Photo by Fredo Alvarez

Are you a nerd? Do you really like baseball? Have you often considered that a life completely controlled by robot simulators might actually be preferable to all this “free will” jazz you hear so much about? If your answer to all three of those questions is yes, then yesterday was probably a big day for you: Baseball Prospectus, the hardball geek’s bible, released its annual Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm — or PECOTA — projections for players and teams for the upcoming season. And guess what? They actually think that the Nationals will be decent. Like, over .500 decent. The Prospectus projects that the Nats will finish 82-80, which, in a somewhat-depleted National League, would be only three games out of the Wild Card slot. Three games out of the playoffs, people!

Of course, all that optimism is tempered slightly when one remembers that the PECOTA algorithm does not factor in injuries, trades, or luck. So, in summation: if absolutely nothing disturbs the clubhouse balance, they don’t have any major injuries, the front office doesn’t make any silly personnel moves, and the players get more lucky bounces than not, then the Nationals just might not suck beyond belief this season. Hope springs eternal, apparently even for the machines.