Transit on Tuesday: The Statistically Depressing Edition

2008_0909_skedoutoffocus.jpgAccording to the Post, Metro finally got its on-time measuring system working in Metrobuses after 35 years.

So, that's the positive news.

The statistics uncovered, on the other hand, pretty much confirm what everyone already assumes about the buses' ability to stick to a schedule: namely, that they have no such ability. A report to be released on Thursday will show that overall, Metrobuses were on-time (defined as falling somewhere between two minutes early and seven minutes late) only 73 percent of the time in July, which is pretty terrible. Apologists will point to the fact that this figure falls on the high end of the national average for buses, the high level of traffic congestion in the metro area, and that many initiatives put into place to improve efficiency are thwarted by outside factors - like cars double parking in dedicated bus lanes.

But let's be honest: for a service that close to 450,000 people depend on daily, not being able to stick within a 9 minute window for more than one out of every four trips is utterly abysmal. We haven't even gotten to the worst of it: some routes, like the U5 and the Y5, are Metro's version of Russian roulette - you've got close to a coin flip's chance of having your bus arrive anywhere close to on time.

We'll be interested to see what the board has to say about the report come Thursday. In the meantime, what are your ideas for improving on-time Metrobus service?

In Other Disappointing News, Here's the ICC: It is just not a good day to be putting together the transit report - news out of Maryland is that the middle section of the Intercounty Connector (one of our favorite topics around here) running between Georgia Avenue and Route 29 is currently on pace to exceed its construction budget by over $100 million. Our favorite part of the Post article is when Maryland State Highway spokesperson Valerie Burnette Edgar insisted that the overrun "wasn't a big surprise" - with all due respect, the pure quantity of other, more long-term infrastructural projects (ahem, Purple Line) that the money could have gone to instead of the ICC means that a 22 percent increase in an already bloated project is, by definition, surprising. We're sure Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, who is likely going to have to cut programs to rectify a billion dollar state deficit, also finds it slightly "surprising."

So, Let Us See If We've Got This Straight: A hypothetical, if you'll indulge us. Option A: A parking lot full of vehicles that are used by numerous people, only when needed, reducing not only congestion, but also environmental wear. Option B: A parking lot full of private vehicles, all probably leaving and coming back at the same time; or alternatively, never moving, taking up increasingly valuable space. Well, 14th and You brings us a report from last Wednesday's ANC2F (Logan Circle) meeting where ANC chairman Charles Reed effectively chose Option B. Reed motioned to strip Zipcar of the right to use a parking lot at 14th and Corcoran because they "failed to follow through on a promise to landscape and 'beautify' their lot." The motion actually passed, 3-1, mind you. So, we suppose that Chairman Reed believed that a lot full of privately owned cars would somehow "beautify" the lot more effectively than Zipcar could; a representative from Zipcar eventually showed up and sanity resumed, as Reed then tabled the motion. We realize that hyperlocal politics is often times a matching of wits, and that Zipcar's space wasn't probably in too much danger - but transit-wise, we just don't get the threat, empty or not.

Community Transit Meetings Upcoming: Mark it on your calendar: the DC Neighborhood Circulation Study — a joint venture of DDOT and WMATA that encourages people who actually use transit to suggest ideas on possible improvements (i.e. this means you) — will be convening meetings in four different neighborhoods (Adams Morgan, Bellevue, Trinidad, Benning Heights) next week. Specifics can be found here. Between this and the 16th Street Metrobus study, things are on the up and up for citizen participation in transit issues.

Engines and Cabooses: Fewer passengers flying out of National and Dulles... WMATA is looking for someone to create something beautiful at Farragut West... Metro was prepared to shut down service if they needed to due to Saturday's high winds and rain - flooding did cause a temporary shutdown of the track between National Airport and Braddock Road on the Yellow Line... Frederick to spend $2.7 million on cross-town bike and pedestrian path... Looking for a parking loophole? Buy a motorcycle. You can park them for free in Metro lots... MARC experiencing slight schedule changes... Solar "taxi" made its way down H Street last week... Reason #3,651 to like public transportation: it could save you $10,000 a year.

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I really don't understand how you expect busses to be on time 100% of the time if they're STUCK IN THE SAME TRAFFIC AS THE CARS. All the more reason to have streetcar lines that have priority and can switch cross street lights from red to green.

That, or bring on the crosstown skilift gondolas. Look out below! I have violent explosive diarrhea! Maybe!

Call me an apologist... but I'm OK with NOT pressuring Metrobus drivers to be on time, because they drive like psychopaths already. I was on a bus last week where the driver swerved around a stopped car at full speed in order to plow through an occupied crosswalk (on the wrong side of the road). Thankfully the pedestrian was paying attention to the flying bus and stayed out of the crosswalk (even though they had the right to cross the street).

