Photo by Rolenz.
Metro’s ridership numbers are declining, and it’s because of all of you teleworking Federal government employees, according to a new report from WMATA.
OK, that’s not entirely true. It’s also because of the increase in bike and bus commuting, the rising prices to ride Metro, the changing regional economy, and declining federal employment. One of the main takeaways from the report, dubbed the “Metrorail Ridership Discussion,” is that after a 15-year period of growth, Metro ridership, in the last two years, has begun to decline. Though Metro ridership saw a slight decline around 2008-2009 due to the recession, the report concludes that the decline in the last two years is “more [substantial].”
According to the report, D.C. was the only one of the top 15 in the country (by employment) that showed a decline in gross regional product between 2012 and 2013. The reason for the recent decline, Metro says, is because of factors such as an increase in telework and alternative work schedules (the latest OPM survey found that 10 percent of federal employees telecommute at least once a week), coupled with a growth in bus and bike modes (bike commuting has doubled in four years from 2.2 percent to 4.5 percent), and increasing pricing to ride Metro.
This is the first time since the recession that ridership has declined, and Metro officials warn that it “will be felt in the FY2016 budget.” Still, while ridership is down now, the report is optimistic that it will pick back up:
In the long-term, the federal government is not going away, but most observers do not
see it as a source of future growth. Despite this, the region remains a desirable place to
live and work, and various medium- and long-term forecasts reflect that. Estimates for
2025 provided by Moody’s show total federal employment continuing to decline slightly,
but outweighed by robust growth of 15-20% in sectors such as professional services,
education, health, and state/local government. These are all sectors in which Metrorail
has and will continue to compete strongly for ridership. Similarly, overall population
growth for the region is forecast at approximately 13% by 2025.
Moreover, Metro says that the reduction in the “intensity” of scheduled weekend trackwork has caused an increase in weekend ridership and they “expect this trend to continue.” (Though maybe not on the Red Line given what’s planned).
You can read the full report below:
