DCist: Since the Lerner/Kasten team took over the team, every move is justified as part of “The Plan,” a media catch-all for Kasten’s strategy to rebuild the scouting, player development, and roster depth throughout the organization. What sort of indicators will let fans know if The Plan is working? How soon can we hope for Plan success to translate into Major League wins?
Nats Farm Authority: I laugh when I read references to “The Plan” because honestly it’s not anything revolutionary to build a team from the ground up. That concept has been around for a long time. What “The Plan” really offers more than anything else is a built-in excuse for poor performance at the major league level.
But to answer your question, an example of when we’ll know it’s working is when the Nationals won’t have to assemble a rotation by cattle call. An easy indicator that things are working is when the casual fan reads about other teams actually scouting the Nationals farm system for players. It’s going to take some time. Kasten’s claim of a couple of years is pretty aggressive. I’d say things are more likely to show dramatic improvement (i.e. top 10 minor league organization) in four or five years.
Federal Baseball: I agree that “The Plan” is really more rhetoric than blueprint. And while I don’t think Kasten or anyone in the front office coined the exact phrase, they’ve seemed to indulge its use and the connotations that go with it. After the disorder MLB wrought, the fans want order. That’s what a plan implies.
I guess you could look at minor league records, except I don’t know if or how they correlate with player development, especially in the higher levels of the minors. You could look at individual awards like league player of the year, except Kory Casto has earned honors everywhere he’s been and still isn’t seen as a real top prospect in part because he’s always been a shade old for his levels as he’s progressed up the chain. I guess the best things to do are to follow the Nats affiliates closely, look if their players start getting rated highly by “Baseball America” compared to other organizations’ players, and most of all be realistic about this.
The Nats have acquired lots of younger guys since last season and totally flipped their top prospects list. But it would be foolish to look at those guys and say him, him, and him are integral parts of “The Plan.” Prospects often fail, and that’s why you need lots of good ones. I’d say it’s three to four years before the minors are impactful and self-sustaining, which would be the biggest contribution of “The Plan.”
Panorama by Flickr user randomduck.
