Councilmember Tommy Wells (D-Ward 6) is in. Councilmember Jack Evans (D-Ward 2) has pledged to run, Councilmember Muriel Bowser (D-Ward 4) is a likely contender and even former City Administrator Robert Bobb has said that he might throw his hat in the ring. All these people want to replace Mayor Vince Gray come 2015, but they might have to contend with what seemed downright impossible only months ago—that Gray himself could stand for re-election.

Today the Post delves into the issue, saying that the biggest unknown moving towards the April 2014 Democratic primary is whether Gray will opt to run again. They weigh the pros and cons, but don’t get much for Gray on the issue: “I’ll make up my mind when the spirit moves me,” he told them.

There are plenty of reasons to think that Gray won’t run again: that $653,000 shadow campaign remains under investigation, and the many scandals that haunted Gray during his first 18 months in office would make for easy attack ad copy. Additionally, the Post writes, it’s unclear how many of his 2010 campaign staff and volunteers would return for round two, and his (legitimate) fundraising capacities might have been diminished by the shadow campaign scandal.

Then again, Gray’s got plenty of talking points in his own favor. As political consultant and local pundit Chuck Thies recently pointed out, Gray’s State of the District Address—and the $100 million he promised to put into affordable housing—sounded like a stump speech in the making. More residents, lower homicide rates, tons of cranes dotting the city’s skyline: One City has become Boomtown, it seems.

If he does choose to run, it’ll certainly make the next 15 months of legislating particularly messy. If and when Bowser and Evans join Wells in challenging Gray, everything they do will be seen through the prism of mayoral politics. Should Gray decide to try for a second term, the same will apply to him. This awkward dynamic similarly pervaded the 2010 race, but at least it was relatively short-lived: Gray only decided to challenge Mayor Adrian Fenty five months before the Democratic primary.