Nats Update: Season's Greetings
In the past 3 seasons, the Nationals have exceeded expectations, which was mostly a function of having very low expectations. After disappointing everyone last year by not having a historically bad season, expectations are higher this year. While I can't find anyone who is willing to go out on a limb and predict that the Nationals will compete in the NL East, the Marlins' commitment to alienating their few fans should keep the Nats out of the NL East cellar. Last year the team finished with a record of 73-89. We think that 81-81 would be a good step forward, and a reasonable goal. Let's take a look at the Nats' roster and see how they can get there.
First Base: One of the most intriguing questions heading into spring training was "who is going to start at first for the Nationals?" Nick Johnson seems to be the answer. Johnson missed all of last season after breaking his leg at the end of the previous season. He has had a strong spring, and Dmitri Young has been struggling with weight and health issues. If Nick can return to form, his high batting average and on base percentage will be a great addition to the Nats lineup. That said, Johnson is unlikely to finish the season as a National. If he shows that he is healthy, and starts strong, look for Bowden to move him for prospects. The calendar still shows that Thursday, May 1 is Dmitri Young bobblehead day. Fifteen thousand dolls is a pretty firm commitment to a player, at least for this team.
Middle Infield: The Nationals are saddled with 3 average middle infielders and only two positions. It currently looks like Christian Guzman and Ronnie Belliard have secured starting positions at shortstop and 2nd respectively. Guzman is in his contract year, and nothing motivates players quite like contract negotiations. Fans may remember his .219 batting average from 2005, but he has had Lasik eye surgery since then, and started last season strong.
That leaves Felipe Lopez on the bench. After allegations of attitude problems last year, Lopez has apparently been a model player this Spring. The team will probably look to trade Lopez, but his poor numbers from last year and this spring, coupled with the $4.9 million he is going to make this year, could make that a difficult proposition. Also, Nationals infielders like to get hurt a lot, so it might make sense to keep him around.
Photo by Liliang
Third Base: After two years in the majors, the team is really looking for Ryan Zimmerman to have a breakout year this season. He will have more protection in the lineup, and more opportunities to drive in some runs. In addition, he has been focusing on his defense this spring. He will be eligible for arbitration after this season, so like Guzman, we expect a little more motivation this year. Sports Illustrated currently ranks him as the 5th best fantasy 3rd baseman, so you know he is going to have a good year.
Catcher: When President Bush throws out the opening pitch of the season, it will be to an admitted substance abuser. Paul Lo Duca will be the starting catcher for the Nats this year. He is an improvement over Brian Schneider offensively. Still, the surprising performance of last year's pitching staff was due to Schneider's ability to manage a game. It remains to be seen how Lo Duca will handle the pitching staff.
Outfield: The outfield will be much improved this year offensively. The addition of Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge puts some real power in the outfield. Austin Kearns is probably the National who is most excited to never play in RFK again. The team expects him to produce this year. His $5 million salary balloons to $9 million next year, and as one of the higher paid players on the team, it is time for him to live up to expectations.
One of the tests for Manny Acta this year will be to see who he plays in the outfield once Wily Mo Pena is healthy. After being traded to the Nats last year, Pena responded well to regular playing time. The team is also going to want to see what Dukes and Milledge can do, so juggling these three players will be a challenge.
Pitching: The bullpen will be good. The question is how often they will have to prove it. Last year the bullpen pitched the most number of innings in the league, and posted an ERA of 3.81, good for fourth in the league.
After bringing in a comical number of prospective pitchers last Spring, the team had a better idea who would be on the hill for them this year. The staff is improved from last year, but still has a long way to go. The big question mark this year is Shawn Hill. The consensus is that Hill can be a dominant pitcher if he stays healthy. After releasing John Patterson earlier this Spring, the Nationals have shown that they are not going to wait around forever for promising pitchers to get healthy.
How many wins do you like the Nats for this season? Feel free to leave your own prognostications in the comments.