(Photo by Daniel X. O’Neil / Wikimedia Commons)

(Photo by Daniel X. O’Neil / Wikimedia Commons)

On Friday evening, the Washington Post editorial board published its local endorsements for the 2018 general election. Per usual, local politicos either cheered the newspaper’s picks or expressed utter disgust with them—including some politicians themselves.

The newspaper made a few expected choices, endorsing Democratic incumbents Brianne Nadeau in Ward 1, Kenyan McDuffie in Ward 5, and Charles Allen in Ward 6 (the board has endorsed all three of these councilmembers in the past). But there were a couple of wave-makers in the board’s picks, too, namely endorsements of independent Ward 3 challenger Petar A. Dimtchev over incumbent Democrat Mary Cheh, and independent At-Large challenger Dionne Reeder over incumbent Elissa Silverman. (The Post also endorsed four candidates in the D.C. State Board of Education race.)

Mayor Muriel Bowser, who has thrown her support behind Reeder, appeared pleased, quoting lines from the endorsement in favor of her preferred candidate in the At-large race:

Elissa Silverman? Not so much.

The Post’s editorial board wrote about its “profound policy disagreements” with Silverman, specifically calling out the paid family leave law that the councilmember championed. More stingingly, it criticized Silverman’s “caustic treatment of people,” a charge that mirrors what Bowser has claimed about Silverman. It stuck out to several observers:

The editorial board has consistently come out in favor of Bowser, endorsing the mayor and her political allies in elections and generally supporting her policy objectives. The board’s main criticism of largely popular Ward 3 Councilmember Mary Cheh, for example, is her insistence on challenging mayoral control of the public school system. Silverman and the mayor have often been at odds, including on issues like the cost of the Wizards’ practice facility at St. Elizabeths and the handling of anti-Semitic comments by government officials.

But for all the celebration and bellyaching, what impact does the Post’s editorial board actually have these days?

DCist went back to look at the editorial board’s track record in picking winning D.C. Council candidates over the last two election cycles, in both primaries and general elections (D.C. is such a heavily Democratic city that primary contests are often effectively the general election). It has a mixed record.

In 2016, the board only endorsed D.C. Council candidates in the primaries (the general was truly that sleepy). All four were allies of Bowser, and only one won. In the At-large race, it chose incumbent Vincent Orange over challengers Robert White and David Garber. White managed a rare win in a race against an incumbent with a crowded field, and went on to take the seat in the general election. In the Ward 7 contest, the board chose incumbent Yvette Alexander over former mayor Vincent Gray; Gray won the primary and the general election. It also went for incumbent LaRuby May over Trayon White in Ward 8—White won that contest and the general. The editorial board’s only winner in the bunch was Brandon Todd, Bowser’s protege in Ward 4, over Leon Andrews.

The Post’s endorsements aligned more closely with results in the 2014 primaries, when it endorsed Phil Mendelson for council chairman over Calvin Gurley; Brianne Nadeau for Ward 1; Kenyan McDuffie for Ward 5; and Charles Allen for Ward 6, all of whom won. The Post’s editorial board also endorsed challenger Nathan Bennett Fleming in the At-Large primary contest against Anita Bonds, which Bonds won handily.

In its 2014 general election endorsements, the board again snubbed Bonds to endorse two challengers, Courtney Snowden and Robert White. Both of them lost that contest against Bonds and Silverman.

The Post editorial board isn’t trying to predict winners so much as it’s making recommendations. But it appears that D.C. voters aren’t necessarily taking heed.

The newspaper shouldn’t feel too bad, however: a 2004 Pew study found that endorsements (by other politicians, celebrities, and newspapers) were a “minor factor” for voters in making their decisions. Back in 2016, nearly every major local and national newspaper backed Hillary Clinton—and we all know how that turned out.

DCist doesn’t make endorsements, but here’s our 2018 general election voter guide.

(Chart by Maria Carrasco / DCist)

(Chart by Maria Carrasco / DCist)

A graphic has been updated to reflect the correct result of the Ward 6 primary race in 2018. The story has also been updated to reflect that Calvin Gurley ran against Phil Mendelson in the 2014 primary, not Ed Lazere.

Filed Under: 2018 election, d.c. council, election 2018, endorsements, washington post,