December 18, 2006
D.C. Now Only Capital, not Murder Capital
With 2006 fast coming to a close, the District on Friday reported what is surely cause for celebration -- the city's homocide tally, once one of the highest in the nation, is down, and dramatically so. According to current statistics, the District has suffered 156 homicides this year, 18.3 percent less than the same time in 2005 and 35 short of last year's total of 191. Short of a citywide killing spree in the next 14 days, this year's mark will follow a downward trend since the shameful days of the early- to mid-1990s, when homicides hovered around 400.
The news is sure to be gold to Williams, who is looking to cement something resembling a positive legacy in his final days in office. On the other hand, it adds certain weight to incoming Police Chief Cathy Lanier and mayor-elect Adrian Fenty, both of whom are looking to improve upon the work of Williams and current chief Charles Ramsey.
The stats beg the difficult question -- how? What has pushed the District's rate of homicide down so dramatically this year? Was it the crime emergency imposed soon after the killing spree this past summer? Was it simply the product of shifting demographics, with crime following the displacement of many of the city's poor into neighboring Prince George's County? Is it a product of new law-enforcement technologies or firearm recoveries, which have surged over the past four years? Did Williams and Ramsey stumble across a succesful and sustainable strategy to combat violent crime?
We're on the fence. While we long criticized the imposition of a crime emergency, A seems to have followed B -- more cops were forced to work longer hours for months on end, and homicides and other violent crime declined. But is it causation or correlation? Was the spike in violent crimes during the summer merely seasonal, and would homicides have fallen off with or without the emergency? We're still trying to figure it out.
Regardless, any drop in crime is a welcome one, especially when the FBI is expressing concern over nationwide increases in violent crime. Should the city hold for the next two weeks, a 35-body drop in homicides will be historic.
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"The stats beg the difficult question -- how?"
You've heard this before, and you'll hear it again: the stats did not beg the question.
Begging the question means "assuming the point you're trying to prove" not "raises an interesting question."
If you can replace "begs" with "raises" then you're not using the phrase correctly.
And yes I do think this is important Mr. Inevitable-commentor-who-says-that-he-cannot-believe-that-I-am-focusing-on-grammar-when-deeper-issues-like-crime-and-death-are-being-discussed.
Cultural (Little kid one to little kid two: "yo mom a crackhead"
Demographic (Displacement of many of the most-stressed households)
It's interesting when some indie rock dude says something bad about dc people come out of the woodwork, but whenever there is positive crime news you get little or no comments....
How? I think the answer is simple...less murders!
"The news is sure to be gold to Williams, who is looking to cement something resembling a positive legacy in his final days in office." You have got to be kidding me with this line. Williams' legacy will be positive for a number of reasons. The city is on better financial footing than when he took office. City bonds are now desired by investors instead of being considered junk bonds as they were in Mayor Barry's days. DC has a baseball team and a new stadium on the way to revitalize an entire section of the city. The population is increasing. Neighborhoods that families would not have dared moved into before he took office are now populated by responsible citizens who take care of their communities and provide the city with a future. Williams should get all or partial credit for these accomplishments for simply having been an effective and competent leader as opposed to the man he replaced who can't even keep track of his overcoat. And spare me the trust-fund baby, white liberal guilt rhetoric of neighborhoods losing their "flava" and "Chocolate City" turning into "Vanilla Village". This city is better than it has been for years thanks to Anthony Williams.
Stone - Many of us just can't get excited about fewer murders when we are still talking about a lot of people being killed in this city anually. Another one was killed near Shaw yesterday that I am sure is not in these numbers.
This is a relatively small city (population count) with really big problems that no amount of policing will change (poverty, drugs, etc).
So, let's see. We have 1- better economics, 2- a new stadium (the actual effect of which is yet unknown) and 3- a resurgent middle class. Okay, I can credit williams for being the right man at the right moment on 1 and 3, and THE MAN on 2.
I'll credit the mid-90's congress as being THE MAN on 1 and 3.
Police presence has certainly increased, but I don't believe that it's really changed much. Has anyone taken a look at the numbers of people who've been locked up?
