Light in August
Former Editor-in-Chief Ryan Avent writes a weekly column about neighborhood and development issues.
For much of the past year, this column has taken a hard look at many aspects of District life, from crime and schools, to transportation planning and development, to the uneven distribution of growth in the city, and found them wanting. It’s never difficult to be critical of the way things are done in the District, and yet there are obviously many satisfied Washingtonians, myself among them, who are happy to call this place home. This week, as the city continues to enjoy its August downtime, I think it’s a fine time to remember how good things are in D.C. Now is clearly no time for us to rest on our laurels, but it’s important to recall just how far the District has come.
Never in recent memory has the city been this safe. Residents remain rightly concerned about occasional flare-ups and a homicide rate that is still well above where it should be, but both the trends and the absolute numbers are clear. Last year, Washington recorded its lowest homicide total in decades, and the city is on pace to come in below that this year. The homicide count for the past 365 days is 15 percent below that for the 365 that came before, and west of the Anacostia River the decline is 30 percent. While some categories of crime did tick up last year, overall trends remain positive, and great strides have been made in the 1st and 3rd Police Districts, fast growing areas of the city that gave the police headaches last year but which have shown great progress this year. Many communities continue to cry out for more police attention, complaining loudly when outbreaks do not generate enough police response. That, in itself, is a good thing, showing not that criminal activity is increasing, but that community involvement and public demands for police accountability are on an upswing across a broadening swath of the city.
That broadening is itself evidence of the rapid growth the city has recently enjoyed. Census figures show steady, moderate increases in Washington’s population, but beneath the total a different dynamic is clear. West of the Anacostia River, and particularly in the dense center of the District, population is booming. That area has experienced a net annual gain of between 5,000 and 7,000 people in recent years, resulting in a remaking of many neighborhoods. While new buildings continue to go up on underused lots across the city, vacant and deteriorating properties have been patched up and occupied. The growth in new and improved residential property has been rooted in strong fundamentals, allowing the city to weather the housing market downturn far better than other major metropolitan areas. Home sales and prices in the District have begun to increase relative to last year’s numbers; even condo sales are up as inventory declines. That is due in part to a change in developer strategy on some projects, shifting condo units into rentals, but such a shift is possible and profitable because the local rental market has also remained strong.
Photo by elle decouvre.
The growth in population and the relative steadiness of the housing market are rooted in the continued strength of the local economy. The District remains the largest center of employment in the Washington region, which has itself been at or near the top of the rankings in annual job creation. The District and inner suburbs boast an unemployment rate of only 3.3 percent, well below the national average, and while the District’s rate sits at 5.7 percent, that is down from 6.1 percent a year ago, and is one of the lowest rates the city has had in the past ten years. D.C. adds about 8,000 jobs a year, a remarkable and remarkably consistent performance, especially considering that average hourly compensation in the city is above, and often well above, the national average for most professions, from lawyers to cashiers.
Recent economic growth and a new sense of fiscal prudence relative to the past has meant a steadily improving balance sheet for the city. Last year, the District posted its tenth consecutive balanced budget, a feat which has prompted all three major credit rating agencies to rate city bonds as investment grade, saving D.C. millions in loan costs. A better balance sheet has allowed the city to invest in itself and improve services for residents. The District is spending to improve streetscapes across the city and create new parks and trails. It’s laying the groundwork for a streetcar system that will improve mobility and bring transit to new neighborhoods. It’s spending $2.3 billion to modernize school facilities. While the District’s public school system has been perhaps the most stubborn problem for the city, there are signs that that, too, may be on the road to improvement. DCPS’ new leadership begins its job with student performance numbers low—but better than they were the year before.
But the city cannot, of course, be captured by numbers alone. The real measure of the city's success is its new creative energy. In the past few years, the growth in new restaurants and bars, theater companies, music venues, shops, and art galleries (and blogs to cover them all), has been extraordinary.
Can we do better as a city? Absolutely. But perspective is important. Healthy criticism requires a recognition of the great progress that has been made. Next week, I'll be back to telling District leaders what they ought to be doing with their time and money. For now, I'm happy to reflect on the good things.