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That's the conclusion of former DCist editor and urban planner Rob Goodspeed, who has crunched the most recent numbers on his blog. Goodspeed predicts that Washington's long history as a majority-black city will come to an end as soon as 2014, at which time the city's black population will make up just above 49 percent of residents, with whites, Asians and other ethnic groups making up the rest of the population. The projection puts the demographic change arriving at least six years prior to the estimate made by Robert Lang, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, when he was quoted in a Washington Post story on the subject last year.
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We went to the Macy's at 12th & G this morning for the Black Friday morning specials. There was a sh
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looking at the numbers, the interesting thing is that it appears that, if the trends hold, no one will be the majority group for a good long time.
that strikes me as a very good thing. we'll all be 'minorities' in this city. no one can say their group deserves "more" than anyone else.
Good news!
i find it absurd that you are comparing the funded research study of the director of a university research center to the excel spreadsheet of a blogger. he doesn't even explain his methodology.
My spreadsheet shows that by 2010 the city will be 20% black, 20% white, 20% latino, 20% "other", and 20% Alaskan. And my spreadsheet was double checked by a few people.
somethingorother: don't go knocking rob's anaylsis out-of-hand. he's not just "some blogger", he has a planning degree and would most likely explain his methodology to you fully if you asked.
a blogger with an MA in planning is not a demographer going through peer-reviewed publications and funding process. i'm just saying the comparison is absurd.
and the fact that he doesn't discuss his methodology makes ANY comparison to ANY study useless.
I wouldn't be surprised if it happens sooner than 2014. Lately, it seems like whites are coming back in droves. Sort of a reverse White Flight.
My spreadsheet shows that by 2010 the city will be a devastated wasteland, in which vicious gangs of mohawked mutants with superpowers battle each other and the undead armies of the Lord of Bones, the Tocharian necromancer who reigns with a grim sort of peace and stability from his necropolis in Dupont Down Under.
I should note that I use OpenOffice, which may explain the discrepancies.
what's the big difference somethingorother, they both come to the general acceptance that the non-majorityness will happen sometime soon, it just might be a little earlier than mr. lang thinks.
is that so absurd?
a comparison of my bottle of beer shows that as early as five minutes ago it had 12 oz of beer, but upon further review it seems to have 0 oz! That's an alarming trend!! AND a 100% of beer surveyed!!
Methodologies aside, I need to hear George Clinton's take on this.
Lately, it seems like whites are coming back in droves. Sort of a reverse White Flight.
HCE: You have spotted a trend! You get to name this new phenomenon. I'm thinking that the word should start with a G...
Here's why Rob's analysis is superior to the funded research study of the director of a university research center: It includes 2007's numbers.
The funded research study only used 2006 and older data.
Well I know there is one black family moving into DC in a few months....In NW even.
thanks for pointing that out, dcsterorama. that's better than me blindly cheering on rob.
Of course I don't expect anyone to consider my blog on par with academic research.
My projection was a linear projection using the 2000 SF1 figure and 2006 and 2007 ACS estimates. Excel calculates a linear projection by using the Ordinary Least Squares method (the TREND function). The 2006 and 2007 estimates are much rougher than 2000 data since they are sample statistics so that may affect the validity of the data.
Robert Lang just said it would happen "by 2020," which is correct. The New York Times story, which I also link to, included this paragraph:
"Neighborhoods in other cities have gentrified in recent years, but the change in Washington is significant, said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. Mr. Frey said the city could cease to have a black majority by 2015, although he said blacks would still be the largest ethnic group."
I thought this stuff didn't matter, according to the people who move into predominantly black neighborhoods.
How long is DC's so-called "long history" as a black majority city? I'm old enough to rememebr when parts of SE, yes, SE, were white, and heard the same about parts of NE, even Trinidad. I believe DC didn't turn majority black til the late 60s or even the early 70s.
the fact that dc has been majority african-american for a relatively short time is mentioned here.
to follow up on chelita's comment (number 19), exactly how long has DC been a black majority city?
Well my spreadsheet shows that by 2010, the only people on the planet with any money left will be the Chinese and the Indians, who will buy whole swaths of downtown DC and maybe finally we can get some decent dim sum and curry takeaways.
Also, by 2014, All-American Trucker Jack Burton will do battle with the evil Lo Pan and the Lords of Death beneath the streets of Chinablock, but can he save Kim Cattrall in time before she makes the sequel to Sexchange in the City? Stay tuned.
I hope that once the Chinese buy up downtown DC, they'll at least keep a few blocks as Americatown, where all the stores, no matter how Sino, will be forced to have signs in broken English too.
Anybody remember that Chinese carryout in Georgetown called "McWang's?" It was on Wisconsin near the K Street bridge. I always thought that was a cool name. Much cooler than O'Dong's. And their shlimp flied lice doesn't suck, I hasten to add, but do pass on their Big McWang sandwich. You don't want to know where their "special sauce" comes from.
My spreadsheet brings all the boys to the yard, and they're like, 'it's better than yours', damn right, it's better than yours - I could teach you, but I'd have to charge.
@chelita The blogger for inShaw, has a number of well written posts about the demographic history of Shaw and Truxton Circle. Though her research is not about DC as a whole, her work does show how the neighborhoods have changed demographically over time. I wish my google-fu was stronger with this topic & and her posts, but here's a link to all her posts about Neighborhood History.