Correlation does not imply causation.
While the low murder rate is good news, as a lowly paid non-prof employee who unlike most people in my position, actually wants to stay in DC long term, I can't but secretly hope for another city-burning riot or crack epedimic. Its the only way I'll EVER be able to afford property in this city thanks to all the yuppie scum who have been speculating on real estate for the past 5+ years.
I remember a time when everybody (including the Mayor-Elect) were dumping on Chief Ramsey because there was a spike in the violent crime rate. That spike was preceeded by a steady decline, and it was followed by a decline as well. No matter, these people claimed, Chief Ramsey is responsible for the police force and therefore deserves criticism. To these people -- including the Mayor-Elect -- correlation did indeed imply causation. I thought they were wrong at the time, though I thought Ramsey was a good chief. I'm wondering if these critics -- including the Mayor-Elect -- continue to believe that correlation implies causation, or are they taking an about-face?
While the low murder rate is good news, as a lowly paid non-prof employee who unlike most people in my position, actually wants to stay in DC long term, I can't but secretly hope for another city-burning riot or crack epedimic. Its the only way I'll EVER be able to afford property in this city thanks to all the yuppie scum who have been speculating on real estate for the past 5+ years.
ww, only 156 slayings (so far). Joy! Let's celebrate!. Canada has cities like Toronto with a population about 6 times that of DC and far fewer murders. Why do Americans like to kill each other so much?
Unfortunately, DC may still have the Murder Capital title locked up if you're going by homicide rate. My math could be off, but with 572,000 residents, that puts DC's murder rate this year at 28 per 100,000 residents, higher than any of the major cities on this chart ...
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/16243350.htm
But considering murder is up in most cities this year, yet another sharp drop in DC is impressive. I'd give credit to the crime emergency. More officers on the streets generally translates to a lower crime rate.
yeah, ONLY 156. Americans are killing machines.
Anon O' Mouse:
If you're looking for affordable crack-housing, our friendly neighbors in Ward 7 and 8 have assloads of it.
If you're looking for desirable (and safe) housing in DC (including the afore-mentioned wards), you're not much worse off than 5+ years ago. It's the investment of the yuppie scum that have made much of DC livable (Barracks Row, U Street, 14th Street, etc.)
Noone should be secretly hoping for any more city-burning riots or crack epedimics just for the sake of lowering property values. DC does not need any more instability such as the aformentioned. There are better ways to go about this.
More current citizens need to be more involved in the upkeep and future revitalization of the city. Take what being an American stands for. Don't wait for your neighbour to take action. You take action. Get some certifications, start a business, seek creative and legal money-making ventures, become involved in your neighbourhood association. Be the first to move in and renovate a house or property in a not-so-hot area, be a pioneer. I firmly believe there is space for many classes of people in DC.
If you don't believe that DC wants you to stay here, take a look at the numerous incentives that you could qualify for from the DC Housing Authority and all the business credits and such for small business owners. THERE ARE WAYS TO COMFORTABLY LIVE IN DC. If you are not sure, try me. There are around 40 DC neighbourhoods. Adams Morgan and Dupont Circle represent 2 OUT OF THEM. THERE ARE 38 MORE. Go to the Washington DC Economic Partnership office located at 14th & F Sts NW. They have glossy write-ups of every single neighbourhood in DC.
Crime in DC is on the decrease. DC is moving in the right direction. There will come the day when DC WILL HAVE LESS THAN 100 MURDERS PER YEAR. This will happen very soon.
Corrrection.
The Washington DC Economic Partnership is located at 15th F Sts NW. Right on the corner.
Rate as a function of killings per population size is a good metric. I'd also argue killings per unit of geographic area would be useful.
Reid, interesting point, I'd never heard that, and I do use "begs the question" in the "the question should be raised" sense. Wikipedia says "Today, the phrase is also frequently seen in a different usage with the meaning "raise the question". In academic contexts this use is rare and widely regarded as incorrect, but it has nevertheless become very common in the news media."
