The indicator tree has spoken: Peak bloom is now expected on April 1.

It’s a few days earlier than the National Park Service originally predicted (and within the dates expected by the Capital Weather Gang).

So how do they know?

One particular tree is like a really reliable Punxsutawney Phil. Every year it mysteriously blooms about a week earlier than the famed Yoshinos. And that’s about all anyone knows about the oracle of the cherry blossoms, which is located next to a large holly tree just east of the Jefferson Memorial (see here for specific directions).

“It remains a mystery as to who planted the tree, when it was planted, and even what species of cherry tree it is,” according to NPS.

The other big factor in bloom prediction is the weather.

Temperatures slated to be in the 70s on Saturday (a high of 74!!!) are likely to kick the trees into gear. Right now, the buds are in the third phase of development: “peduncle elongation” (hold your peduncle jokes, please). The next and final stop before peak bloom is “fluffy white.”

Once in bloom, the fragile flowers can last anywhere from four to ten days. The camera-toting hordes will, of course, be clustered around the Tidal Basin, but you can also find cherry trees all around the city.