between this post and the huge thread on the dangers of Shaw/U Street, I'm so confused. Should I feel dangerous or safe? Please, someone tell me how to feel before I have to think for myself.
I think that this once again enforces the primacy of scientific analysis and statistical sampling over the less-effective "ask some indie-rock dudes what they think" school of thought.
Nobody asked any indie-rock dudes what they thought. I was writing about my experience for a Portland newspaper's blog about feeling uncomfortable with the situation after we played a show (which I still stand by as being sketchy). DCist chose to make something big out of it by reproducing and criticizing my hastily and poorly-chosen words. However, I'm happy to read these statistics and find myself proven wrong about a great city.
Do the statistics measure the severity of violence? I was under the impression that there was a dangerous trend of run-of-the-mill muggings becoming more violent. I suppose robbery and assault are different categories and a spike in violent muggings would show up as a spike in assault (or would it?) but to what extent are these stats able to measure intensity of violence, as opposed to frequency of violence.
That's a good question, Reid, and since I'm just using aggregated stats, it's hard to know the answer. Homicides are down pretty much everywhere, so to the extent that crimes are becoming more violent, they aren't resulting in an increase in violent deaths. Robberies are also down, but assaults with a deadly weapon in some neighborhoods are up. My guess is that, in general, crime is becoming less frequent and less violent, but there are exceptions in some areas, probably in connection with specific groups of criminals who adopt increased violence as an MO.
Marion Barry was only arrested once this year which put a huge dent in the stats.
Yeah that's my impression. Fewer criminals perhaps, but a few criminals becoming more violent. But, it's just an impression from things I've read, and I'm willing to believe what the stats tell me if they're able to support or disprove that impression.
And for the record, Winter Farwell is one of my favorite albums.
Can we lighten up on Dave et al? It seems a bit ingracious. Why would someone from Portland be expected to know enough about the local scene to discern whether those local kids were really menacing him, or just having some fun at his expense? For that matter, since none of us were there, why would we?
"the primacy of scientific analysis"
that has a nice ring to it, its the "cellar door" for a new generation
There is, of course, another possibility. In Baltimore the police have been "encouraged" to be creative with crime reporting and statistics.
There's no indication that DC is doing something similar, but its a little weird that everyone I know feels less safe than they did a couple of years ago in our neighborhood, but the crime stats keep heading south. One possibility is that people are getting jaded to certain types of crime, and simply don't bother reporting them anymore.
These stats are encouraging, but we are making a lot of assumptions.
First, these are reported crimes. A lot of DC residents get tired of the hours-long process of filing a police report, since we know that the chance of an actual arrest and jail time and/or drug/alcohol treatment is slim to none.
Second, we assume city and police workers are actually entering all the reported crimes into a database.
Third, we also assume the DC police are being totally honest and providing data on all crimes.
Yes, DC is safer now. But as compared to what? The rathole we used to be?
Just how many homicides do you suppose are going unreported? A nearly 20% drop in homicides, year on year, is a pretty meaningful statistic.
Okay, someone with google map skills, through up a map of the number of crimes in each neighborhood per year.
I would guess that we'll see a few more murders and violent crimes in NW than we're used (such as that young man in Georgetown who was murdered in a most heinous way). When crime was more contained to certain sections, we all felt safe not going there.
But with gentrification, we're now going 'there', and there is probably some spillover in the other direction.
Regarding the comparative number of homicides year to year- I’m sure the number is decreasing. But that’s only part of the story.
I know of one homicide, in PSA 302 on May 31st at Bruce Monroe elementary on GA ave, that doesn't appear to have made it into the crime stats. I only know of this one because I was involved in crime reduction efforts in the area at the time. Like most people, I don't follow the crime reports on a city-wide basis. Here's what Insp Burke wrote about the homicide at BM at the time:
"...there was a shooting last night at Bruce Monroe that consequently resulted in a homicide. At approximately 10:50 P.M. a group of males was playing basketball, when an unidentified black male approached and began firing. The decedent (a 28 year old male) was struck in the head. A 16 year old male was transported to med-star with non-life threatening injuries."
I don't recall hearing of an arrest associated with this. Maybe the shooter(s) were killed in one of the several subsequent murders in the area. Moreover, this is not the only crime at that site which didn’t find its way into any stats. Until DCPS beautification day (just before the start of the 06/07 school year), there were around 30 or 40 bullet holes (of various caliber) in the school doors at that location. Many of these no doubt resulted from one or more of the incidents associated with a "shots fired" 911 call. None of these “shots fired” calls go into the crime stats.
Big picture, it seems to me that crime stats could be changed by any number of alterations in what gets reported, and what specific incidents are reported as being. I would use the crime stats as a comparative baseline, but not rely on them for real numbers. They certainly undercount actual crime- reported or not.