Local Politics Columnists Warn of Gay Marriage 'Storm'
As the battle over gay marriage in the District heats up -- the Washington Blade reports today that D.C. Council member David Catania (I-At Large) may introduce a bill before the end of the month -- a number of politics watchers have warned of political tension and conflict that may ensue.
In the Examiner today, longtime local politics watcher Harry Jaffe argues that Catania's move may provoke what he terms a "political storm." "My dog isn't howling yet, but I sense a political storm the likes of which we have not seen since D.C. tried to legalize abortions, and Sen. Jesse Helms emphatically put it down back in the 1980s," he writes. Fellow Examiner scribe Jonetta Rose Barras darkly warned last week that Catania and fellow Council member Phil Mendelson (D-At Large) may feel some electoral heat over their support for gay marriage, while DC Watch's Gary Imhoff posits that "widespread voter resentment" may be the result of gay marriage being approved without a direct public say.
However you slice it, it seems like we've got a political and cultural hurricane coming, right?
Yes and no.
Imhoff has been most strident in playing up the possibility of a big political backlash should marriage equality come to pass, but he has also consistently expressed his general discomfort with same-sex marriage. Warning of conflict to come is a typical tactic of those opposing policy changes -- especially if they strongly disagree with them. So far, activism on the local level against marriage equality has been, with the exception of a small but vocal group of black religious leaders, actually pretty muted, and a pair of polls cited by Loose Lips last week both indicate D.C. voters don't see marriage equality as something to oppose.
Jaffe, on the other hand, wisely relies on past congressional meddling and the existing national sensitivities over gay marriage to predict that should legislation make it through the council -- which, given the 10 members already on record supporting it, it will -- local and national anti-marriage equality activists will work with members of Congress to make sure it never actually takes effect. Given the number of times that this has happened -- both in response to legislation passed by the council and by activist members of Congress looking to impose their views on the District -- Jaffe is going with a safe bet. Then again, Congress is looking at a busy fall, so a local gay marriage initiative might not make the same splash it otherwise would. And it's still a Democratic Congress, so there's theoretically Democrats should be able to hold off any attempts by Republicans or conservative members of their own party.
Even if Congress does find a way to get involved, there's some silver lining to the rising storm clouds. Passage of the coming bill will surely make national news, and it will force a lot of members of Congress to square their belief in federalism with their desire to use federal power against a city making a local decision. It would also put locals opposed to marriage equality in the uncomfortable position of looking for help from members of Congress who are opposed to D.C. voting rights and home rule. Those are strange bedfellows.