Crystal City, the site of Amazon’s new campus.

Tyrone Turner / WAMU

Northern Virginia officials aren’t the only ones who’ve spent the past year knee-deep in negotiations with Amazon.

The Jeff & Joseph Group, which is affiliated with TTR Sotheby’s International Realty, has been in conversation with the Seattle-based tech giant since the spring. The fruits of their labor? “MyHQHome,” a service they have launched to assist Amazon employees relocating to the area as the company opens a major new campus in Crystal City National Landing.

The real estate brokerage is the official relocation company affiliated with Jeff Bezos’ behemoth, according to Jeff Lockard, a co-partner with the Jeff & Joseph Group and a senior vice president at TTR Sotheby’s. Amazon has promised 25,000 new high-paying jobs in the region over the next two decades.

Lockard suspects that many will purchase homes rather than rent, given their large salaries. The neighborhoods that “MyHQHome” is specifically recommending to Amazon employees include Del Ray and Old Town in Alexandria and North Arlington. As for D.C., “we anticipate that Metro lines are going to play an important part in this,” says Lockard. “We expect that the Southwest Waterfront, anywhere up and down the 14th Street Corridor, anywhere there’s easy access to the Yellow Line” will be hot spots.

Those areas already have higher median sale prices than the D.C. metro area more broadly, and prices there have followed the regional trend upwards over the past half-decade, according to Redfin.

A graph of the median sale prices from January 2012-October 2018 in the metro area more broadly, and four neighborhoods likely to be prime locations for Amazon employees. Graph made with the help of the Redfin Data Center

“The real effects won’t be seen until 12-16 months from now,” says Lockard. “In terms of impacting urban density, we’ll see a lot of construction start, but really, it’s going to be about 18 months before we really start to see those first things come on line. That’s when we’re going to really start to feel and see the impact. We’ll start to see demand increase, we’ll see the density start to increase.”

The worrying for many residents, though, has already begun, particularly with respect to housing. Northern Virginians expressed concern about Amazon’s arrival at a town hall event in Crystal City on Monday, hosted by Kojo Nnamdi and WAMU (which owns DCist). “Let’s call a spade a spade,” said Danny Cendejas, an organizer with Latinx advocacy collective La ColectiVA. “It is gentrification.”

Some renters feared getting priced out, and one homeowner said that an increase in value would make already-high taxes skyrocket.

The Washington region already has a shortage of affordable housing, and Lockard expects that in the coming years, there will be “much more demand on the D.C. market and we would expect that prices increase.”

He thinks that the city will become a “mini-Manhattan”—meaning a place where land rights and land itself become even more costly. “People will get used to smaller spaces and the prices will increase as we move forward,” Lockard says. In the northern Virginia suburbs, most of which don’t have height restrictions, expects to see high rises pop up amid a big increase in density.

So will these changes push lower- and middle-income residents out?

“I think that’s already happened,” says Lockard. “That’s been going on for the past 10 years, and I think the city is going to have to allocate more funds to make affordable housing more of a priority … A lot of folks have been misplaced already—retirees and folks that have been in the District a long time. There should be some way to make sure they get to enjoy the city’s progress.”

But as of now, he doesn’t see offerings catered to low or middle-income residents. “Today we’re not seeing developers building a lot more condominiums. We’re seeing luxury apartments,” he says.

But local public officials (nearly all politicians across the commonwealth are in favor of the deal, with a few exceptions) are making the case that issues like affordable housing existed before the Amazon deal, and now they can better secure resources to tackle those issues. Alexandria’s mayor-elect, Justin Wilson, said at the town hall that the new Amazon hub has given Northern Virginia officials more of a case to make to the Commonwealth to invest in affordable housing.

Right now, the “MyHQHome” service is still in its early stages. “It looks like people are just asking questions at this point,” Lockard says. “We anticipate in the next year and half to five years to be very, very busy.”