February 13, 2008
Morning Roundup: Post Primary Edition
Good morning, Washington. As you've no doubt heard, last night John McCain and Barack Obama took home victories in all three area primaries. The candidates are now off to the next set of primary states. Unfortunately, they didn't take the weather with them. Today may not be as icy as yesterday, but it'll be rainier, thereby maintaining the principle of conservation of awfulness.
Kaine Outlines Cuts: Faced with a slowing economy, Virginia Governor Tim Kaine has proposed another set of belt-tightening budgetary measures, as WJLA details. The proposal doesn't include any tax increases, but would decrease planned raises for teachers, slow Medicaid increases and withdraw additional money from the state's rainy day fund.
Edwards Ousts Wynn: Senator Obama's win in Maryland last night wasn't the state's only Democratic contest with national significance. Donna Edwards defeated eight-term congressman Al Wynn, as the Post reports. Unseating Wynn had become something of an online cause celebre for progressives, many of whom viewed the congressman's ties to the energy lobby and support for President Bush's bankruptcy reform bill as being emblematic of larger problems within the Democratic party.
Briefly Noted: William & Mary president resigns rather than get fired after ideological clashes... DARE student tips off cops to family's pot dealing... Flu raging through College Park... Va. legislature passes animal welfare bills... Testimony of victim in furniture delivery shooting called into question as toxicology reveals he had cocaine in his system...
This Day In DCist: One year ago we were excited about snow (and an upcoming Unbuckled featuring These United States). Two years ago Bed Bath & Beyond was opening in Gallery Place and pandas were frolicking in the snow.
Image posted to DCist Photos by Flickr user timkelley
|
Next up for Obama (in terms of knock out win) is Texas and Ohio.
I think Texas is where he'll win it. Lots of majority black voting districts. However, Ohio could go Obama as well. Should be a fun month for those two states. Wall to wall election coverage and many Hillary and Obama ads.
this has nothing to do with anything . . . but was anyone else on the Orange line train from Virginia stopping at Farragut West at 8:06am? if you were, then you'd know that you'd "even have time to stop for a cup of coffee."
please, metro . . . don't take away our train operator announcements! they make our mornings so much better! i end up on that operator's train often, and he's so great, always amusing. thank you!
i don't know if y'all will post about this later, but holy crap was traffic yesterday evening the worst i've ever seen. it took me two hours to drive from old town to DCA and back.
He can win ohio because people are fed up with the system. Ohio has been getting its arse kicked big time economically Plus Ohio is a purplestate and that Clinton resentment bleeds over. Talk radio in Ohio is dominated by conservative hosts who trash her everyday. I think he can win Ohio contrary to what the pundits say.......
"Talk radio in Ohio is dominated by conservative hosts who trash her everyday. "
Not sure how this is different than any other state.
Did anyone get trapped in the 95/Mixing Bowl nightmare. The news this morning said traffic was at a standstill between 3pm and midnight.
Hot tip: always keep a roll of t.p. and an empty milk carton in the back seat for just such an occasion. Certainly beats having to befoul your Brookstone Heated Coffee Mug.
The great story here for anybody willing to find it and write about it and explain it is this vast left-wing conspiracy that has been conspiring against Hillary since the day she announced for president.
MS, hate to burst your bubble on Texas, but it's also got a lot of Hispanic/Latino voters, which have gone Clinton's way by quite a bit. The state has a whole is about 36pct Hispanic/Latino vs. 12pct African-American, according to the 2000 Census. 'm not sure how that translates into Democratic party voters, but clearly you're not going to see the same levels of African-American voters as in some of the recent primaries.
Most recent poll I know of (though it is a couple of weeks old) has Clinton up 48-38 in Texas. She's up by more in Ohio polls this week.
That said, I'm not counting Obama out of anything. He's clearly got momentum on his side and is running an excellent campaign.
Certainly beats having to befoul your Brookstone Heated Coffee Mug.
Ewwwww. If I'm stuck in traffic for NINE HOURS I think I'll come up with a better place to poop than a coffee mug.
