Photo by furcafe.

You know, watching everyone in D.C. suddenly transform into that dude from Lie To Me who is able to magically read facial expressions and then apply said skills to judge the mannerisms which Michelle Rhee exhibited during yesterday’s press conference with Vince Gray is fascinating and all — but Rhee’s not the only important government official who might herself out of a job under the new Gray administration. What about Metropolitan Police Chief Cathy Lanier?

I assume that those of you who are deeply interested in these kind of things have read Harry Jaffe’s column in the Examiner today (we linked to it in the Roundup this morning). Jaffe thinks that despite totally being one of the most popular people in town, Lanier will be hitting the bricks. And soon, thanks to massive opposition from the police union, who endorsed her presumptive new boss, Vince Gray.

My guess is Lanier leaves her office months before Michelle Rhee takes off.

By many statistical measures, Lanier has done well. Crime is way down. Homicides continue to dip to lows we haven’t seen since the 1960s. Closure rates are up. Lanier has forced cops to use high-tech equipment and tried to reduce paperwork. All good.

But Lanier lost the hearts and minds of the street cops along the way. Her boss, Adrian Fenty, never bonded with the police officers. He lost their trust early on when he seemed to side against the two cops who were involved in the shooting of DeOnte Rawlings. Lanier was seen as backing Fenty and abandoning her troops.

Lanier does have a very personal beef with the police union. That is not debatable. But the insinuation that Lanier could leave, even before Rhee, is an interesting position to take — especially considering the sizable advantage in social capital that the Chief has over the Chancellor.