The answer might not be getting drivers to drive faster. It might be revising bus schedules so they reflect reality.

Not pressuring them is one thing, but being sort of on time would be nice. The last dozen or so times my friend or I have used the D2 bus on a weekend it's been waaaay late. But at this point we're so used to it, it's just sad.

I think I may start advocating for an underground vacuum tube transport system some guy in Florida was pushing a few years ago when the state sought bids for high-speed rail.

I think you mean Farragut North, not Farragut West. Huge difference. Farragut West people dial like this : bleep-bloop-bloop-blawp. Farragut North people dial like this: bloop-bleep-bloop-bloop.

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I agree that it's hard - and maybe not smart - to make buses go faster. But some of them should be going slower, not faster. Bus bunching and too-early buses are part of the problem. Get supervisors out there and make the early buses wait.

it's the bikes going the speed limit that affects bus schedules.

Well, I'm usually running a little late, so I like that the buses are also usually running a little late.

Whatever, the DASH is always on time.

Actually, I have been advocating letting bus drivers go a little more nuts. Why not let your driver race other drivers to see who gets there first?

More importantly, I have been advocating the use of AT-ATs for public transportation for some time. They have that big door on the side so you can jump from your office window straight into the passenger bay and they provide the driver with a great road vision. They handle well in the snow, they come with back-up drivers....

Other advantages, in addition to crushing snow speeders underfoot and killing fancy-pants rebels, are that you can attack other AT-ATs and steal their passengers.

It makes a lot of sense. It's basically the free market at work. If you want the "people movers" to run efficiently, you need to have independent AT-AT operators.

Nice, but I think AT-ATs could be taken down by the kids throwing rocks or launching fireworks around 14th Street. Or maybe the occasional stack of logs rolling down the street.

within d.c. at least, i can get a bus from where i live to most of the places i want to go (without even having to switch lines - novel for most cities) AND it's cheaper than the metro. i don't care if the bus late since i don't own a car or care to i've adjusted my schedule so that if i need to be somewhere at a specific time i will be. y'all need to quit yer complaining about the bus drivers, too.

The answer might not be getting drivers to drive faster. It might be revising bus schedules so they reflect reality.
Ding ding ding! Correct answer!

I'd wager the rock throwers in Columbia Heights lack the basic scientific knowhow to assemble a log trap which is every Ewok's birthright.

Who am I kidding. They're dumber than a Tauntaun.

Can we at least arm the bus drivers with those spiked gloves like they had in Rollerball? At the very least it would make the H2 a more interesting ride.

flamingcissy: the problem is, reality WRT the buses has no schedule. so we might as well just rip them up. which, when you think about it, wouldn't be a terrible idea...

erahk0: is that a hillman-esque joke, or am i missing something?

good for you, petitepomme, but some of the rest of us have things called "jobs" or we go to shows that start at a designated "time" like "8 p.m." so "showing up whenever we want" just doesn't work.

A bus could go much faster - and thus be on time more often - if we did away with pesky rules prohibiting driving on sidewalks.

Not a sermon, just a thought!

monkey: and have you smelled those rock throwers? i thought they smelled bad on the outside?

but seriously, i've generally thought for the past few years that wmata just got tired of dealing with the hassle of continually revising their schedules to meet reality or continue to encourage drivers to keep to the schedule. I think they tried sweeping this one under the rug.

I've learned to just hang at the stop and have faith that a bus will show up when i need.

Let the Ewoks drive the busses. They know Endor better than any of us.

I love ewoks! They are like downs children. You know, like trig. Plus they are much better than having some dumb wookie planet.

Yeah, I said it. Dumb Wookie Planet. Bring it bishes.

You know, maybe I have a massive cock, but it seems to me we have this whole thing backwards. Why are we taking buses to our offices buildings? Maybe the buses should bring the buildings to us? eh?? eh??

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the lines are waaaaaaaaaaaaay too long. if anyone actually expects routes like the 30's (friendship heights to anacostia) or the 90's (mclean gardens to congress heights) to go that whole route cross town and still be on time they must be on crack.

You have I identified what many of us in academia and the Smithsonian Folk Life Festival as "The Crack Road." It is where east meets west, rich meets poor, crack meets pipe.

Oddly enough, NextBus was actually working this morning. I randomly checked the site as I walked out past my local bus stop and it was listing times again, including a bus that was to be at my stop in 2 minutes, and sure enough, it was there in 2 minutes. That was a pleasant surprise this morning.

