Photo by Christopher Skillman.

Photo by Christopher Skillman.

Update 2: The National Park Service now says peak bloom will occur on the later end of its earlier prediction.

Update: The National Park Service just moved up its projected date for peak bloom by nearly two weeks, citing “this week’s sustained, unseasonably warm temperatures.”

Now, it’s saying that cherry blossom peak bloom will occur from March 18 to 23, beginning two days before the start of the festival and a week before Capital Weather Gang’s prediction.

“Although the National Park Service factored above average March temperatures into the original prediction date, potentially record-setting temperatures, averaging nearly 20 degrees above normal for the next week, have greatly accelerated the bloom watch,” an NPS release says.

As a result, NPS is switching up the dates of the Tidal Basin Welcome Area to March 18 through April 3, from a previously scheduled April 2 through 17.

Original: Uh oh, Mom and Dad are fighting again! The Capital Weather Gang predicts that peak bloom for the cherry blossoms will arrive about a week earlier than National Park Service says.

Capital Weather Gang says that peak bloom—when at least 70 percent of the trees surrounding the tidal basin are blossoming—will occur between March 24 and 28, centering around March 26. Compare that to NPS’ prediction of peak bloom from March 31 through April 3. Both are earlier than the historical average of April 4, according to Cherry Blossom Watch.

“March temperatures are frequently a key predictor for cherry blossom bloom dates; the warmer March is, the earlier buds typically burst,” says CWG. Reference your own sweaty pits today, and forecasts for continuing high temperatures this week, as evidence that this March will be a hot one.

Whether you side with CWG or NPS, looks like peak bloom will happen during the Cherry Blossom Festival from March 20 through April 17.

Filed Under: capital weather gang, cherry blossom, cherry blossom festival, peak bloom,