I'm from Canada, and, regarding a previous post, it's true. I've lived here for 5 years now and I'm astonished at how violent criminals in America can be. Sure, we have crime in Canada and even some murders. But as the previous post said, even our big cities barely have any murders. It amazes me and facinates me as to why certain elements in America want to kill another person over drugs or $60 at a 7-11. Why is that?
Its the only way I'll EVER be able to afford property in this city thanks to all the yuppie scum who have been speculating on real estate for the past 5+ years.
It's not real estate speculation if the value is real. Having bought a few years ago, I feel for you...
-Yuppie Scum
"Today, the phrase is also frequently seen in a different usage with the meaning "raise the question". In academic contexts this use is rare and widely regarded as incorrect, but it has nevertheless become very common in the news media."
Oh, sweet Jesus. "See lot's a other people don't know nothin' too!"
Hey tanner:
I was just in DC for many weeks. As a matter of fact, I just left DC yesterday. I live in Germany. The big cities in Europe don't have the crime that the big cities in the US have.
You ask, "why is that?"
Here is a start.
It may be a spirituality problem. As I walked the streets of DC while I was there, you can just look on the faces of some people and just see the anger, resentment, and disrespect. You can feel it. I am sure that I am not the only one that detects this. A lot of people just have bad spirituality. No hope and no sense of respect for themselves, let alone anyone else. I was walking near the Verizon Center one day. I walked past a guy who really looked like he was on drugs. He asked me and my partner for money. We said no. He then wanted to fight me because of it. I just walked away. But, this is how innocent people get killed here. People with absolutely no dignity or self respect. Pulling out guns and hurting people without provocation.
Bad spirituality may be a reason. You can see it on people's faces. You can feel as you walk by.
Bad Spirituality? So they just need to find baby Jesus and everything is alright?
It couldn't be because of the astronomical size of our minority rates. That would be racist to think.
Don't confuse spirituality with religion. They are two different things.
I am not religious, but I think I have a good spirit. And, that means that I am in touch with my inner self. I am interested in how I can keep myself at peace, internally and externally. And, that does not take religion to accomplish.
And, yes, if you really want to know, some people just have a bad spirit. You can see it. You can feel it.
floss-boy, so are you saying minorities are more prone to mudering people? Please elaborate
So Yoga classes for the masses? How about some re-education camps? Free flowers to random people on the streets? Prozac in the water supply? Bob Marley played throughout the city?
How do you propose people to get their, "spirituality?"
Nonsense. There are planty of places that have a higher % of minorities and far fewer murders - so that theory is bunk. And if you say "poverty" - another too-easy answer - there are plenty of places around the US and the world with more people in poverty and lower economic standards than DC where murder rates are much lower. So both of those answers are bunk. I think its a facinating quesiton too - why do Americans murder so much more than most other nations?
Tanner-boy, low income areas in large population centers are predominately minority based within America. Low income areas within large population centers= high crime rates.
dental floss, there are suburbs of Paris that are almost all minority and low income and have barely a murder rate. Yes, it may be a bit higher than rich areas of Paris, but overall, compared to the safest big cities in America, foreign murder rates dont even come close to American ones. So, again, the question is, why are American murder rates so high compared to other countries? We are unique that way, there's no denying the numbers.
I dont have an answer, but its not minorities or poverty, as my previous post described. Those two answers are debunked easily. Others will say easy access to guns. Bull. We have far more stabbing murders, chokings, etc than any other western country. Take American guns away and they'll kill in other ways. They just seem to want to kill more. I'd like to hear other peoples opinions as to why.
How do you propose people to get their, "spirituality?"
Better parenting would be a start. Our youth need to understand that they should respect themselves as well as others. Also, people need to learn at a young age not to destroy other people's property. Actually, they need to learn how and why to not destroy their own property. Also better spirituality means having peace within themselves. I am sure their are many that do not.
Those thngs would help.
And, I would be against prozac in the water supply. But, free flowers to random people on the street would be cute.
The big cities in Europe don't have the crime that the big cities in the US have.
As Harry Lime said in The Third Man:
1) "The news is sure to be gold to Williams, who is looking to cement something resembling a positive legacy in his final days in office."
