Metrorail ridership is at a nearly 20-year low, according to the latest Metro ridership report.

Average weekday ridership was 595,000 in last half of 2018. The last time it was that low was in 2000, when weekday ridership averaged about 577,000.

The transit agency points to temporary capital projects that shut down parts of the Red Line and other single tracking projects as factors.

The numbers report sparked concern from many Metro watchers, but they are a little more complicated than first glance suggests.

Metro’s yearly data for average weekday ridership only looks at the month of May in each year because it’s the most consistent “control” month. It doesn’t have any major events, like cherry blossom season, bad weather or many holidays that would throw off ridership numbers.

The latest numbers cover July through December 2018. So, while ridership during this period indeed is the lowest in almost two decades, the data isn’t looking at comparable time periods.

Contributing Factors

Metrorail ridership peaked in 2008 with almost 752,000 average weekday rides and has had a nearly 17 percent slide since.

In a statement, Metro officials cited several capital improvement projects in the second half of 2018, like the closures of the Rhode Island Avenue and Brookland stations, as contributing to the decline. The single-tracking on the Orange and Silver lines through portions of downtown were also part of that equation, officials said.

Metro called the declines “temporary” as it works to improve safety and reliability.

But more disruption is on the way. This summer, Metro is closing six stations on the Blue and Yellow lines to reconstruct crumbling outdoor station platforms.

The shutdown of the Huntington, Eisenhower Ave., King St.-Old Town, Braddock Road, Franconia Springfield and Van Dorn St. stations will affect about 17,000 weekday rush hour customers, about 8 percent of peak weekday ridership.

An optimist might say the good news here is that Metrorail has stopped its ridership loses. A pessimist might see a 100-day 6-station shutdown this upcoming summer and wonder what impact that + future projects will have. https://t.co/UwsSYi3iPQ #wmata

— Metro Reasons (@MetroReasons) March 4, 2019

There are several beneficial factors that should point to a growth in Metro ridership:

• The region’s population has grown by 1.4 million since 2000.
• As transit-oriented development has grown, more people live around stations now than they did in the 2000s.
• Metro has since added 10 new stations since then.

But fewer people are riding now than in 2000.

That’s alarming to Stephen Fuller, a professor at George Mason University who studies the region’s economy. He says Metro had to focus on reliability and safety, but it also needs to start bringing riders back.

“If Metro and government leaders think (ridership) is a self-correcting problem, after they get everything cleaned up, and fixed and we’re going to get them back … they’re going to be disappointed,” Fuller says. “And I don’t think that’s something Metro doesn’t already know.”

Indeed, the transit agency is implementing several initiatives and service improvements to attract riders back.

Last year Metro started the Rush Hour Promise, which credits riders if their commute is delayed by more than 10 minutes. Bikes are now allowed on trains during all hours of service.And in the next budget, General Manager Paul Wiedefeld has proposed boosting service by extending the Yellow Line to Greenbelt at all times and the Red Line to Glenmont at all times.

All Is Not Lost

Fuller says new employers like Amazon coming to Crystal City could have an added benefit of naturally attracting more Metrorail riders. He expects more companies to build or relocate around Metro stations.

“That would be a reversal to some of these (negative ridership) trends,” Fuller says. “I don’t think all is lost… there is some hope, but Metro does need to think differently about its commuting base than it has in the past.

“It isn’t just getting back the riders they had, because they’re gone,” he says.

Fuller says human behavior is hard to change. In the years since 2000, Metro took a hit as 25,000 federal government jobs disappeared or relocated. New jobs that have come to the region since then do not have the same kind of regular schedule as federal jobs, and many of those workers are choosing alternatives.

Additionally, those that used to take Metro changed their commuting habits during the years-long rehabilitation. Some have even retired, he said.

Fuller says Metro needs to attract new riders like new residents. He says it’s essential that WMATA make it easier for tourists to get around and hope that the younger generations continue to eschew cars for urban living, walking and transit use.

Metro isn’t alone in the struggle — transit ridership is down across the nation.

Experts point to low gas prices and a growing list of ways to get around like Uber and Lyft, bikeshare and electric scooters. Some of the rideshare carpooling services are cheap enough to compete with Metro. Some would-be commuters don’t even leave their homes, as telework options have expanded in recent years.

“We understand that people have an increasing variety of transportation choices,” Metro officials said in a statement.

And Metro’s track work and infrequent night and weekend service hasn’t helped lure riders either.

This story was originally published on WAMU.