Dwayne De Rosario prepares for action at training on Saturday afternoon. Photo by Pablo Maurer.
With D.C. United’s biggest game in half a decade only hours away, I’m still feeling fairly confident that the black and red will erase the two-goal aggregate deficit they’ve created for themselves, vanquishing the Dynamo and in the process advancing to MLS Cup. Gothamist’s resident Red Bulls fan and wet blanket Dan Dickinson sees things differently. And why wouldn’t he—he’s only recently finished mopping up his tears and taking down his Hans Backe posters. I’ve asked him to give me three reasons why he thinks United will go quietly into the night, and I’ve provided three reasons why the Anacostia will run orange with Dynamo blood. Win or lose, I’ll see you guys at RFK in just a little bit.
WHY THEY’LL LOSE
Dan Dickinson, Gothamist, @GothamistDan
1. United Is Running Out Of Endurance
The press guide for the game has seven different United players in various states of injury, and Andy Najar remains suspended through today’s game. While it’s been a pretty remarkable run since DeRo got his MCL injury, this team is digging into reserves of reserves, and they did not show well in Houston. Add in the possibility of overtime, an overwhelming urge to stick DeRo back in at some point, and the possibility of another injury or red card hitting the team, and roster management could quickly become a nightmare for Ben Olsen.
2. Houston’s Been Here Before—Two Weeks Ago
Up by two goals after a convincing home performance, heading on the road to a team with an impressive home record? Houston just ran through this script when they took down the top seed, Sporting Kansas City, at the start of the month. They bunkered hard—three attempts on goal to SKC’s 20, and holding only 28.6% of possession—and ground out the needed result. Sporting Kansas City basically played their best eleven and couldn’t break Dom Kinnear’s side. Who’s going to put the ball in the net for D.C.—Lionard Pajoy? (Cue laugh track.)
3. Holy Toledo
It’d be hard to look at the lineups for this match and notice a man who needs little introduction: Baldomero Toledo. If you remember New England getting two questionable goals at RFK early last year, that was his doing. If you remember the three red cards of Vancouver vs. New England a few weeks later, that was him as well. Toledo’s been less visible this year, but the math doesn’t favor United: in the seven games in the RefRefs database where he officiated United, D.C. scored .5 less goals than average—just 0.71 a game. Houston still manages to play near their averages, managing 1.33 goals per game when he officiates.
I’m hoping tonight’s match will end without any screaming about the officials, but Toledo is a magnet for controversy and the match could easily swing on a blown call.
WHY THEY’LL WIN
Pablo Maurer, DCist, @DCist_Pablo
1. A two-goal victory is a surprisingly easy task.
I’ll openly acknowledge that the pit that United have dug for themselves here isn’t exactly shallow. Scoring two goals against a Houston squad that’s been the surprise of the post-season is a tall order. But a quick look at United’s results this year tells you that it’s far from an insurmountable task. They’ve won by two goals or more seven times—four times at home. In their 4-1 thumping of FC Dallas back in March, they found the back of the net three times in 15 minutes.
And yes, I know that two goals will only get United to extra time and PK’s—but it’s a starting point. DCU clearly has the edge in added time—the team’s been nearly unbeatable in RFK this year, even when the facility has been half-empty. Tonight’s match is a sellout. Houston, on the other hand, has been downright awful on the road, going 3-5-9.
2. Dwayne De Rosario
Much has been made at this point of how good United has been without De Rosario. While United have been near unbeatable, they’ve been winning ugly and not scoring a lot of goals—and that won’t get the job done tonight. There are several question marks surrounding the game, injury-wise. While Marcelo Saragosa and Brandon McDonald seem like they’ll be relatively good to go, Chris Pontius remains injured and will likely miss the match. Without Pontius, United will need something huge from DeRo, and I firmly believe he’ll deliver.
How many minutes he’ll see remains a mystery—I’ve said all week they should probably start him, bringing Branko Boskovic in at halftime or early in the second half if needed. But DeRo could also provide a huge spark coming off the bench late in the game. Either way, look for the Canadian to make his mark on this one.
3. They just don’t know any better.
Much has been made of United’s lack of playoff experience—and I’m not going to sit here and completely disregard that. That having been said, these kids don’t know they’re supposed to lose this game. They didn’t know that in Harrison a couple of weeks ago either, where they walked right into Red Bull Arena and beat a team that had more games of World Cup experience than they had in the MLS post-season. While the sight of Bill Hamid marching up and down a hallway pounding his chest and screaming “THEY CAN’T HOLD US BACK” might seem naive to some, it’s genuine. The attitude at training all week hasn’t been one of panic—it’s been one of “we got this.” If United make Houston play their game—if they don’t push too high early and give up a Houston goal on the counter—they’ll do just fine.