Pretty much everything Logan said and then some. DC is as good as it used to be or better than it was under any other mayor using any benchmark (well, except musical). The city's financial status, quality of city services, safety, crime rate, people actually WANTING to live here, etc... I attribute most of it to Williams. I also give him credit for the Bullets no longer sucking again and would like to note that the Redskins went in the crapper after moving to Raljohn- not a coincidence.
2) I don't know where to access the stats, but I'm sure there are other ways to measure how much better the police are now compared back with the "city under siege" 80s- call response time and crime closure rates (specifically homicides) for starters. From personal experience cops now are more responsive and professional than they used to be. Plus they don't seem to have the scandals they used to (stolen police guns wind up back on street) or the problems that PG County or Fairfax seem to have.
3) Just say "The stats beg one to ask the difficult question -- how?" and avoid the whole silly debate.
4) Please move the "minorities commit more murders" "debate" to usenet.
The reason behind the huge drop in homicides (497 in 1993 to 157 plus or minus in 2006) in DC is pretty simple -- the crack/PCP trade did what the police couldn't do, that is, eliminate criminals with ruthless efficiency. This basic fact coupled with rapidly changing demos and a booming economy has more than halved all types of crime in the District since the early-mid 90s.
The posts compairing DC to Canada and Europe are unjust -- while homicide is a terrible offense, it is far less common everywhere than assault, rape, robbery, etc. Furthermore, I think it is absurd to compare the District to Metro Toronto (or any other metro region or state); Metro DC is a tad larger than Metro Toronto (w/out including Baltimore) and I would imagine that the overall crime rate in the two areas is rather similar (though I am sure the DC area still has more homicides). What's more, while murders are fairly rare in Europe the violent crime rate in areas like the slums of Paris, Amsterdam, London, etc. is actually higher than in many US cities. The bottom line is that we have far more to fear from the almighty car (regardless of geography) than the dreaded gun (knife, crowbar, chainsaw, anthrax, etc.).
Yeah, what Logan and Mojotron 3000 said. It's patently incorrect to state that the Mayor is looking to "cement something resembling a positive legacy in his final days." It's irresponsible and lazy.
If you were here during even during the latest Barry administration, you'd know that the city is in a much better condition as a result of Williams' leadership. I moved here in the early 90s. There was a time when the garbage wasn't collected and the streets weren't plowed because the city was bankrupt. I was afraid of falling into the potholes and never being heard from again. I wouldn't walk down your little hipster mecca of 14th street at night. Part of Williams' positive legacy is that city services have improved, our financial standing is strong, and the hipsters can feel safe in their faux vintage t-shirts and sneakers while they troll 14th street.
"I can't but secretly hope for another city-burning riot or crack epedimic."
Anon O' Mouse, that's a responsible statement! Another reason all those conditions mentioned above have improved is because the "yuppie scum" moved to certain neighborhoods when no one wanted to live there, invested in them, fixed up their properties, and made the areas nice places to live. There are still areas with affordable housing, they just not be the ultra-hip neighborhood you feel you deserve to live in. Guess what, Columbia Heights, Mount Pleasant and even Dupont, and Adams Morgan were once just like that, until the "speculators" moved in and ruined the neighborhoods by improving them. Hell, 12 years ago, my then roommates and I lived in an awesome 2500 square food house in Adams Morgan that I could have bought for less than $220,000. I'm still kicking myself for passing on that.
Take some of the suggestions that Octavio mentioned, maybe get a second job to save some money, and stop wishing for bad things to happen good people.
tim, sorry but you're wrong. Toronto is way bigger than DC (look it up - http://www.toronto.ca/toronto_facts/diversity.htm) - 2.5 million in the city (compared to DC's 500,000). I'm comparing cities. That's makes Toronto FIVE TIMES the size of DC by population in the city. In 2005 Toronto had 78 murders, and that was a pretty big increase. Just 78.