Who the f*ck cares whether a bus is on schedule or not? That's a stupid goal to pursue. The only thing they should focus on is maintaining consistent headway (and shortening that whenever possible) and roll out f*cking NextBus!!!!!

Trying to stick to arbitrary schedules is futile. They'll never get to a point of being close enough to the schedule to be reliable. Just give it up and give us NextBus so that we can simply see for ourselves whether to run or take our time to the bus stop.

Nobody complains that metro rail doesn't have a schedule during rush hour (and how many even know that there's a schedule off-peak?). They only care about the frequency of the trains and having access to real-time information to help them plan their trip.

As someone who uses the buses both in town and commuting from the suburbs, I can tell you that the skill/attention level of the driver makes a huge difference on the express routes. While the drivers of anything in the 30s (including the 38B) have little hope of staying on schedule given the demands of crosstown traffic, on some of the suburb-to-DC routes the on-time performance of the different drivers does vary significantly. It's easy to track this because the drivers on the route (and I think maybe all Metro routes?) are switched out by management every six months. One of the current drivers is close to an entire 40-minute cycle late every single day, where their predecessors in the same time slot on the route were always within about 5 minutes of on time.

I have to agree with Reid: the best way to keep people from getting so frustrated with the performance, on-time or otherwise, of Metrobus is to keep people informed.

Not only is NextBus essential for this, but some ability for the drivers to regularly communicate with the dispatchers needs to be in place. Every time I have to call customer service when there's a delay, no-one is ever able to communicate directly with a driver who is in transit.

Metrorail may not be running any more on time than it has historically, but being able to know when the next several trains are coming at least gives people some clue as to whether it's worth waiting. (Ideally, all the stations should have that information visible to riders before they pay to enter the system.)

They really could add more buses on major routes, thus they would be more frequent, and the lateness wouldn't matter so much. In Vancouver, busses ran every five minutes on the major routes. Their system works very well.

Hey, my DAD was a Woookie! He fought those retarded robots on Kashyyyk, he drove the H2 bus for years, AND he had Hugh Downs Syndrome. The poor bastard had to host 20/20 for YEARs to put me through clown college (University of Maryland). And this is the thanks he gets for serving his planet? He never got a parade when he came back from fighting at Chunking and La Choy! Where's his monument?

If the buses are on-time 73% of the time, then they're on-time almost 3 out of every 4 times.

The comment, "not being able to stick within a 9 minute window for more than one out of every four trips" is incorrect. They are late more than 1 out of every 4 times, not on-time.

Who's doing the stats??

flamingcissy: The answer might not be getting drivers to drive faster. It might be revising bus schedules so they reflect reality.

***

Hey! It works with standardized test scores, so why not try it out with buses? If you can't meet the standards, lower them! Works every time.

i take the bus every day. i never knew there was an actual schedule or that it mattered. during rush hour, people want buses every couple minutes. off hours is a time period in which a schedule matters more. buses are less able to be on-'schedule' during rush hour anyway.

I see you are advocating "no passenger left behind."

We should just let the drivers smoke and talk on their cell phones while they drive, that way they'll take shorter "breaks" when they are supposed to driving my ass home at night.

Isn't it AT-AV, as in "all terrain attack vehicles"?

I want one. I bet they could even find a way to make them wind-powered, so no matter which gasbags occupy the hill you'd never have a shortage of energy. Maybe!

Three steps to improve bus service (many already mentioned, but here's your itemized list):

1) NextBus - every bus has a GPS; every stop has a station ID. Call the NextBus number, it polls the GPS, tells you an approximation of the time you'll have to wait but ALSO tells you the distance away so you may be able to judge based on traffic around you how long it will actually take.

2) Bus consolidation/waiting. As mentioned, bus-bunching is a big problem - a bus drives by half-full; two minutes later there's an empty bus. Let bus drivers communicate with each other and with a dispatcher (also already mentioned) so that empty bus can slow its roll - the half-full bus will let the dispatcher know when it's completely full in order for the empty bus to come play catch-up.

3) MetroMap for buses - if the GPS in the bus is already communicating with a central server/database, spend a little bit more money developing a live map of where buses are on certain lines. I have the option to take the L2, the 90s, or the 42 most of the time, but when I'd like to know which one is closest, I could consult the map online before I head out. Seriously, this isn't fucking hard at all - WMATA just needs to make a technology investment.


Side suggestions:
Isn't it about fucking time that Metro buses accepted the Metro's paper cards?

Why AREN'T the Metro subway times posted OUTSIDE the station? I'm sure they don't want people hurt running down the escalators, but a lot of the time knowing that you have 4 minutes to get to the track would mean you get your train instead of waiting another 30 minutes.

