Last Night's Action: Do We Want Roy Oswalt?
Matt Capps blew his second save of the season last night;
could Roy Oswalt be joining him in D.C. this summer?
(AP Photo/David J. Phillip)
But a topic of arguably greater interest arose before the game started. Starting pitcher Roy Oswalt, the three-time All-Star who is currently languishing as the only real commodity on a very bad Houston team, told the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore that he'd be willing to waive his no-trade clause for a move to the Nationals. Why is this big news? Well, aside from blind optimism a couple of years ago that local boy Mark Teixeria would take a risk and the Lerners' cash, the Nationals have never really seemed a destination for, well, anyone. But with a revitalized team and Stephen Strasburg's debut days away, Oswalt's the biggest name that's ever truly and openly admitted that the Nationals might be an intriguing team to play for.
But should Nationals fans really hope that general manager Mike Rizzo pulls the trigger on a deal to bring the Astro ace to D.C.? Maybe not.
Oswalt's got credentials. Ten seasons into his big league career, Oswalt boasts a 140-77 career record, including two 20-win seasons and five top five finishes in the annual Cy Young Award voting. He's reliable (having started more than 30 games in seven of the last eight years) and dynamic (having never averaged fewer than 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings over his career). Plus, his career numbers are equal or better to many of today's elite pitchers like Roy Halladay, Johan Santana and C.C. Sabathia.
But there are signs that Oswalt might be at the start of a mid-career decline, as his salary continues to escalate. Take a look at this chart, which measures Oswalt's expensive contract against his wins above replacement level over the past five seasons:
As you can see, Oswalt -- while a wildly successful pitcher who certainly has been one of the best pitchers of the last decade -- has lost a lot of net value over the past few seasons, especially considering that he'd instantly become the highest paid player on the Nationals roster through the end of next season. (Adam Dunn, currently tops that list at $12 million per year.) Would Oswalt be an improvement for the team's pitching staff in the short term? Without a doubt. Would he be able to reduce the ridiculous pressure on Strasburg to deliver results immediately? Sure.
But does Oswalt represent the kind of player who's worth the three good prospects and significant financial commitment that it would cost the Nats to pry him from Houston? The jury's definitely still out on that.