Photo by philliefan99.

First off, allow me to completely disqualify everything I’m about to say. Your guess as to how the Redskins will perform this year is just as good as mine. They’ve shown themselves to be neither a super-sexy offensive juggernaut, nor particularly inept in the ways a Rex Grossman-led offense tends to be. Their defensive front seven looks among the best in the league, but their secondary is still allergic to coverage. Whereas my initial expectations were hysterically dour going into the first preseason game, the Redskins performed adequately enough in the preseason to put more predictive W’s on my printed schedule than I had originally intended. So as we travel with the Redskins in their Quest to Exceed Diminished Expectations, just how many Ws will their adequate play lead to?

Part I: Up and Down
Schedule: N.Y. Giants, Arizona, @Dallas, @St. Louis, Philadelphia

Stop me if this sounds familiar — the Redskins lose a heartbreaker one week, making us question whether they have the heart to close out a tight game. The next week, they blow away the opponent for three quarters and hold on in the fourth and leave us with starry aspirations of Super Bowl glory. The first part of the season will take us for a ride on that familiar rollercoaster. The Redskins haven’t figured out a way to tackle any Giants running back in years and have allowed Eli Manning to pick them apart mercilessly. Even though the Giants have been decimated by injuries in the preseason, particularly on defense, I think they’ll march into Landover and steal the opener. Arizona visits the following week, sparking a shootout similar to the Week 2 Houston game last year. Neither defense shows up, but DeAngelo Hall makes a key pick in the fourth quarter to seal the game, compensating for the 170 yards he personally handed to Larry Fitzgerald. The Redskins then take to the road to visit Dallas (with their big TV) and St. Louis (with what I’m sure is a perfectly adequate salt-of-the-earth TV). Dallas shouldn’t be injured or apathetic enough yet to lose, but the Rams, while not back to being 2009 levels of awful, are mired in Sam Bradford’s sophomore slump and hand the Redskins the win. If being 2-2 and a game out of first place going into the Week 5 bye has already exceeded your expectations, the Eagles will gladly come into town and harsh your buzz, in spite of a very concerted attempt to re-break Michael Vick’s ribs. The chapter ends, and the Redskins neither let us down entirely nor get us excited to watch more. The team sports a decent 2-3 record and Grossman has more touchdowns than interceptions.

Part II: The Gods are Smiling
Schedule: @Carolina, @Buffalo, San Francisco, @Miami, Dallas

The Scheduling Gods took pity on the Redskins after their pitiful 2010 campaign, gift-wrapping a four-game stretch in the middle of the season with games against against Carolina, Buffalo, San Francisco and Miami. Carolina is a popular pick to be the worst team in the league for the second year in a row, if only because top draft pick Cam Newton hasn’t looked much better than the JV-level QBs the Panthers trotted out last year. Neither Buffalo nor Miami have much in the way of offense — Buffalo having traded away a top wide receiver (Lee Evans) and Miami having just signed Larry Johnson — yes, former Redskin Larry Johnson — to solidfy their backfield. Out in San Francisco, quarterback Alex Smith must have some dirt on the ownership given how many second-and-third-and-fourth chances he’s received to be the starter. Granted, three of the four games are on the road, but if the Redskins don’t take advantage of this stretch, the Andrew Luck Watch officially begins (if it hasn’t begun already, of course). Despite the cupcake schedule, I think the Redskins lose an easy game, probably either to Buffalo or Miami, and take the other three. Dallas returns to the Package Delivery Coliseum in a midseason malaise, and the Redskins provide a little payback for the ugly loss back in Week 3. The Redskins trail the Eagles by one game for the NFC East division lead and sport a healthy 6-4 record.

Part III: The Wheels Fall Off
Schedule: @Seattle, N.Y. Jets, New England, @N.Y. Giants

Like I said, I hope the Redskins take advantage of the middle part of their schedule, because the next four games are going to be brutal. Seattle is always a tough place to play no matter how bad the team is, and the Redskins will commit one false start too many and gift a win to the home team. It doesn’t get easier from there, with the top dogs of the AFC East heading to Landover. I think the contest against the Jets will be ugly and close (like 17-12 in favor of the visitors), while New England will remind us all that they weren’t finished scoring in that 52-7 blowout back in 2007. The Redskins head up to the Meadowlands to face the Giants and find a way to allow another 200 rushing yards to Jacobs and Bradshaw. The elation after the Dallas game is all but gone, with the team sitting at 6-8 with an outside every-other-team-in-the-NFC-needs-to-lose shot at the Wild Card.

Part IV: After the Fall
Schedule: Minnesota, @Philadelphia

Usually at this point in the season, with the Redskins mostly out of the playoff race, Sundays become an opportunity to be entertained by men in plastic pads launching into each other. However, Donovan McNabb will be one of those men in plastic pads in Week 16, returning to Landover for a chance to exact revenge on his former team. The Redskins surely still have every second of game and practice film on McNabb, and it’s not like he’s gotten any faster or better at throwing balls above his receivers’ feet. Of course, this assumes that McNabb is still the Vikings’ starting quarterback come Week 16. As blowouts go, the Redskins are usually the blowees and seldom the blowers, but I think the script finally flips against the Vikings. To close the season, let’s make a brash assumption and say that the Eagles already have something clinched, whether it’s the division or home-field advantage, and have little to play for. With the Philly starters seeing only limited action, the Redskins win the game and send us into the offseason on a high note.

Doing the math, that leaves the Redskins with an 8-8 record. Perfectly adequate. It has a 6.25 percent chance of being right, and that’s better than playing the lottery.

So how do you think the Redskins will fare in 2011?