You do the math - Toronto has five times the population of DC - and half the murders. At the rate DC goes, if DC had 2.48 million people it would have 750 murders (approx 150 x 5), and I'm cheating a little on the math in DC's favor. You brought up violent crime etc. Fine other cities around the world have it. But I'm talking murders.
Again, I ask, why do people in the US murder so much? The numbers are outragous. Any answers?
Tim, Toronto is a much larger city than DC. I think it has had around 70 murders this year. A previous post said 78 in 2005. I'm from Canada, believe me, Toronto dwarfs DC as far as population in the city proper. Steve's post is correct - if DC had 2.5 million w/its murder rate there would be about 750 murders, compared to Toronto's 78. It is alarming when you look at it. The horrendous murder rates are a uniquely American thing.
Ironically, today has been one of the most violence-infused days I've had since I've moved here. A shooting on the block where I work and another on the block where I go to church.
Tanner and Steve
Not that I care that much BUT Toronto had a comparable population to the District (that is city to city) until quite recently. Ontario and Ottawa changed the governmental structure of Toronto in the late 1990s (or just after 2000) to create a regional government (not unlike Greater London). In other words the core city which used to be roughly 60 Sq. miles (like DC) w/ a population of roughly 600,000 (again like DC) grew many fold to cover other nearby urbanized areas. Not unlike if DC were to become a regional political entity including say all of the land inside the beltway (which again would include roughly 2.5 million -- pretty similar, eh?). Your key point, however, is fair -- Toronto (regardless of political/geographic boundaries) has fewer homicides. Though, remember places like Montgomery County and Fairfax County (both with populations over 1 million) have fewer than 10-15 homicides a year. So I stand by my larger point, but for homicides (which as the article and other posts make clear are declining at a healthy clip) the Greater DC area is not absurdly dangerous by any means.
Again, I ask, why do people in the US murder so much? The numbers are outragous. Any answers?
Um, because we hate eachother? That, and since our economy is based on instant gratification, it's that much easier to kill people, either deliberately or inadvertently. What's our current highway death toll? I'm pretty sure it makes the violent crime death rate look pretty small.
A more intriguing question is why does Japan have the lowest violent crime rate, yet one of the highest suicide rates? And when will this export become the norm in the USA?
What Otavio and Monkeyrotica said.
Forget the stupid notion that pacifist Swiss invented the cuckoo clock- it was invented by the Germans.
Why do Americans like to kill each other so much?
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Because rebelliousness is taught to us at an early age and the cultural havoc that slavery waged is still at play throughout our entire country. Note that these same violent attitudes are spiking in Canada which the RCMP complains about as the American exportation of gun violence. More like the exporting of Meth into rural Canada, but whatever.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20061218.DRUGS18/TPStory/?query=gun+violence
The same boundless cultural energy has made the good and bad parts of the US and I have no doubt that we cannot lessen the bad without also lessening the good. A less-energized rural America will produce less meth addicts and gun abusers, but fewer nobel winners. We promised our kids the world, a lot of us took the world and own the world, and the people who didn't or can't are frustrated. The same loser you know from high school still living at mom's house in the suburbs is the same kind of loser hanging out on the corner in DC. I've talked to them both and their outlooks (and love of Madden on the Playstation) are more similar than their City/suburbs dynamics might seem.
Don
You do the math - Toronto has five times the population of DC - and half the murders.
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Toronto includes suburban areas incorporated into the city. To accurately compare DC to other cities you have to include the suburbs those cities absorbed (LA, Chicago, Greater NYC have all taken over suburbs like Queens, Hollywood, etc). People in San Francisco do this all the time, they can't expand and Oakland became sort of a de facto "tough area" for people to move into- Oakland is a separate city in name only, otherwise it's just the rough blue collar area of San Fran. My gist is that you cannot compare DC to Toronto for LOTS of reasons and THAT'S why these comparisons always make people say, "If Budapest can do it, why not us?" There is no answer because they aren't close enough to make a connection.
