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As local television outlets prepared their business plans about a year ago, they had reason to believe they were in for another gangbuster election year with supposed nominees Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton and related SuperPACs ready to open their wallets in battleground Virginia.
Revenues were trending upward in recent presidential election years. Two weeks before the 2012 election, total political ads aired had already surpassed 2008 and 2004 numbers, according to the Wesleyan Media Project, even though the ads appeared in fewer media markets than previous cycles. The Washington D.C. media market benefited from the concentration, with the sixth most TV ads by volume.
But now, the landscape looks bleaker for the same outlets who did so well in 2012.
“These are challenging times,” says Mark Burdett, president and general manager of WUSA 9.
Jeb Bush is not the Republican nominee. Instead, the standard-bearer for the GOP is Donald Trump, who received $2 billion in free media, according to calculations by the New York Times in May. Why pay for commercials when news outlets will interview you and show your tweets for free?
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, who has already spent more than $77 million on television and radio ads, dropped Virginia from her ad buy in early August, confirming later that the campaign won’t air ads in the state in September or October. This follows a major Clinton SuperPAC, Priorities USA, deciding to suspend ads in Virginia, as well as Colorado and Pennsylvania, until at least September 20.
“We know, at the moment, these are tough states for Donald Trump and there isn’t as much of a need for us to air ads there,” Justin Barasky, communications director for Priorities USA, told CNN.
Virginia only became a battleground state recently. Before President Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012, Virginia’s 13 electoral votes went to the GOP every cycle since 1968. But now the purple state is looking bluer and bluer, especially with Clinton’s selection of Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate. The Real Clear Politics average has her up 13 points over Trump.
Add in the fact that there are no senate or gubernatorial races this cycle in Old Dominion, and local news outlets are facing what Georgetown media professor Christopher Chambers calls “a three-pronged monster.”
“They’re going to lose out on a significant amount of revenue,” says Chambers. “This is a time when they’re really counting on [political ads] to bump them up.”
Indeed, Pew Research Center’s State of the News Media report notes that “local TV station revenue typically follows a cyclical pattern of increasing in election years and decreasing in non-election years.”
An NBC4 Washington spokesperson wouldn’t let on whether the political landscape has decreased revenues. “It’s too early to say. If this election has taught us anything, it is that anything can happen.” WJLA and Fox 5 did not respond to requests for comment.
There’s a glimmer of hope for our broadcast friends, though. Earlier this week, the Trump campaign announced its biggest ad buy so far—$10 million focused on nine battleground states, including Virginia.
But even that is a pittance compared to the spending in 2012. “It’s pretty crazy right now,” says Chambers. “You’re gonna see astronomical figures in 2016, but it will be more concentrated now, and that’s what’s going to be interesting.”
Rachel Kurzius