AT-AT = All terrain armored transport

not to be confused with the AT-ST (all terrain scout transport), which is what the Ewoks knocked over.

Yes, I just looked it up. Work is slow today.

When i lived in Anchorage back in the early 80's the bus drivers coordinated transfers over cb radio. If you asked, the bus driver would radio the connecting bus to find their location and when possible ask the driver to wait at the stop until we arrived.

I guess they didn't want their customers to freeze to death ..bad for business. I don't expect that same service in our big city but a little thought might help.

i totally agree with everyone (starting with reid) who says that they just need to f'in roll out next bus.

catoe should just say "you know what, there's no way we can stick to schedules. traffic in this town is a bitch, and we're just going to do the best we can. but, we will allow you to know exactly where the buses are at all times."

transparency.

just make the GPS feed free and available to all of us. someone in this town will be geeky enough to create an application that maps the buses for free. it will be like wmata outsourcing their work for free. what the hell else can you ask for?

Do the drivers have a union? I wonder if the union would block something like NextBus. I'm not if they could or even would, but I'm curious to know.

Why would they block it? I don't see the harm of it at all to the drivers, unless WMATA is using it as a metric of driver performance.

Isn't it about fucking time that Metro buses accepted the Metro's paper cards?

I hope not. Metro needs to eliminate paper (cash and cards) and coins as much as possible.

Moreover, when is Metro going to get rid of paper transfers? A good ten percent of riders on some routes that I take have those, and a large number of them are ragged (i.e. old) and used for free rides.

Yes they do have a union, although I can't say I've heard their position on Nextbus. I should say that there were rumors that drivers were either intentionally or accidentally turning off the transpoder for Nextbus. But only rumors.

I believe we haven't been told the whole story on Nextbus. They claim technical difficulties, I'm not so sure. They shut it down because it was "only" about 70% accurate. So rather than keep a good but imperfect system, they shut it down for "12-18 months" (read: indefinitely). Add to it the consideration that they were adding lines to the database at a molasses pace even before they shut it down, and you get the impression that, for whatever reason, Metro is not particularly excited about Nextbus.

To add another wrinkle, you have this situation played out in San Fran, where it appears that there was a failure from top to bottom among Muni staff to buy into the Nextbus system. The "oh, don't pay attention to that man behind the curtain over there, Next bus is not working" response is eerily present in both San Fran and DC.

Contrast that with the smartrip readers. Those got rolled out incredibly fast. From announcement to installation was a matter of months. NextBus was first announced in January of 2006. It'll probably be three years on before we get even one line back working.

This is what happens when you have Metro staffed by people who don't ride the bus everyday.

Why AREN'T the Metro subway times posted OUTSIDE the station? I'm sure they don't want people hurt running down the escalators, but a lot of the time knowing that you have 4 minutes to get to the track would mean you get your train instead of waiting another 30 minutes.
They've put monitors outside of at least the Rosslyn station; in Rosslyn's case I believe it may be something that Arlington is paying for rather than WMATA. If they gave people a grace period during which you could have the charges subtracted back off of your card if you enter and exit at the same station, that would be one thing, but few things tick me off more than paying to get into a station and then hearing a squawky announcement that there's a delay.

NextBus is not gone...it just takes a little creativity to find it on the NextBus website ;-) It's also a lot more extensive than it was before. I wonder if they'll officially be rolling it out soon or if it's going to stay in this hidden state for months and months. Of course now that I've said this, they'll probably find a way to take it off their site completely.

inlogano: you can't hold back on us like that. gotta let people know. information wants to be free!

Knowing WMATA they'll take it down now, but after going to the Nextbus website, slick on Simple Website, then click any of the states, then into one of the transit agencies. Once you do that you can see the simple URL at the top that only needs a minor edit ;)

Don't worry too much about whether the ICC costs $2.4B or $2.5B, it's still the best transportation use of money in MD. With the anticipated 300,000 trips per day on the highway when it's fully open, nothing else comes close to serving so many people. This project provides tremendous new capacity to the region.
Consider, for example, that the new Woodrow Wilson Bridge also cost $2.4B: That project, although essential, provided absolutely no new transportation capacity, options, connectivity, or mobility to the region.

The maps are working for some routes, like the 42, for example. Click it

I really don't understand how you expect busses to be on time 100% of the time if they're STUCK IN THE SAME TRAFFIC AS THE CARS. All the more reason to have streetcar lines that have priority and can switch cross street lights from red to green.

um, drr, you could give the same power to buses... a drr drr drrrrrrrrrrrrr

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