Let me rephrase this, comparing cities outside the US and cities inside the US for violence without serious sociological study is meaningless wankery. It's like comparing Pit Bulls and Dachsunds and asking, why can't the pit bulls be peaceful like dachsunds, the dachsunds must be doing something right. No, the dachsunds have their talents and the pit bulls theirs. I have a friend who just moved to Australia. Australians get into bar fights in numbers so much worse than DC he was appalled. They drink themselves into stupors and are openly racist to middle easterners and openly spout white supremacist views that would NEVER be tolerated in the US. Another friend moved to Italy. He said the Italians all look and dress great and have fantastic style, but he can't get anyone at his company to do any real work and take 2 hours lunches where they sit at cafes and chat/argue for so long he's bored senseless. From what he told me, his friends won't kill anyone any more than they'll start their own company, move to a new city away from their parents, or invent a new product- all things that we take for granted in the US. I've been to Canada and the Canadians I met are both laid back and unwilling to take total responsibility for themselves and very willing to demonize the US. They take lots of credit for the most mundane activities. They have a few French Africans in Toronto and a few Asians in Vancouver and think they're a diverse people. It makes me laugh! They have this show where they will ask an American teenager about Prime Minister Mulroney on the street and then mock him because he answered the confusing question without realizing that Mulroney hasn't been in office for the last 10 years- total cultural egocentrism! Every culture has its problems and it's positives.
Don - irregardless of how Toronto's population is calculated - they still had 78 murders for a group of people (call it a city or not) that emcompasses 2.5 million. We only wish we could have a city area with low number like that. Your argument doesn't make sense as far as defeding DC's rate (if you were even trying) when you said "To accurately compare DC to other cities you have to include the suburbs those cities absorbed ". If we included more areas in the DC numbers (surrounding counties), the murder total would be even higher, although the rate per 100,000 would drop. But DC's total of 150 for the city alone already blows the Toronto metro area of 78 out of the water.
And all the cultural things you listed about the Aussies in barfights etc - so what. Maybe true. I'm talking about PEOPLE KILLING PEOPLE! I'll take a barfight over that anyday. I'm not asking the thread why the Aussies get in more barfights or why the canadians take credit for things, I'm asking why Americans murder more often. Yes, cultures are different, but all the western cultures you listed are based on Judeo-christian values and law. We came from them, and are very young as a culture. But we murder WAY MORE.
Don your first port about rebelliousness to me makes the most sense. You put it in better words than I could, but I've thought along those lines. I say that America has the "What-did-you-say-about-my-Mother" culture. People get killed at hip-hop shows for saying something bad about some dead rapper. It's insane. And make no mistake, our pop culture glorifies it.
it's regardless (without regard) or irrespective (without respect to)
probably wouldn't matter, but it was your first word..
"probably wouldn't matter, but it was your first word.."
You meant to say "It probably doesn't matter, but it was your first word"
God that even felt weird. Do you do this all the time?
jeez, get a life grammer boy....
Americans still have too much Wild West in them. Pull out a gun and shoot the ba%#tard!! We need a few hundred more years to civilize and lose that. Funny comment above - American's are polite and are appalled by barfights. But killing - we do that in record numbers. At least we're polite about it.
And Hollywood has an entire industry dedicated to making shootings etc look as realistic as possible on film. Showing a bullet entering a body, the blood spurting. Nice. We are weird in many ways
yes, the wild west attitude/legacy is glorified in hollywood and probably has something to do with our murderous tendencies. but it's far more complex than that.
What was it that H Rap Brown said...
Middle and Upper Middle class socialization propogates gentility and civilized resolution of conflict. There are homicides amongst the rich in East Hampton, New York. However I would take my chances walking down Newtown Lane at night over walking thru "Soufeast, DC" anyday. The lower income ghetto social matrix produces and re-produces all manner of anti-social outrageous behaviour contrary to aesthetic city living- from littering, beating your kids on the street, loud displays of hostile profanity and of course homicide. People crow about setting aside low income "reservations" but in TRUTH you are only subsidizing youths like in the Citypaper article who resent and throw rocks at YUPPIE/HIPSTER gentrifiers. Another example of an entrenched resistance to socialization at that level of society.
Do any of you guys have a clue at how many murders there are in South Africa or Latin American cities/countries??
Just curious.