New Poll Shows Gray With Large Lead Over Fenty
Nikita Stewart and Jon Cohen have the full write-up online today, which provides a fascinating look at the state of the race. It's worth the read, and shows how the numbers have changed for Fenty since 2006.
The biggest storyline to is that in general, Democrats are pleased with what has been done during Fenty's first term. A full 67% of those surveyed believe that Fenty has brought needed change to the District. 59% say that the city is on the right track. 47% of voters approve of Fenty's performance.
Fenty gets into trouble with the so-called personality gap. Only 45% surveyed believe Fenty understands their problems, and only 39% agree that the mayor is honest and trustworthy. Gray, on the other hand, scores very well on these points. 61% say he understands their problems, and the same percentage find him to be honest and trustworthy.
There is also a significant enthusiasm gap: 78% of Fenty voters are enthusiastically supporting, while Gray scores 90%. A full 21% of Fenty voters are not enthusiastically supportive, which again fits with the narrative that much of Fenty's support is despite voters' misgivings about his personality.
Another interesting number comes from the issues section of the poll. Those surveyed indicated the most important issues to them were schools, the economy, and crime. 21% of voters say the biggest problem facing the District is jobs. This is a point that Gray has hammered Fenty on since the unveiling of his economic plan. While the personality and enthusiasm gaps are important, it may be time to bring back the old "it's the economy, stupid" piece of conventional wisdom.
With only two weeks remaining before election day, time is running out for the Fenty campaign to change the narrative. A 17-point deficit in the polls and a last-minute attempt to change voting rules contribute to the message that a Fenty defeat may be inevitable. If a Gray victory becomes the expected outcome, that could be enough to cause Fenty supporters to jump ship. How Fenty reacts to this poll, and how his campaign responds this week will likely determine his fate.