DCist: Since the Lerner/Kasten team took over the team, every move is justified as part of "The Plan," a media catch-all for Kasten's strategy to rebuild the scouting, player development, and roster depth throughout the organization. What sort of indicators will let fans know if The Plan is working? How soon can we hope for Plan success to translate into Major League wins?

Nats Farm Authority: I laugh when I read references to "The Plan" because honestly it's not anything revolutionary to build a team from the ground up. That concept has been around for a long time. What "The Plan" really offers more than anything else is a built-in excuse for poor performance at the major league level.

But to answer your question, an example of when we'll know it's working is when the Nationals won't have to assemble a rotation by cattle call. An easy indicator that things are working is when the casual fan reads about other teams actually scouting the Nationals farm system for players. It's going to take some time. Kasten's claim of a couple of years is pretty aggressive. I'd say things are more likely to show dramatic improvement (i.e. top 10 minor league organization) in four or five years.

Federal Baseball: I agree that "The Plan" is really more rhetoric than blueprint. And while I don't think Kasten or anyone in the front office coined the exact phrase, they've seemed to indulge its use and the connotations that go with it. After the disorder MLB wrought, the fans want order. That's what a plan implies.

I guess you could look at minor league records, except I don't know if or how they correlate with player development, especially in the higher levels of the minors. You could look at individual awards like league player of the year, except Kory Casto has earned honors everywhere he's been and still isn't seen as a real top prospect in part because he's always been a shade old for his levels as he's progressed up the chain. I guess the best things to do are to follow the Nats affiliates closely, look if their players start getting rated highly by "Baseball America" compared to other organizations' players, and most of all be realistic about this.

The Nats have acquired lots of younger guys since last season and totally flipped their top prospects list. But it would be foolish to look at those guys and say him, him, and him are integral parts of "The Plan." Prospects often fail, and that's why you need lots of good ones. I'd say it's three to four years before the minors are impactful and self-sustaining, which would be the biggest contribution of "The Plan."

Panorama by Flickr user randomduck.

Capitol Punishment: Nats fans will need to be mindful of that rhetoric, too. Matt Chico, a rookie pitcher who came over for Livan Hernandez last year, is likely to make the rotation. If he succeeds, it isn't because of the owners' mastery of the minor leagues. That's a trade that plenty of stupid teams might've made, and Chico's getting a shot because there isn't anyone better.

I'm with the other guys. You might see the first fruits of the new regime popping up in three years or so, if the top draft picks progress quickly (the way Zimmerman did). But it's going to be a while before we're the Braves.

NFA: A couple of other pieces that fans should keep an eye out for is consistency from within the organization. Do the Nationals keep non-playing personnel consistent year in and year out or are they constantly reshuffling the player development/scouting/minor league coaching areas? Also, there has to be some sign that they are actually developing players and not just stumbling into good fortune with random guys. The Braves, as an example, always seemed to have players constantly appearing on the immediate horizon when holes opened up.

DCist: So, with the Calvary a few years away, we'll go to battle with the guys we have. Does anyone give us reason to be excited this year? On the current roster, is there an immediate impact rookie (a la Zimmerman) or a primed-for-career-year veteran like Esteban Loaiza in '05?

CP: Reasons to be excited... umm... umm... The tickets are cheap!

The rookie question touches on some of the answers to the last question. The only rookie who really has a shot is pitcher Matt Chico, but he doesn't nearly have the pedigree that Zimmerman did. Kory Casto opened some eyes in spring training, but he doesn't have a spot on the team.

The guy to watch, really, is Chris Snelling, the left fielder they got from the Mariners for Jose Vidro's carcass. He's hit everywhere he's gone, but he's mostly gone to the disabled list. If he stays healthy...

NFA: The rookie to keep an eye out for is Zech Zinicola, a 6th round pick in the 2006 draft. If the Nats do move Cordero and/or Rauch, Zinicola could become the replacement in a setup or closer role.

FB: There are a couple veterans, Dmitri Young and Ronnie Belliard, who could reemerge, though Belliard doesn't have a regular role. The newly acquired pitchers are so down-on-their-luck they don't even compare to Loaiza. I guess keep an eye on Jerome Williams, who is still young enough to contribute down the road if he turns things around.

DCist: Though it looks like Nook Logan's injury will extend his regular playing time a few more weeks, has Ryan Church's poor spring driven the final nail into the coffin of his career with the Nats?

FB: Like Rev. Lovejoy once said, "Short answer: 'Yes, with an if.' Long answer: 'No, with a but.'" I guess you're looking for the short answer, so yes with an if. That is, if Chris Snelling stays healthy and productive; if Nook Logan can hit at all; if Kory Casto's development doesn't stall in Columbus. The Nats have been kind of neither here nor there with Church, jerking him up and down, in and out of the minors. He's hit when he's been given the opportunity, and he carries a cheap price tag. Perfect for "The Plan" in that way. On the other hand, he's not really a young player anymore, there have been vague criticisms about his mental toughness, and his window has narrowed considerably. (Then again, after hearing of Logan's injury over the weekend, I suppose the answer is "No, with a groin.")

CP: I think the ideal circumstance (from the Nat's perspective) is three hot months of performance so they can trade him. Other teams will value him if he's hitting because he's cheap. The Nats could gain a prospect or two and free a spot for Chris Snelling, assuming Kory Casto holds on to the LF job.

DCist: The initial rotation looks more or less set with something like Patterson - Hill - Chico - Simontacchi - Williams. That's 62 career wins combined. Are we looking at a summer of "biblical drubbings" (Boz, 3/7), or is there an obvious case "for a better rotation in '07" (Boz, 2/22)?

NFA: Honestly, I really don't see it being as bad as some "experts" are saying. Will there be ugly games? Sure, but I'll remind everyone that we got the "honor" of watching Ramon Ortiz, Tony Armas, Pedro Astacio, etc. throw batting practice last year. The Nationals should be able to cobble together a rotation that should challenge the 2006 one (that can be read as both a positive and a negative).

CP: I'm with Brian. It can be a truly terrible rotation without being all that much worse than last year's. Of the five guys who started the most games last year, only one (Mike O'Connor, who's injured) allowed fewer than 5 runs per game.

The defense looks like it might be a bit better this year, which will help the pitchers out.

FB: It would be hard to be much worse than last year's. The Nats could use a guy like Ortiz who could at least be counted on to remain healthy for 190 innings, but at the end of the day, does it really matter?

CP: "but at the end of the day, does it really matter? " -- That's the '07 version of "THE PLAN!" in a nutshell.

DCist: What's the rosiest, best-case scenario for the Nats in '07?

FB: Mass realignment of the other teams from the NL East?

Failing that, then I'd say steady improvement as the talent sorts itself out, younger pitchers like Chico and Shawn Hill developing, a little luck and/or magic, and a half-season of hot baseball like in '05.

DCist: And the cover-your-eyes awful scenario?

NFA: Nick Johnson is out for the entire season (that seems pretty likely, in my opinion), Ryan Zimmerman suffers the sophomore slump, and the Nationals ride a conga line of ineffective SPs to a 105-110 loss season.

DCist: But you'll still find yourself watching the 9th inning of a 11-6 bloodletting because...

CP: The chili nachos rock, and obviously I'm a bit deranged by the amount of time I spend on this crapbag team.

FB: ... and the other team might disqualify itself somehow!

Seriously, because it's baseball, beautiful baseball, being played at its highest level... sorta.

DCist: Thanks, guys. It sure helps to be chatting about baseball when I look out the window and wonder what the christ I'm doing spending today in front of a computer.

See you at RFK...