In the past 3 seasons, the Nationals have exceeded expectations, which was mostly a function of having very low expectations. After disappointing everyone last year by not having a historically bad season, expectations are higher this year. While I can’t find anyone who is willing to go out on a limb and predict that the Nationals will compete in the NL East, the Marlins’ commitment to alienating their few fans should keep the Nats out of the NL East cellar. Last year the team finished with a record of 73-89. We think that 81-81 would be a good step forward, and a reasonable goal. Let’s take a look at the Nats’ roster and see how they can get there.

First Base: One of the most intriguing questions heading into spring training was “who is going to start at first for the Nationals?” Nick Johnson seems to be the answer. Johnson missed all of last season after breaking his leg at the end of the previous season. He has had a strong spring, and Dmitri Young has been struggling with weight and health issues. If Nick can return to form, his high batting average and on base percentage will be a great addition to the Nats lineup. That said, Johnson is unlikely to finish the season as a National. If he shows that he is healthy, and starts strong, look for Bowden to move him for prospects. The calendar still shows that Thursday, May 1 is Dmitri Young bobblehead day. Fifteen thousand dolls is a pretty firm commitment to a player, at least for this team.

Middle Infield: The Nationals are saddled with 3 average middle infielders and only two positions. It currently looks like Christian Guzman and Ronnie Belliard have secured starting positions at shortstop and 2nd respectively. Guzman is in his contract year, and nothing motivates players quite like contract negotiations. Fans may remember his .219 batting average from 2005, but he has had Lasik eye surgery since then, and started last season strong.

That leaves Felipe Lopez on the bench. After allegations of attitude problems last year, Lopez has apparently been a model player this Spring. The team will probably look to trade Lopez, but his poor numbers from last year and this spring, coupled with the $4.9 million he is going to make this year, could make that a difficult proposition. Also, Nationals infielders like to get hurt a lot, so it might make sense to keep him around.

Photo by Liliang