Gray Could Beat Fenty, Poll Finds
Yesterday the Washington Post asked a number of local political watchers, myself included, if we thought Mayor Adrian Fenty would be re-elected in 2010. Some said yes, others said no. I stressed that without a credible challenger – and none has yet stepped forward – Fenty would cruise to a second term. Well, if that capable challenger ends up being D.C. Council Chair Vincent Gray, Fenty may have to start looking for a new job.
According to a new poll conducted by the Clarus Research Group, Gray would narrowly beat Fenty in a head-to-head match up, with 41 percent of registered voters preferring Gray, to Fenty's 37. And in highlighting a burgeoning racial division in the city, 57 percent of African Americans would pick Gray, with Fenty only winning 20 percent of black voters. Fenty's strongest bases of support? Whites (51 percent). Also, Republicans (44 percent).
Gray might want to continue to exercise caution before deciding this poll means he should definitely run, however. In the two-way contest, 22 percent of voters remained undecided. And once the hypothetical election was expanded to include council members Kwame Brown (D-At Large) and Michael Brown (I-At Large), the anti-Fenty vote split, allowing the mayor to win a second term with just 34 percent of the vote.
What the poll makes clear is that while the majority of the District's residents (53 percent) say they are inclined to vote for someone new, a crowded field could allow Fenty to keep his job. And though Fenty and Gray share similar approval ratings (43 and 46 percent, respectively), Gray's disapproval ratings are substantially lower (16 percent compared to Fenty's 49 percent). Plus, fully 38 percent of respondents don't seem to know much about Gray. So while the chairman would need to make himself more known, Fenty will have to make himself more liked – not the easier of the two tasks.
In a statement responding to the poll, Gray played it coy: "I was pleased to learn that a poll by the Clarus Research Group reports my approval rating at 46 percent and disapproval at 16 percent. There is no greater calling than public service. And I am honored to serve the city in which I was born, raised and live. I look forward to even higher ratings, no matter what elected position I hold," he said.
Other interesting outtakes are that lots of folks like D.C. Police Chief Cathy Lanier (71 percent approve of her), while opinion on Schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee is closely split (47 percent like her, 39 percent don't). On Fenty's tenure, the sitting mayor got passing marks (above 50 percent) only on keeping crime down and maintaining streets and public places. On every other issue – ethics, taxes, leadership, finances – he got a thumbs down. And on his signature issue – education – 43 percent of respondents approved of Fenty, while 40 disapproved.
A couple of notes on the poll: Clarus says they spoke with registered voters, as opposed to likely voters, which is generally considered a less accurate measure. Also, the margin of error is listed at 4.4 percent, which puts the gap between Fenty and Gray well within that margin.
All told, this certainly means good things for Gray, should he choose to run as a consensus candidate aimed at the "Anyone but Fenty" crowd. Of course, his most recent potential ethics scandals could still be a factor in that decision. As for Fenty, well, he still has a year to change some minds. Otherwise, he might have to go on the offensive against Gray -- and soon. And that wouldn't bode well for those already strained mayoral-council relations.