Photo by michael starghill

On the same day that he received the Washington Post’s nod, At-Large contender David Grosso should be happy to know that he’s in a statistical dead heat with incumbent Councilmember Michael A. Brown (I-At Large).

According to a poll commissioned by the City Paper and WAMU’s The Kojo Nnamdi Show, 26 percent of voters are with Brown, while 21 percent are with Grosso. The margin of error is 2.8 percent. Additionally, 32 percent of voters are still undecided, while are in the single digits: Republican Mary Brooks Beatty is at nine percent, A.J. Cooper at seven, Statehood Green Ann Wilcox at five percent, and fellow Post endorsee Leon Swain at one percent. Here’s how Brown and Grosso’s support breaks down across the city—and yes, it’s exactly what you’d expect:

The poll shows a similar geographic and racial split to the ones that have appeared in other recent D.C. elections. Grosso’s winning white voters 39-10 (with 29 percent undecided), while Brown is winning black voters 43-7 (also with 29 percent undecided). Grosso’s doing best in Ward 2 (where he gets 25 percent), Ward 3 (26 percent), and Ward 6 (37 percent), while Brown is strongest in Ward 4 (28 percent), Ward 5 (44 percent), Ward 7 (39 percent), and Ward 8 (46 percent).

The timing of the poll is key, though: it was conducted before the Post and a number of other papers issued endorsements, and only days after Grosso reported having close to three times as much money in the bank as Brown. That’ll matter in the final days, since Grosso can blanket the city with mailers—he’s already sent one out on education—and urge people to come out and vote for him. (Grosso is leading a rally in Dupont Circle tomorrow.) Brown, whose campaign was the victim of a $113,000 theft, has much less to work with.

The poll also raises the usual question that has dogged the last few elections: should challengers in the single-digits just drop out and send their support to the contender that seems closest to unseating the incumbent? Challengers split the vote in the April primary against Councilmember Vincent Orange (D-At Large) and in the 2011 special election, so is it time to think of the greater goal versus the individual gain? That being said, it’s also likely that Cooper and Swain are taking votes from Brown, and that this is an election where voters can cast ballot for two candidates other than the incumbents.

The poll also found that—surprise!—President Obama is leading Mitt Romney 88 percent to eight percent. Now if only someone would tell those damn kids…