Nationals pitcher Cole Kimball checks out Nationals Park before the season kicks off. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)Weather permitting, today marks the start of the 2011 Washington Nationals baseball season. After finishing with a 69-93 record last year — which actually represented ten-game improvement over 2009 — the club showed signs in the offseason of wanting to spend money and make honest-to-goodness roster improvements. The Nats landed a top-tier free agent in Jayson Werth, brought in Adam LaRoche to fill the gap left at first base by Adam Dunn’s departure, and solidified the bullpen with the veteran arms of Todd Coffey and Chad Gaudin. The new faces, combined with some youngsters entering their first full season of major league duty like Michael Morse and Jordan Zimmermann, and it appears as if the Lerners, general manager Mike Rizzo and manager Jim Riggleman have pieced together a team with a new attitude.
It’s just a shame that I don’t think they’ll be very good.
Here’s the projected batting order for your Washington Nationals: Ian Desmond, Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam LaRoche, Morse, Rick Ankiel, Danny Espinosa, Pudge Rodriguez. At the top of the order, Desmond replaces the banished Nyjer Morgan who, when he was on (in late 2009) or out to piss off the other team (in all of 2010), could wreak some havoc on the basepaths. Desmond is a decent hitter and can steal some bases, but he doesn’t walk very much and hasn’t been the type to try to beat out a bunt. Once he gets on base, what happens next with Werth at the plate? You’re not going to ask your 9-figure man to lay down a sacrifice bunt, so the gamble is to count on Werth to make some contact in hit-and-run situations. Zimmerman will be in for a rough year, unless Werth and LaRoche show some profiency at the plate, because no one is pitching to the star third-baseman now that Adam Dunn is gone. The most intriguing prospect in the lineup is Morse, who had a monster spring with nine home runs. Morse also put up monster numbers in June and July last year in a part-time role, but struggled once he started playing more.
That, in a nutshell, is how these Nationals are going to score runs this year. I could see Espinosa being moved up in the order behind Desmond to at least get some runners in scoring position for the big bats. But the order as it stands now does not leave me optimistic about potential for an offensive explosion.
On the other hand, it the Nats can improve even marginally on defense, then that will help quite a bit. Desmond, after committing a major-league leading 34 errors in 2010, continued his horrid defensive play in the spring, committing six errors in only 20 games. (Crap.) Espinosa, the second link in the double play tandem, committed three errors in 18 games this spring. (Double crap.) On the bright side, LaRoche is a huge defensive improvement over Dunn, and Zimmerman, no stranger to errors himself, had a solid spring in the field. As for the outfield, Werth, Ankiel and Morse aren’t exactly rangy speedsters, so opponents will have ample opportunities to leg out an extra bases on balls hit to the gaps and the corners. And hey, no one stole a base on Pudge this spring. That’s great.
With the offense not scoring many runs and the defense not being able to close out innings, the burden falls on the pitching staff to keep the team in games. The Nats boast a starting rotation of Livan Hernandez, John Lannan, Jordan Zimmermann, Jason Marquis and Tom Gorzelanny. “Excitement” is not the first word that comes to mind when I see this list, but I am optimistic about Lannan and Zimmermann. Lannan closed out 2010 on a high note and got an enormous raise — I see a lot of six- and seven-inning outings with four runs given up. Zimmermann is entering his first full year in the rotation, after showing some outstanding stuff in 2009 and missing all of last year. He’s either going to blow people away or crash and burn, but at least he’ll be interesting to watch. As for the rest? It kind of feels like a bunch of place-holders. Livan will eat up innings and may be the only pitcher on the staff who can keep the team in the game when the offense averages three runs. Gorzelanny had a good year (for a Pirate pitcher) back in 2007, which is exactly why GM Mike Rizzo traded for him. (I wish I was making that up). About the only thing I can say about Jason Marquis is that surely he can’t pitch as poorly as he did last year — but everyone likes a challenge.
As for the bullpen, if you’re not scared yet, get ready. I’m on record as being extremely anti-closer-by-committee, but Rigglemann isn’t fooled by his own 100 percent failure rate. Rather, he’s playing the odds with Drew Storen if the majority of upcoming batters are righties and Sean Burnett if the percentages are flipped. Or something. Of course, getting worked up over the closer role would require the Nationals to hold a lead into the ninth inning, and that’s not something that middle relief has been great at facilitating. Tyler Clippard pitched out of his mind for the first part of last year, but fell off late and struggled this spring. Doug Slaten is the only lefty in the bullpen aside from Burnett, and he can at least get people out. The bullpen is rounded out by new faces including veterans Todd Coffey and Chad Gaudin, and Brian Broderick, who will have to show that the Nationals were right to keep him if only to keep him away from the Cardinals.
Portents of doom: LaRoche has a torn labrum that he’s playing through. Zimmerman sat out a while with a groin problem in the spring. And there’s a general unease about Zimmermann returning from Tommy John surgery.
Who’s not here: Yes, Stephen Strasburg is still out for the year. Messiah-of-the-future Bryce Harper is already making friends up in Hagerstown and enjoying its outstanding outlet center. Ross Detwiler, who didn’t meet a fifth inning he couldn’t allow 5 runs in last year, had a great spring but got sent to the minors. Roger Bernadina, who I’m high on, couldn’t get it going this spring and was passed over for Ankiel.
Prediction: There will be trouble scoring runs on offense, and the bullpen isn’t going to blow leads so much as allow existing ones to expand. I don’t think this is a 100-loss team, but without an ace on the pitching staff to reliably hold down opponents every five days, 65-97 feels about right.
