Via NOAA.

AccuWeather released its winter forecast yesterday, predicting that Washingtonians will have another particularly cold winter, giving everyone a chance to misuse the word “polar vortex” again.

As it turns out, that might not be entirely accurate (other than, you know, being a “prediction”). According to AccuWeather’s winter forecast, “the polar vortex, the culprit responsible for several days of below-zero temperatures last year, will slip down into the region from time to time, delivering blasts of arctic air.” But according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, that might not be the case. In their forecast for the winter, they say that a repeat of last year’s “exceptionally cold and snowy” weather is unlikely to repeat itself:

Last year’s winter was exceptionally cold and snowy across most of the United States, east of the Rockies. A repeat of this extreme pattern is unlikely this year, although the Outlook does favor below-average temperatures in the south-central and southeastern states.

Instead, the NOAA says that we can expect “above-average” precipitation in our region, whereas AccuWeather predicted not that much snowfall this season. However, the NOAA doesn’t say if that’s going to be snow or rain:

The Precipitation Outlook favors above-average precipitation across the southern tier, from the southern half of California, across the Southwest, South-central, and Gulf Coast states, Florida, and along the eastern seaboard to Maine. Above-average precipitation also is favored in southern Alaska and the Alaskan panhandle. Below-average precipitation is favored in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest.

And to make things even more confusing, the National Weather Service’s forecast for this winter is about as indecisive as it gets. From the Capital Weather Gang:

For the fourth year in a row, the National Weather Service (NWS) says it can’t confidently tell Washingtonians what kind of winter temperatures to expect. Its official winter outlook issued today offers “equal chances” for a cold, mild, or “normal” winter in Washington.

Thought the NWS’s temperature forecast is pretty vague, it does say we will probably have a wetter than normal winter, but, like the NOAA, doesn’t say if that means, rain or snow.

Why so indecisive, NWS? El Nino, mostly. CWG says that “the major factor governing this year’s NWS winter outlook” is whether or not the ocean-atmospheric phenomenon known as “El Nino” will materialize, of which there’s a one-in-three chance that it won’t.

In short, who knows what kind of winter we’re going to have! Be prepared for anything.