On the news this morning they were talking to drivers who were stuck in the mixing bowl clusterfark last night. My favorite was the buttoned-up, uber-professional, B&T guy who said "I had to go in a cup! Then I dumped it out the window. Sorry, man, I had to go!"
rat - The Brookstone Heated Coffee Mug is for making tinkle. Keeps the junk cozy, warm, and smelling of mocha latté. As for Number Twos, the busy DC exec on-the-go never leaves home without his Gotta-Go Attache Case and a full can of Glade.
I keep am emergency pee bottle in the car for just such an occasion, not that we do a whole lot of driving anyway. Mrs. T always made fun of me for keeping an empty bottle in the car - but last night she said it seemed like a prudent idea after all.
Maybe I'm missing something here, but if you're stuck in traffic for NINE HOURS doesn't that leave you plenty of time to leave your vehicle to attend to bodily functions?
I tend to think Texas might be a good state for Obama to take even with the conventional wisdom that Hispanics make it a Hillary state.
For instance, District 14 (Ron Paul) will most likely go for Obama. It has the most delegates out of any Texas district (8). The next one is Distict 13 (also controlled by a Republican) and that one will most likely go to Obama and it has 7 delegates to give.
District 23 (Latino majority district) but only gives Hillary 6 delegates. The other majority Latino districts will give Hillary less than that.
Basically if Obama wins the Republican districts, majority black district, and some of the swing "white" democratic districts then he'll take Texas.
Anyhow, even if Hillary wins by splitting delegates as Texas has done there will not deliver a knock out blow for either candidate.
Oh, forgot to mention that in Texas it is a proportional win on delegates.
There are 126 delegates up for grabs on March 4 and they are divided among the 31 state senate districts. Proportional win means in District 18 if Obama and Hillary both get 50% of the vote he'll get 2 delegates and she'll get 2.
After looking at the state breakdown and how the delegates are proportioned out I think we are looking at a split breaking for Obama.
rat - Some of us have to store our precious bodily fluids for insurance purposes. Geico is pretty particular about who they issue policies to nowdays.
Oh, I doubt Latinos will vote in as large of numbers as they did in CA. Traditionally they are horrible to count going to the polls. With McCain as the Republican nominee Latinos have no "fear" of either the Democrats or Republicans' nominations being for a strong immigration bill.
With that said, even with a high Hispanic turnout the way Texas awards delegates helps Obama.
If any of you know any William & Mary alumni, ask them to send you the college-community-wide email flame war from yesterday between the outgoing president and the college rector, Michael "Son-of-Colin" Powell. Pretty funny stuff.
MS: The one thing you left out of your explanation of Texas's primary system is how the number of delegates is allocated to each district. My understanding is that this is based on how many votes were cast in that district in 2004 for John Kerry. So areas with the most delegates are the most Democratic, which tend to be the cities, which tend to have more African Americans. This de-weights the Hispanic vote, again favoring Obama. That's the theory I've read, anyway.
That kid is out of the will.
All of the Democratic primaries award delegates based on vote counts. That's why no one's delivered a knockout blow just yet, though Obama's probably getting close. Basically you need a resounding margin of victory to really clean up in delegates.
That said, I'm not counting Obama out of anything. He's clearly got momentum on his side and is running an excellent campaign.
I wouldn't count him out, either, but Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania are going to be tough, tougher, and toughest, in that order. He does well when he gets to campaign, so thankfully there's a lot of time between now and March 4th for him to get his ass to Columbus and generate some enthusiasm. And I'm less concerned about the Hispanic vote in Texas than I am about blue collar Dems in Pennsylvania. Obama has been polling better much among Hispanics lately, but I know quite a few old-school Dems in central and western PA who won't even consider voting for him. He'll win Philadelphia, in other words, and he'll certainly do well in the areas near NJ. But he got creamed in eastern TN, and Hillary won pretty handily in southwestern VA, and a lot of PA is rural hill country.