The day has finally arrived: The National Park Service has released its peak bloom prediction. This year, if all goes as planned, more than 70 percent of the blossoms on the trees around the tidal basin will flower between April 3 and April 6. (There are already green buds on the trees, right on schedule).

If it holds steady, these dates fall comfortably within this year’s National Cherry Blossom Festival, which is scheduled for March 20 through April 13. It’s also right around the historical average, according to Cherry Blossom Watch. The average date for peak bloom between 2000-2010 fell right around April 1. Last year, peak bloom happened on April 5.

NPS’s prediction could, of course, change (it usually does) depending on how cold or warm the weather gets as March goes on. Warmer weather will lead to a faster peak bloom, and colder weather could delay it.

In case you’re not quite sure what on earth I’m talking about, here’s some background: Washington, D.C. has a collection of beautiful cherry trees around the Tidal Basin and the National Mall, gifted to the city from Japan. Each spring, the city holds its National Cherry Blossom Festival, when hundreds of thousands of tourists flock to the city for a chance to see the trees while they bloom.

Every year, NPS, whose horticulturists care for the trees, issues a prediction for when 70 percent of the blooms on the trees will be open. This is known as “peak bloom.” Depending on weather conditions, it can last anywhere from four to 10 days. (But FYI: the trees will still be blooming for days before and after their actual peak).

The Washington Post’s Capital Weather Gang also issued its peak bloom prediction this week—according to them, it’ll land “between April 1 and 5, centered on the 3rd.”