August 31, 2007
Let the Battle Begin in Virginia
Even though the U.S. Senate is known as the best retirement home in America -- great healthcare, plenty of daily activities, and people continue to pay attention to you for some reason -- Virginia Sen. John Warner announced today that come next year, he's out. And while his announcement is big news, even bigger is the fight that's about to come to replace him.
Consider the circumstances. The commonwealth is a political toss-up these days. Sure, Republicans dominate Richmond, but folks looking to run for statewide office are more and more forced to appeal to the more liberal north, where both votes and money have congregated over the years. Even without the "macaca moment," it wasn't a huge surprise that Sen. Jim Webb defeated incumbent George Allen with the help of his Northern Virginia base.
On the Democratic side, former Governor Mark Warner could easily make another run for the seat, given his experience and popularity -- things have changed plenty since his loss to John Warner in 1996. On the Republican side, well, things get complicated. Rep. Tom Davis has indicated he might run for the seat, as has former Governor Jim Gilmore. And here you have the fight for the two Virginia's. Davis may be a Republican, but he's a moderate one representing two Northern Virginia counties. Gilmore, on the other hand, has all the conservative credentials needed to win everywhere else. Should both run, we'll see some interesting pandering as Davis tries to prove he's a real conservative and Gilmore attempts to seem just a little more liberal.
And though it's ridiculously early to make predictions, this is how we see things playing out. Davis jumps in early and spends most of 2008 on mock-up hunting trips and talking about how gay marriage is destroying America, killing puppies and fueling the Iraqi insurgency. In the meantime, Gilmore will campaign on a promise to widen I-66 to 12 lanes in each direction and eat at as many Peruvian places as it takes to convince Virginia's growing Hispanic population that he's one of them. Of course, Mark Warner will raise no money and simply run on name recognition, easily getting votes from Democrats while winning votes from Republicans who think he's the older Warner.
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the tireless leftest schilling in your political posts is growing well, tiresome. Furthermore, you're not very good at political analysis and this isn't a political blog. Stick to the local stories. Thats why a lot of us read this.
First off, this is local. Many of DCist's readers live in Virginia, so this is of value to them. Second, this has nothing to do with being left or being right. I'm poking fun at what is sure to be an interesting and amusing race. Finally, what's your analysis of the upcoming race?
It should be interesting. I think it's Warner(D)'s to lose, but you're spot on about the Davis mock-hunting trips and Gilmores sure-to-be new-found love of Peruvian chicken.
Gilmore will campaign on a promise to widen I-66 to 12 lanes in each direction and eat at as many Peruvian places as it takes to convince Virginia's growing Hispanic population that he's one of them.
Yes, he's got to court all those Hispanic voters who'll show up for the GOP primary.
Dems better get a little more anti-illegal immigration if they have any hope at Warner's seat.
I've got a healthy respect for Tom Davis, but he's not exactly a valuable commodity outside of NoVA. If he runs, (Mark) Warner will handily take all the jurisdictions that went for Webb & Kaine, plus a few more. As RJ implied--the wedge issue du jour is immigration. If Tom Davis plays up the anti-immigrant angle, I could see him peeling away a few immigrant-heavy exurban districts from Mark Warner. I'm not sure it would be enough for him to win statewide, but it would make it a tougher fight for Warner.
Is Mark Warner going to run? In the past, it has seemed that he wants to wait again until the next governor's election - he seemed to really like that role. Not sure who else is on the D's bench. I remember Moran (the state delegate from Alexandria not the Congressman) saying that he was considering running for governor the next time around. So he may give it a shot.
And for the Republicans, Tom Davis could be a great Senator but I can't see him winning a statewide convention, has a better shot at a primary. But even that may be very difficult with the downstate Republicans. And if the GOP does that, I think it may difficult for them to win in the 2008 environment (of course a weak New England or equally stereotypical liberal Democrat might help running for President).