Councilmember Muriel Bowser (D-Ward 4)

A poll released and commissioned by Muriel Bowser’s mayoral campaign finds the Councilmember with the best chance of beating Mayor Vincent Gray in the April primary.

According to the poll results, 20 percent of likely Democratic primary voters would stick with Gray, while 18 percent would go with Bowser. Councilmembers Jack Evans and Tommy Wells each pulled in 15 percent of the voters, while Vincent Orange secured nine and 23 percent of voters are undecided. It appears that restauranteur Andy Shallal and State Department aide Reta Jo Lewis weren’t included.

The GarinHartYang-conducted survey, which polled 502 voters between January 6 and 9, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Bowser’s campaign chair Bill Lightfoot said in a release the poll “shows that Muriel Bowser is the only candidate to beat Vince Gray.” The campaign described the result of the poll as a “statistical tie,” although the term can be misleading. Indeed, there’s around a 65 percent probability that Gray is ahead of Bowser.

Of the four highest polling candidates, Bowser was the least known, with 61 percent of voters responding that they don’t know her name or are neutral toward her. Compare that to Gray’s 25 percent, Evans’ 47 percent and Wells’ 53 percent.

A Washington Post poll released this week found Gray with a much larger lead over Bowser.