(Photo by cherryblossomwatch)

It’s looking more and more like the worst effects of Hurricane Florence will stay south of D.C.

Still, it’s too soon for the city to fully let its guard down—storm paths can change late in the game, D.C. soil is waterlogged, and rivers are already swollen from higher-than-normal amounts of rain over the last several months. That means there’s an increased risk of flooding in the District, even with moderate amounts of rain.

“Given how saturated the soil is already, it isn’t going to take much for trees to topple over. The heavy rainfall and flood threat is definitely at the top of the list,” Kyle Pallozzi, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, told DCist on Monday.

But some parts of the city are at higher risk than others. Here are the areas of D.C. likeliest to be underwater if the District sees lots of Florence-related rain over the weekend.

The National Mall

Areas around the National Mall are some of the lowest points in the city. Flooding from the Potomac River in 1936 and 1942 overwhelmed the National Mall, stranding the Jefferson Memorial like an island. In 2006, persistent rain flooded the National Archives building, the Internal Revenue Service, the Commerce Department, the Justice Department, and several museums on the mall.

That’s why the Army Corp of Engineers installed a levee across 17th Street in 2014. It’s meant to keep all of downtown D.C. safe from flooding off the Potomac—though it wouldn’t be much help if, as in the 2006 storm, the rainwater just became too much for the city’s storm drains to bear.

Mike Litterst, a spokesperson for the National Park Service, says that there’s a crew ready to go with 1,000 sandbags for the National Mall area, if they’re needed.

The Wharf

The new businesses on the Wharf have been there open for less than a year, and already they’re facing the test of floods. Back in 2003, when rains from Hurricane Isabel hit the District, the Southwest waterfront was inundated.

“The cleanup was pretty bad. There was kitchen equipment floating everywhere,” Nick Fontana, the executive manager of a hospitality company that operates Pearl Street Warehouse on the Wharf, who was at Maria’s Cantina on the Wharf back in 2003, told WTOP. “The nastiness of the water is what people don’t understand — with all the sewage coming up, all the grease from the restaurants, there was stuff from the fish market floating everywhere.”

Diane Groomes, director of security and public safety for The Wharf Association, said the association is watching flooding predictions closely for Florence.

According to WTOP, however, the new businesses have a higher elevation than the old ones, and shouldn’t be too affected by flooding.

The Capitol Riverfront/Yards Park

Hurricane Isabel also caused major tidal flooding in Navy Yard in 2003, and too much water this weekend could cause flooding again.

Bonnie Trein, a spokesperson for the Capitol Riverfront Business Improvement District, says the area has already had instances of water coming over the boardwalk this week. The BID is mainly concerned about Yards Park, which Trein says is the likeliest area to experience flooding. The Canal Basin (the pool that the bridge goes over) has been drained and closed, even though it usually remains open until October, Trein says.

The boardwalk on the Capitol Riverfront has a few restaurants open on it now, and those have been sandbagged, Trein says. Other businesses in the area are on higher ground, she says, and they shouldn’t see flooding.

Georgetown Harbour

In 2011, Georgetown Harbour officials failed to deploy a levee to protect the area from flooding, and the boardwalk area was inundated. Restaurants and businesses had to be evacuated, the gas and water turned off.

Kristian De Meo, a spokesperson at MRP Realty, which manages the Georgetown Harbour, said they’re prepping for possible flooding.

We are following our protocol for projected flooding conditions which may affect the property. These entail bringing up floodgates based on the river levels projected by National Weather Service,” De Meo says. “Currently, we have floodgates raised at our property along the Potomac River and up 30th and 31st Streets as we continue to monitor river levels in partnership with National Weather Service. We have our engineers and security teams onsite 24/7 to ensure the stability and success of the property flood protection system.”

Rock Creek Park

Here’s one everybody knows: Rock Creek Park is always flooding. The trails running along the creek often become unusable for bikers during heavy or persistent rains.

It’s safe to assume that, if we get a lot of rain from Florence, this is a place you’ll want to avoid this weekend.

Alexandria

Alexandria has already been dealing with a lot of flooding this week from high tide conditions and lots of rain. Here’s what it looked like in Old Town on Monday:

The city has been giving out sand bags since Monday.

Let us know if we missed any spots.

More:
One Way To Protect The National Mall From Flooding: A Huge Underground Cistern
With Hurricane Florence Looming, Here’s The Status Of D.C.-Area Events This Weekend
Mayor Bowser Declares State Of Emergency In D.C. Ahead Of Hurricane Florence
Hurricane Florence Is Traveling A Similar Path As A 1933 Storm That Got Very, Very Close To D.C.